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Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP)

Sunday, October 25, 2020

2020 Seibu Lions Weekly Digest: Takahashi retires, Lions move up

 


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The Saitama Seibu Lions went 4-2 against the Chiba Lotte Marines and Softbank Hawks. They moved up to third place in the Pacific League and have an outside shot at a postseason berth as they trail the former by three games. 

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Tomomi Takahashi announces retirement

Former All-Star closer Tomomi Takahashi announced he will retire from baseball at the end of the season. He hadn't played an ichi-gun game since 2018, once recovering from Tommy John surgery. Takahashi looked like one of the biggest steals of the 2012 NPB Draft with a strong 2014 season, but things went south when the second half of 2015 came along as he struggled. 

He was last under an ikusei contract at the beginning of 2019 and failed to earn a promotion. His older sister, who is a media member in Fukuoka released a very thankful statement to Lions fans on her brother's retirement. 



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Chiba Lotte Marines: 

Kakeru Yamanobe was responsible for two sayonara wins with the first being an error on Leonys Martin and the second a timely hit. Both of them had a 2-1 score thanks to great pitching from Kona Takahashi and Shota Hamaya, who didn't earn wins. 

In Game 3, the Lions were able to get to Kazuya Ojima with home runs from Cory Spangenberg and Shuta Tonosaki to put it away early for a sweep. It was the first time the Lions were alone in A-class and above .500 since August. 

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Softbank Hawks:

Tatsuya Imai had one run allowed through five innings, but struggled in the 6th with his pitch count high and seeing the order for a third time. Tetsu Miyagawa couldn't clean up the mess while the Lions offense only scored off a double play in Game 1. 

Ken Togame and the Lions bullpen spaced out the innings in Game 2 where it looked like Nao Higashihama would dominate the team in a 1-0 loss. Taisei Makihara had a solo HR, but the Lions pitchers stranded runners for the rest of the game including jams from Togame and Reed Garrett. 

The top of the 8th was the primary chance for the Lions bats and with a struggling Takeya "Okawari-kun" Nakamura up, Livan Moinelo loaded the bases thanks to some walks. Sho Iwasaki came in and he gave up a grand slam, the 21st in Okawari-kun's career which is already an NPB record. With the bullpen shutting down the Hawks, it prevented any chance of a Pacific League pennant clinch party for the weekend. 

This magic disappeared in Game 3 when Wataru Matsumoto gave up six runs in two innings, including a two-run gapper from Yurisbel Gracial. Offensively, the Lions couldn't solve Kotaro Otake either, who went five innings with only three singles allowed. Ukyo Shuto's speed was also something that gave the Lions plenty of trouble. 

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In perspective, this was a productive week for the Lions despite losing in Fukuoka. After trailing by as many as 10 games, the Lions are only three behind and sit at .500. Chiba has reeled a bit too, losing six of their last seven. There are no head-to-head games until the last regular season scheduled outing, but the Lions have their work cut out for them with Rakuten and Softbank coming to MetLife Dome this week.  There's no cupcakes and the Lions need to prove they want to be part of the Climax Series. 

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Friday, October 23, 2020

2020 NPB Draft Preview: Where do the Lions go from here?


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The 2020 NPB Draft takes place on Monday, October 26. This year, it will happen during the regular season, as opposed to the traditional break right before the Japan Series. 

Every year is different, but this year, the information becomes even more slim with limited tournaments, games and no Koshien for the Spring and Summer available in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. It's possible that less high school prospects have submitted paperwork for this draft and opted to go to a shakaijin league or university if they want to continue their baseball careers. 

Here is a look at each position and where the Lions stand in the long run: 

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Catcher: 

This position appears to be set for a few years with Tomoya Mori, Masatoshi Okada and the recently drafted Sena Tsuge at the ichi-gun. They also have Shoya Makino and Masato Saito downstairs while they can choose to promote Daichi Nakaguma from ikusei. This position shouldn't be an issue now that Tsuge, a shakaijin, helped bring early impact and should remain a keeper as a reserve. There are currently no catchers listed on the Lions scouting sheet. 

