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Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP)

Sunday, February 25, 2024

Imanaga won't need to be a star with Cubs

 

Shota Imanaga signed with the Chicago Cubs in January as one of many players coming over from NPB to MLB. 

Despite having a high fanfare of projections in the heights of $100 million, he only received a contract with $53 million guaranteed. 

Due to the excellent timing, the Cubs were able to introduce him to the public at Cubs Convention, a weekend event for fans and the team to connect. 

"I am very happy to be here and a Cub. I want to thank the Cubs organization and I'm excited to pitch at Wrigley Field," Imanaga said through interpreter Shingo Murata. "I'm looking forward to being with coaches and teammates. Go Cubs go!"

Known as a "Throwing Philosopher," Imanaga said he earned this nickname through his studious habits beyond the physical practice in his pitching. 

Imanaga said Seiya Suzuki did not influence his decision to pick the Cubs when he entered the posting window. It was the Cubs themselves who approached and wanted him the most. 

"One of the things that resonated with me is [when the Cubs said they] believe in my potential and do what I do best," Imanaga said. "At the same time, I realize there's a lot of room for me to grow and I look forward to talking with my coaches and teammates to reach that potential when I can. "

Jed Hoyer, Cubs President of Baseball Operations, said it was an "extensive" process in scouting Imanaga. Both he and General Manager Carter Hawkins did plenty of homework when watching film and reading information. Hoyer even attended a game in September to watch him pitch.

"We're very excited to bring Shota on board," Hoyer said. "He's been a great teammate. He is very curious and he has his reputation of being a cerebral pitcher. He's very curious, as he wants to continue to get better and that sounds like a perfect match for the Cubs."

Hoyer added it was a bonus how Imanaga has already embraces the city of Chicago and talked about the great history of Wrigley Field. 

Imanaga's four-year $53 million contract is rather soft. The Cubs can pickup a fifth year option for 2028 after the 2025 or 2026 seasons and if they refuse, Imanaga can opt out as early as 2025. 

If Chicago picks up the team option, he will make a combined $80 million through 2028.  The Yokohama DeNA Baystars also received a $9.8 million posting fee. 

Imanaga said pitching in the 2023 WBC was an inspiration on how much he can improve his pitching and be even better than he already was in Japan with the Baystars. 

He started the final game against USA taking the first two innings before it was a team bullpen relay for Shohei Ohtani to close it out. 

His biggest transition to MLB will be pitching every fifth game as opposed to once a week in Japan. Imanaga said he would keep an open mind for advice to the changes ahead from a technical standpoint to the larger baseball he's holding. Other things in transition include a pitch clock besides hitters who are more power oriented.

While wearing No. 18 is a common tradition in Japan for pitchers as the team ace, Imanaga said in his press conference he wanted to be like Ben Zobrist, who was an important player during their 2016 World Series championship team. 

For the Cubs, they're coming off a season where they competed a year ahead of schedule. A September collapse by their bullpen and rotation prevented the postseason, but a finish at 83-79 is still higher than where most baseball experts had them going into 2023. 

Imanaga projects to be a No. 4 or No. 5 starter behind Justin Steele, James Taillon and Kyle Hendricks. On the back side, Imanaga will be with Javier Assad and Jordan Wicks. They lost Marcus Stroman in free agency to the New York Yankees. 

The Cubs will need to shore up their bullpen and it could be a struggle coming into 2024 with several uncertain names. However, the back of their rotation will also need to develop from within. 

Overall, it has been a slow offseason with Imanaga being their big signing, though they retained Cody Bellinger, who was coming off a comeback season in 2023. 

Seiya Suzuki also finished the 2023 season strong after injuries and adjustments hurt him in 2022.  There was a gaffe in September, which helped the Arizona Diamondbacks take the final postseason spot, but the Cubs have shown they're in it to compete. 

