About: Why the Lions?

Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP)

Sunday, June 30, 2019

2019 Seibu Lions Series Digest: Matsumoto wins third straight decision


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Pacific League play resumed after the Saitama Seibu Lions successfully went 10-8 against the Central League. In this first series against the Orix Buffaloes, the Lions took two out of three and jumped into A-class with the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters losing six in a row.

Here is how it all went down:

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The first game against Orix had Yoshinobu Yamamoto against Tatsuya Imai. An early timely hit from Koji Oshiro gave Orix a 1-0 lead in the first. The Lions squandered a bases-loaded, no out opportunity when Sosuke Genda struck out and Shuta Tonosaki's sacrifice fly attempt ending up being a double play as "Aito" Takeda was tagged out at the plate.

Imai's great effort was wasted as he only allowed that one run through eight innings. This one was all about Yamamoto, who successfully pitched a shutout on 124 pitches. Deunte Heath was lit up in the top of the 9th to put the icing on the cake.

Buffaloes 4, Lions 0 

Roster note:

-Masato Saito was promoted from ikusei and assigned jersey number 78. The Lions now have 67 players on their 70-man roster with three spots remaining open.

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Game two had Tsubasa Sakakibara against Keisuke Honda. The Lions jumped out to an early lead of 3-0 with timely hits from Genda, Tonosaki and Tomoya Mori through the first three innings.

Honda ended up cruising through six shutout innings while the bats stayed alive through Genda's four hit outing. Yuji Kaneko also hit his first HR of the season.

Lions 7, Buffaloes 0

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The rubber match had Wataru Matsumoto against Kohei Suzuki. This one had a slow start when Orix lead 2-0 in the beginning, but the Lions tied it in the third with the help of a timely hit from Shuta Tonosaki and a double steal.

After the Lions nabbed two more runs in the fourth inning, the Buffaloes pulled within one from a timely hit by Masataka Yoshida. When the were threatening on Matsumoto, a lineout and tagup ended any chance for more runs as the Lions rookie was pulled from the game.

Orix continued to blow chances for the rest of the day with 16 hits, but only three runs to show for it. Takeya "Okawari-kun" Nakamura made the Buffaloes pay when he cleared the bases on a double in the 7th inning. Home runs from Tomoya Mori and Tonosaki put icing on the cake in this laugher.

Lions 11, Buffaloes 3

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This was a solid series even though the hitting came up short against Yamamoto. The Orix Buffaloes came into this series red hot after interleague play, so taking two our of three works fine.

Now comes the road trip of death, with nine away games against the Fighters, Marines and Hawks with one game being a Softbank corporate party from Tokyo Dome. This should be a good test ahead for a team that won't be home until after the All-Star break.

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2019 NPB Power Rankings: July Edition


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The 2019 NPB season just concluded its interleague portion of the schedule with June coming to a close. A proper shuffle takes place with some teams taking a rise, while others fall. It was another year where the Pacific League won the head-to-head battle, so we'll factor this in accordingly for this month's edition.

1. [^] (6) Fukuoka Softbank Hawks (41-30-4, 14-7-2 in June)

The defending NPB champions won Interleague once again for the third time in four years. No Yuki Yanagita? No problem! They've had ups and downs offensively, but the supporting case seems to be doing fine without him. Defensive stalwarts Takuya Kai and Kenta Imamiya are both having decent years at the plate while Rei Takahashi and Kotaro Otake are proving to be solid support behind Kodai Senga in the rotation. Is the sky the limit for this Hawks team, looking to go for a three-peat? Nobuhiro Matsuda is still hitting well too while the rich get richer having Carter Stewart enter their system.

Lastly, a big welcome back goes to Tsuyoshi Wada, who returned to the ichi-gun from an injury for the first time since 2017.

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2. [^] (7) Yomiuri Giants (40-30-1, 15-7 in June)

A cold May was followed by a red hot June and a decent position in Interleague play. They're back in first place, but the Hiroshima Carp are still not far behind. Not every player they signed is living up to the hype, but Yoshihiro Maru and Dai-Kan Yoh definitely are as veterans. Time will tell if this 18-game stretch was fluky or for real when they see the Carp.