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Infield:

The Lions had Takeya Nakamura playing 3B on occasion, but Cory Spangenberg has been the band aid fix with foreign help. There was thoughts that Ryusei Sato would be the long term replacement, but he recently got into trouble with the law and remains suspended indefinitely. Kakeru Yamanobe is at 2B with Shuta Tonosaki while Sosuke Genda and Hotaka Yamakawa should remain on the infield. 

There are also multiple high school projects from Ryusei Tsunashima and Ryota Kawano who are there for the long run. It wouldn't hurt to add an infielder for depth.  

Early options could be Shugo Maki (Chuo University) as a fall back first round choice. Long term high school choices include Tomoya Inoue (Hansaki Tokuharu), Kendai Gen (Chukyo) and Yuki Watarai (Yokohama). Teruaki Sato (Kindai Univrsity) can also play 3B, but more on him in the next section. 

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Outfield: 

This is where things get interesting. The Lions had plenty of high school projects who have been unable to make the ichi-gun as regulars. Currently, they've used Fumikazu Kimura, Yuji Kaneko, Cory Spangenberg and Tonosaki. Everyone else has been a flash in the pan, but no mainstays resulting in possible expendable cuts or glorified bench players. Takumi Kuriyama can't be here forever. 

The aforementioned Teruaki Sato out of university is considered to be the best position player in the draft. If he could make instant impact, it wouldn't hurt to have his bat, barring it lives up to the hype. His bat has drawn comparisons to Yuki Yanagita and can hit opposite field. Having him as a part-time 3B would also be a great fit for the Lions if they won his rights. 

Other first round university options include Ryota Isobata (Chuo) and Ryosuke Nishikawa (Tokaidai Sagami). Ryoto Kita (Akashi Shiritsu) is a high school option who is a fast runner and possible leadoff hitter candidate. The already mentioned Tomoya Inoue can also play outfield. 

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Pitcher: 

The Lions pitching can always be better. Currently, they're looking for starters, but having someone in relief doesn't hurt either. LHP Takahisa Hayakawa (Waseda University) is the main prize among pitchers in this class. On paper, he could be inserted into the Lions rotation. Another top alternative is Hiroto Takahashi (Chukyo University).

Other short term options include Naofumi Kizawa (Keio University), Hiroki Ito (Tomakomai Komazawa University) and shakaijin Ryoji Kuribayashi (Toyota Motors). Shunpeita Yamashita (Fukuoka Ohori) is one of the top high school options.  

When it comes to fallback choices, the options are endless with plenty of university and high school pitchers that the Lions have looked at. 

High school choices: 

Shunsuke Nakamori (Akashi Shiritsu)

Tatsuto Kobayashi (Chiben Wakayama)

Takuto Takada (Shizuoka Kenritsu)

Ryonosuke Matsumoto (Yokohama) 

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University options: 

Shota Suzuki (Hosei)

Taisei Irie (Meiji) 

Hiroto Mori (Nittadai) 

Haruki Ohmichi (Hachinohe Gakuin)

Ryota Heinai (Asia) 

Kento Ogo (Tokai) 

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The list is much larger and there is no time to include them all, but majority of the Lions scouting page has indicated they're looking at pitchers. Expect at least four or five taken in this draft. Even an independent league pitcher from the Hyogo Blue Thunders is listed. 

Of course the big subplot is Junichi Tazawa being eligible for this draft after his initial ineligible ruling took place when he left for North America as a shakaijin pitcher. Someone should take him in this draft if they want a reliever who can help immediately. 

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Outlook:

The Lions have shown that they'll announce their draft pick publicly if it's an obvious player like Hayakawa or Sato. However, if they conceal their pick until draft day, it indicates they want somebody and hope he goes unopposed or few teams go for him. 

An announcement could be made any moment if they announce their pick. Previous first round pick attempts and announcements since we've been following the Lions are shown as followed: 

2015: Shinsaburo Tawata: Announced

2016: Tatsuya Imai: Hidden

2017: Daiki Tajima: Announced, lost, drafted Hiromasa Saito

2018: Wataru Matsumoto: Hidden, but most media members speculated this was happening. 

2019: Roki Sasaki: Announced, lost, drafted Tetsu Miyagawa 

Most mocks have the Lions going Hayakawa or Sato, but if there is no team announcement, expect something else. 

When polling Lions twitter, early results showed a near split on Sato and Hayakawa. However, our latest poll was leaning towards Hayakawa as shown below. 


One last second poll may be conducted unless the team makes an announcement soon. As earlier mentioned, expected a load of pitchers to be taken by the Lions based on needs, but it's possible they attempt to take Teruaki Sato given his talent evaluation and the need for short term help in the outfield. 

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Sunday, October 18, 2020

2020 Seibu Lions Weekly Digest: Another stalemate

 


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The Saitama Seibu Lions went 3-3 against the Fighters and Buffaloes for the week. They retained their fourth place standing in the Pacific League with only 1/2 game behind the Rakuten Eagles for third. 

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Game 1: Kona Takahashi vs. Naoyuki Uwasawa

Kona Takahashi pitched eight shutout innings and a mixture of timely hits made this game a laugher. The Lions scattered nine hits off Uwasawa through six innings, which was good for five runs. Timely hits came from everyone including Sosuke Genda, Ernesto Mejia and Tomoya Mori. Shuta Tonosaki also reached a new milestone for his 100th career stolen base in this 7-0 win. 

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Game 2: Shota Hamaya vs. Drew VerHagen

The Lions walked eight batters and Taishi Ota hit a two-run HR off Hamaya to set the tone of this game. Drew VerHagen threw eight shutout innings and the Lions didn't score until the 9th off a reliever. Seiji Kawagoe had RBIs late while Ichiro Tamura struck out a few as a consolation in this 7-2 defeat. 

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Game 3: Zach Neal vs. Nick Martinez

The Lions couldn't solve Kensuke Kondo early on and Neal gave up five runs through two innings. Tomoya Mori hit a three-run HR, but the Fighters pulled away as the Lions lose 8-3. 

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Game 4: Tatsuya Imai vs. Taisuke Yamaoka

Imai lasted 5.1 innings with his best outing in months. After leaving two runners on base, Steven Moya had a timely hit to break the deadlock in the 6th. The bottom of the 6th is where the magic came as Takumi Kuriyama had a gapper with two runners on, giving the Lions the 2-1 lead they wouldn't give up. Their bullpen did the usual 7-8-9 work with Ryosuke Moriwaki, Kaima Taira and Tatsushi Masuda though there was drama in the 9th. Masuda loaded the bases, but got a ground ball to end it, snapping a 2 game skid. 

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Game 5: Ken Togame vs. Yaku Cho

Yaku Cho had six scoreless innings against the Lions with eight strikeouts, on what was a fitting Taiwan day at MetLife Dome. Seiichiro Oshita and Steven Moya each had a home run as the Lions bats were near silent. Nien Ting Wu recorded a consolation RBI in the 7th, but it wasn't enough.  

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Game 6: Wataru Matsumoto vs. Hiroya Miyagi

In a battle of first round picks and the opposition being a rookie, the Lions scored just enough offense in a tough battle. A three-run inning for the Lions including timely hits from Yuji Kaneko and Sosuke Genda were key to this win. Matsumoto went six innings with only one run allowed while there was drama in the 9th. Tatsushi Masuda gave up one run and had the tying run on third base, but two outs were recorded to preserve the win and a split for the week. 

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Even with the game results being in the middle, having Takahashi, Imai and Matsumoto with solid starts is progress for the long run. Fans should enjoy the growth of the youth while Takumi Kuriyama sets himself up for 2,000 career hits in 2021. 

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Monday, October 12, 2020

2020 Seibu Lions Weekly Digest: Rain cuts series short

 


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The Saitama Seibu Lions had a 3-1-1 week against the Softbank Hawks and Rakuten Eagles. They sit in fourth place and were nearly in third, but some games were called off due to rain. 