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3. [^] (4) Rakuten Eagles (39-32-2, 12-9-1 in June)

The Eagles continue to play well through the first half like it's 2017 again. Takahiro Norimoto shoudl be ready to go for the second half of the season while Takayuki Kishi is healthy. This group is very dependent on four guys for their offense and the pitching has done enough to get things done. Yuki Matsui appears to be continuing his trend in having a good year following a bad one.

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4. [^] (9) Yokohama DeNA Baystars (35-36-2, 13-8-2 in June) 

The Baystars were the only other team with a winning record in interleague play. This group is still home run dependent, but the starting pitching is beginning to come around. They have to like the value they're getting out of rookie Taiga Kamichatani while Shota Imanaga continues a dominant season.

They looked dead in the water after April, but they've climbed hump to put themselves in the hunt for postseason baseball. Alex Ramirez's job has been on the line since the start of the year.

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5. [=] Saitama Seibu Lions (38-34-1, 12-11 in June)

The Lions survive interleague play by not taking any big steps backward. Offense is still there and they're not doing it with just home runs from Hotaka Yamakawa and Takeya "Okawari-kun" Nakamura because there is balance. Pitching remains raw and they're still competing without opening day starter Shinsaburo Tawata.

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6. [v] (1) Hiroshima Carp (38-34-3, 6-15-2 in June)

The Catp take the largest fall after a nearly invincible May. They finished with the second worst interleague record as the Pacific League ate them alive. Their biggest positive is having Kris Johnson look strong while Makoto Aduwa has continued to eat innings. Daichi Osera is still the dominant ace continuing his form from last year.

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7. [^] (11) Orix Buffaloes (31-38-5, 12-9-2 in June)

No one benefited better in interleague play than the last-place Buffaloes, as they were only 4.5 games out of A-class when the 18-game stretch ended. Their pitching has shown they can compete, but will the self-inflicting mistakes stop? There are still offensive holes in the lineup, but Keita Nakagawa is a big reason they get credit for a good June.

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8. [=] Chiba Lotte Marines (34-36-2, 11-10-1 in June)

The Marines didn't fall backward, but they couldn't gain ground during Interleague play by having a losing record at 8-10. As much as Brandon Laird has improved their offense, the pitching is not where it needs to be if they want to be in A-class. Portions of their Core-4 in Shogo Nakamura and Ayumu Ishikawa have underachieved whether it's performance or injury related.

It's been a strange year where one obvious hole from 2018 looks fixed, yet they're just a bubble team with regression from their arms on the staff.

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9. [v] (2) Hanshin Tigers (35-36-4, 7-13-2 in June)

Like the Carp, the Tigers were sent back to earth by the Pacific League and even lost a series to their Kansai neighbors. Defense on the field has hurt their pitching staff and it doesn't show in the boxscore. Bullpen has given fans a scare, but they've continued to get it done ugly. These Tigers appears to be streaky, but the pitching will keep them competitive. It should be a good dog fight in their hunt for A-class under first-year skipper Yano.

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10. [v] (3) Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters (35-36-4, 9-12-2 in June)

The Fighters are still in the hunt, but their pitching staff took a blow when an accidental play took Naoyuki Uwasawa out for the season. Pitching will have to work as a team if they want to return to A-class, but this will be an uphill battle. Recently, they reacquired Mitsuo Yoshikawa from the Yomiuri Giants in a trade. It's possible he could eat up some innings so the team won't need to bullpen their way through games. They've had openers and short starts while being innovative, but it hasn't led to much success so far.

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11. [v] (10) Chunichi Dragons (33-39, 10-12 in June)

The Dragons rotation appears like it can't hold up outside of Yudai Ono and Yuya Yanagi carrying the load. Their bullpen is still a liability while they're inconsistent on offense. This is still a learning season for first-year skipper Tsuyoshi Yoda with several kids being thrown in while veterans like Daisuke Yamai will still get appearances.