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Game 1: Kona Takahashi vs. Kodai Senga

Tomoya Mori had all three RBIs for the Lions with a bases-loaded sacrifice fly and a timely double. Kona Takahashi went 6.1 innings without allowing a run and walking one batter while striking out eight. Kaima Taira came in for the 7th with inherited runners and got a key double play to keep the Hawks off the board. Tatsushi Masuda denied the shutout, but the Lions broke a small skid to start the week with a win. 

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Game 2: Shota Hamaya vs. Shunsuke Kasaya

Hamaya allowed three runs including a HR to Yuki Yanagita and that looked like it could be over. However, the Lions chipped away at the lead slowly with timely hits by Takumi Kuriyama and a solo HR when the game was eventually tied in the 7th. For the bottom of the 8th, Fumikazu Kimura had a gapper with a runner in scoring position to give the team their first lead of the night. 

The bullpen was also key as Reed Garrett, Kaima Taira and Katsunori Hirai continued to strand runners. As a result of this win, the Lions took the series. 

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Game 3: Tatsuya Imai vs. Shunta Ishikawa

Imai gave up four runs on eight hits in a span of only three innings, however, the Lions bullpen held their ground. Ishikawa gave up a three-run HR to Hotaka Yamakawa which tied the game at 4-4 in the bottom of the 7th. There was a chance for a win in the bottom of the 9th when the Lions had a leadoff double off Yuito Mori. They failed to cash in and had to settle for a draw. 

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Game 4: Zach Neal vs. Takahiro Shiomi

Neal escaped an early jam only giving up one run in the bottom of the 1st and the Lions were able to score from there on out. Yuji Kaneko cleared the bases with a timely base hit and some strong base running brought a third runner home. Neal went six innings and allowed only two runs. Cory Spangenberg and Hotaka Yamakawa added runs through a sacrifice fly and timely hit in the top of the 8th for insurance as the Lions won their third game of the week. 

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Game 5: Ryota Ishibashi vs Daiki Enokida

Both teams played for three innings after a rain delay, but the game was called after another storm hit Sendai. 

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Game 5: Wataru Matsumoto vs. Ryota Takinaka

Takinaka nearly shutout the Lions until the 9th inning as the Eagles cruised to an easy 8-2 win. Matsumoto coughed up five runs in four innings with a makeup game being forced the following day. 

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Game 6: Katsunori Hirai vs. Yuya Fukui

This game was called due to the rain in Sendai nearly four hours before scheduled first pitch. 

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It was a good week overall with no loss to Softbank. Unfortunately the Lions still showed they can't hit, but the pitching has remained promising. 

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Sunday, October 4, 2020

2020 Seibu Lions Series Digest: Fate not in their own hands

 


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The Saitama Seibu Lions lost the series against the Chiba Lotte Marines over the weekend. They currently sit in 4th place of the Pacific League. 

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Game 1: Zach Neal vs. Kota Futaki

Neal went seven innings without allowing a run. Both sides were pitching well and got double plays when necessary to escape the jams. It wasn't until the 10th inning when Ernesto Mejia broke the deadlock with a solo HR to left field. The 1-0 lead was enough for the Lions to win this as Ryosuke Moriwaki got a double play in the bottom of the frame for his first career save. 

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Game 2: Reed Garrett vs. Toshiya Nakamura

Garrett was a short starter and this bullpen game for the Lions started out well with HRs by Fumikazu Kimura and Takumi Kuriyama. however, things went south when Tetsu Miyagawa came in for the 6th inning and gave up a three-run HR to Shuhei Fukuda. With the Marines getting another chance in the 7th of Ryosuke Moriwaki, Hisanori Yasuda went yard for a game-losing three-run HR. 

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Game 3: Wataru Matsumoto vs. Minabu Mima

Mima had a near perfect game with only a solo leadoff HR given up to Yuji Kaneko in the first. The Lions next 20 batters were retired in an easy win for Chiba. Matsumoto gave up four runs in five innings, including a HR to Fukuda in the 5th. This marked the Lions first losing week since mid-August. 

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This season is still a mess. Offense isn't there, pitching has been mediocre, but the bullpen is still a strength though Saturday was a stinker. Hatsuhiko Tsuji was asked about how the postseason is no longer in the Lions hands as they need help to win, but he said to the media how they're not thinking about it. 