On paper, this the making of a last place squad, yet they're 2.5 games out of A-class. Right now, it's tough to take them seriously. We'll revisit this in a month to see what happens next.

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12. [=] Tokyo Yakult Swallows (28-46-2, 7-15 in June)

Interleague play should have all-but sealed the 2019 Swallows season. At 18 games under .500, it's too much of a mountain to overcome. Pitching, defense and a lack of timely hitting are all hurting this team, but there is one thing they can cling to: The power hitting success of 19-year old 2017 first round pick Munetaka Murakami. He'll be keeping this team interesting while the wins and losses will come and go.

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Overall:

A-class races are interesting while both pennants are not runaways yet. Only one team is all but dead while everyone else is still competing. We should see another team fall to the pits and join the Swallows soon. If anything, the Baystars getting hot combined with the Hanshin Tigers falling makes the race interesting in the Central.

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Thursday, June 27, 2019

Lions survive interleague play, but what is this team?


The Saitama Seibu Lions went 10-8 in Interleague play, which is good enough for a winning record. However, it's easy to think they were a few plays away from 12-6 or as low as 8-10 depending on how you see the glass.

A few blown saves by the bullpen and some clutch hitting evened things out, but if anything, the Lions didn't fold or take a step backward through this stretch. They finished tied with Rakuten for 5th in the Interleague Standings.

Here are some observations on the team since interleague play concluded:

Shinsaburo Tawata and Daiki Enokida, where are you? 

Tawata was deactivated before interleague play began and he didn't even start a game. Recently, he struggled in a ni-gun outing against Rakuten this week. Enokida saw one outing before being yanked off the ichi-gun in favor or spot starters. He has also had a slow season after a strong 2018. Regression was expected for Enokida, but Tawata underperforming is a cause for concern.

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Kyle Martin took advantage of the Central League

Interleague play provides a change of pace of not seeing the same five teams over and over again. Martin was a midseason acquisition in the middle of 2018 and skipped the entire interleague stretch last year. Having not seen any opponent prior to June, his off speed pitches were baffling the Central League batters and it contributed to a success. He was getting meaningful innings in the 6th and 7th innings over Deunte Heath if the team had a lead.

This could possibly be lightning in a bottle for three weeks with Pacific League opponents coming back, but Lions fans can only hope Martin builds off this stretch and remains confident the rest of the way. 

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Takeya Nakamura can still hit

Mr. Okawari-kun can mash and isn't completely over the hill yet. He was either clutch or hitting or power which is a perfect luxury to have when batting 6th in the order. They haven't needed him to be the guy anymore with the emergence of Hotaka Yamakawa, but when he does contribute, it's huge.

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Right field is back to being a revolving door

Fumikazu Kimura was given the starting role at the beginning of the year, but it's obvious he is a replacement and spell OF at best. Guys like Daisuke Togawa, Shogo Saito and even "Aito" Takeda have seen time in right field and it's likely the team will go by committee depending on the matchup they like. Before the season started, it was possible to put Shuta Tonosaki in right field, but the team likes him at 2B and he is a better fielder than predecessor Hideto Asamura.

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Kakeru Yamanobe is not Sosuke Genda

A shakaijin third round draft pick from last fall, it was possible Yamanobe could have won himself a job at 2B with the void Asamura created. As it showed in preseason and practice, his bat wasn't adequate enough despite his speed and defensive abilities. He was an insurance draft pick while still having some upside, but won't make instant impact the way Genda did in his first season.

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Bullpen and rotation still have a share of uncertainty

This is where things get dicey. Rotation spots haven't been stable outside of Tatsuya Imai with others spending time in ni-gun or being injured. The Lions have rode back end starters or spot starters on a six game week, which isn't bad, but there is no clear cut great pitcher in the rotation. Zach Neal, Keisuke Honda, Yasuo Sano and Chun-Lin Kuo have all seen time as a starter with Tawata and Enokida being out. The good news is Wataru Matsumoto has found ichi-gun playing time after a slow April to begin his career.

With the rotation usually coming short of six innings among the back end starters, the bullpen is overworked with Katsunori Hirai pitching way too often. Deunte Heath had a rough interleague stretch while Martin has already looked good. Tatsushi Masuda had some hiccups, but he doesn't appear to be a liability yet. For now, Kazuyoshi Ono has his back end guys, but will they stay there?

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Tetsuya Utsumi has been a dud pickup for compensation

Utsumi has his following from his days with the Yomiuri Giants, but he hasn't played a single ichi-gun game since joining the Lions. He has only appeared in two ni-gun games and the Lions have only cashed in on marketing with Utsumi having his own player bento box. When the Lions took him as compensation for the loss of Ginjiro Sumitani, they were hoping to get a starter who can eat at least 100 innings. At this point, will he even reach 50 innings and be healthy for the second half?

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Overall:

In perspective, the Lions aren't dead at three game above .500, but they're not great or anywhere close to the level of what the Softbank Hawks are. They're going to need pitchers to grow quickly while the hitting can maintain their decent pace with the abilities to hit and be on base. Speed is still killing the opposition, which is something the Lions lead the league in with stolen bases.

Things could be worse, but expectations for a few have felt disappointing.

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Sunday, June 2, 2019

2019 Seibu Lions Series Digest: Togawa hits first HR, Matsumoto rocked in first loss


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The final series before NPB' interleague play resulted in the Saitama Seibu Lions losing two out of three to the Chiba Lotte Marines. They currently sit outside of A-class behind the Fighters and are only one game above .500.  Here's how the series went down:
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The first game in Chiba had Kona Takahashi and Kota Futaki going at it. A fielding error from Daisuke Togawa let two runs go in the Marines favor for a 2-0 lead in the first. Takeya "Okawari-kun" Nakamura had a timely in the second to respond, but a game-tying HR from Togawa in the fifth evened everything up.

Even after that HR, the Lions were able to string together some hits and Shuta Tonosaki hit a timely up the middle for a 3-2 lead. Takahashi had to battle, but forced a double play with runners on the corners in the bottom of the frame. He was able to go 6.2 innings before Katsunori Hirai came in and forced a ground ball with an inherited bases-loaded situation.

Both Hirai and Tatsushi Masuda had no trouble in the 8th and 9th as Takahashi won his third straight game.

Lions 3, Marines 2

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The second game featured Daiki Enokida against Mike Bolsinger. It was a rough beginning for Bolsinger as Takumi Kuriyama's timely hit made it 3-0 in the first, but both sides were trading runs throughout the day. Daichi Suzuki hit a two-run HR, Tonosaki had a solo HR and the Marines eventually had a 6-5 lead in the 5th inning where Enokida couldn't last.

The Lions were able to get runners on base in the 7th and a timely hit from Okawari-kun made it 7-6, but Ryosuke Moriwaki couldn't hang on to the lead in the bottom of the frame and it was tied up again. Both sides had chances in the late frames including Fumikazu Kimura up in the top of the 10th with a runner on second, but this game went Chiba's way as an overworked Hirai struggled and gave up the game-losing run on a sayonara hit to Suzuki.

Marines 8, Lions 7 (10 innings)

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The final matchup of the weekend had Ayumu Ishikawa and Wataru Matsumoto. This game was over from the start as Matsumoto was rocked for three home runs, including a grand slam by Naoya Emura which made it 8-0 after five innings. Ishikawa cruised through seven frames with the lone run coming from a HR off Hotaka Yamkawa.

As a result, the Lions lost the final series before going into Interleague Play.

Marines 8, Lions 1

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Not the most ideal series, but it's also not the end of the world. The starting pitching is still too flawed to be a contender, but the hitting keeps them afloat. If anything, Kona Takahashi's outing through a tough battle is encouraging as he's been on a role. 

This change of pace could make or break the Lions if they have extreme winning or losing in the next 18 games.

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