Nobody should be thinking about postseason with this squad. This isn't giving up, but not paying attention to the standings. It's about progress and growth of the current progress more than wins and losses in the standings. 

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Thursday, October 1, 2020

2020 Seibu Lions Weekly Digest: Franchise reaches 3,000 wins in Seibu era

 


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The Saitama Seibu Lions went 5-4 in their last nine games against the Fighters, Eagles and Buffaloes. 

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Game 1: Kona Takahashi vs. Naoyuki Uwasawa

The Lions bats had no answer for Uwasawa, who drew two double plays and went seven innings with only one run allowed. Sho Nakata and Yushi Shimizu both hit home runs off Takahashi, which was all the offense the Fighters needed. Takumi Kuriyama had two hits to boost his totals including a timely in the 6th, but it was too late. Yuji Kaneko recorded his 200th career stolen base as a consolation. 

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Game 2: Shota Hamaya vs. Drew VerHagen

Hamaya allowed three runs in the second inning from a timely hit by Shimizu and a sacrifice fly from Go Matsumoto to start. The offense responded in the 4th when Fumikazu Kimura, returning from an injury, hit a three-run HR to tie it. Rookie Sena Tsuge also had a timely hit to make it 4-3. Two more timely hits from Takumi Kuriyama and Kimura gave the team enough runs to hang on. Sho Nakata hit a HR and Hamaya went 5.1 innings, but the bullpen stopped the team in its tracks with the tying run on base in the 6th and 9th innings. Ryosuke Moriwaki and Tatsushi Masuda got key strikeouts with two outs. 

With the Lions winning, it was their 3,000th win in franchise history since 1979, the first season since moving to Tokorozawa and being in the Seibu era. 

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Game 3: Sho Ito vs. Kenta Uehara

Ito could't escape the Fighters bats and was lit up for four runs over 3.1 innings. The Lions allowed at least one run for seven consecutive innings, including a HR from Haruki Nishikawa. With the mop up duty team destroyed by the Fighters bats, Takeya "Okawari-kun" Nakamura hit a consolation HR which was his 200th at MetLife Dome.  

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Game 4: Zach Neal vs. Takahiro Shiomi

Ernesto Mejia had three RBIs with two timely hits as well as a smart slide on a double to score a run. Cory Spangenberg was the hero in the top of the 7th inning with the go-ahead run when the game was tied 4-4.  Neal, gave up four runs and couldn't record an out in the sixth, but the game remained tied when Tetsu Miyagawa was able to cover up any further damage. This game snapped an EAgles five game losing streak. 

Mejia also announced his uncle passed away that day during his hero interview, having a "CM" written on his cap.  

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Game 5: Sean Nolin vs. Ryota Ishibashi 

Nolin left after one inning due to shoulder tightness, forcing the bullpen to take majority of the game in relief. When the game was tied 1-1 in the 5th, Fumikazu Kimura was in CF and threw out a runner trying to score. It proved to be vital as the Lions bullpen stranded runners nearly each inning. Sosuke Genda broke the tie with a two-run triple in the bottom of the 7th and earned a modasho for his efforts. it was his first hero interview of the 2020 for the new Lions captain. 

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Game 6: Wataru Matsumoto vs. Ryota Takinaka

Matsumoto went seven innings and Mejia had two key doubles to bring in three runs. It resulted in a sweep of the Eagles as Matsumoto had another promising performance. 

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Orix Buffaloes

For those who have been following on Twitter, I took a recent vacation. From hearing the blunders of two shutouts and Takumi Kuriyama reaching 1,900 career hits, this series was a mess on offense with the pitching being subpar. 

At least it ended on a good note, when the Lions came back from trailing late as Hotaka Yamakawa hit a two-run game winning HR. By pitching a scoreless 7th inning, Tetsu Miyagawa earned his first career win. 

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This season has already been over and the series in Osaka already forced the issue that this team isn't good enough. Can only enjoy the good things in these dark times of no offense. 

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