Aside from Imanaga, their biggest pickup was new Manager Craig Counsell, who they plucked away from the Milwaukee Brewers and within the division. David Ross, his predecessor, likely took the Cubs as far as he could. 

The division is easily up for the grabs when the St. Louis Cardinals came off a down season and the others haven't proven they can hang around for 162 games, but Imanaga's role could get them over that hump into the postseason.

He doesn't need to be an ace, but a pitcher to eat innings. As long as he keeps his rotation job and even goes deeper into games the Cubs will take that, especially how he's being paid like a No. 5 starter. 

There is plenty of reason for optimism for both the Cubs and their willingness to go into Japan for players. Hoyer spoke about the last seasons of having Suzuki help them in approaching Imanaga.  

"I think the whole organization has learned a lot from having Seiya from these two years and what things we can do better," Hoyer said. "I think Shota really benefits from us having two years of that experience. Our hope has always been that we want to be a destination for Japanese players. We go above and beyond to make sure that transition goes smoothly."

Previously, the Cubs signed Yu Darvish after the 2017 World Series. Other names include some being infamous for the wrong reasons like Kosuke Fukudome as well as Kyuji Fujikawa and the twilight of Koji Uehara. 

"We probably made some mistakes along the way and improved some things with Seiya, but our hope is that it becomes Seiya and Shota and many more. There are a lot of great players in the NPB and we hope the city of Chicago and Wrigley field and the Cubs will be a destination."

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Sunday, February 4, 2024

Yamamoto will need to handle spotlight

 


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Yoshinobu Yamamoto joins the Los Angeles Dodgers with sky high expectations. Not only from his success in Japan, but by having the highest guaranteed contract in AAV and years for a pitcher. 

His goal was very obvious in wanting to win games. Yamamoto was overwhelmed by the teams who gave him an offer and wanted his services, but he had a simple priority.

"It was very important for me for a team that wants to win and not only now but in the future as well," Yamamoto said through his interpreter Mako Allbee. "I really felt that through this whole process, The Dodgers provided that opportunity the most. "

Several teams including the New York Yankees and New York Mets had interest, but he Dodgers matched the fiscal offer by the latter and their prestige won him over.

Yamamoto downplayed Ohtani's presence when signing, saying he would've picked them regardless for their winning abilities. 

"Through my talks with the front office, it was really clear that they wanted to win," Yamamoto said. But on top of that, the fact that Shohei was doing that (by taking less money up front) also signaled that it wasn't just the front office, but it was the players that bought into this winning atmosphere as well, so that really resonated with me.

I really felt the front office people were committed in the same direction."

Despite earning a large contract, the work has just begun to live up to it. The Dodgers are a team who had a great offense and fizzled out of the postseason last October because their pitching depth was depleted. 

Walker Buehler is coming off his second Tommy John surgery and missed the entire 2023 season. 

Julio Urias remains a free agent and will likely be unsigned by the team after the legal trouble he's gone through.

They did add James Paxton and Tyler Glasnow by signing and trade, respectively, but their expectations don't come close to Yamamoto. 

Longtime pitcher Clayton Kershaw is coming off an injury and won't return until July at the earliest. Shohei Ohtani will obviously not pitch in 2024 coming off a hybrid procedure to his elbow instead of Tommy John surgery.

Dodgers General Manager Brandon Gomes spoke about Yamamoto being special both on and off the field with his work ethic. 

"There's a different level of intent and focus with each and every throw he makes leading up to that night's game," Gomes said. "Once on the mound, he features multiple weapons to navigate a lineup effectively. In addition to that, it is a truly special command that not only allows him to go deep into games, but when needed, he can feature swing-and-miss stuff that is elite."

Gomes described Yamamoto as "meticulous" for his routines in workout, recovery and diet to stay active.

In knowing something about MLB, Yamamoto got a taste of it in 2019 when attending a Dodgers playoff game as well as one in Oakland on a California trip. By coincidence, Kenta Maeda was pitching for the Dodgers.

Yamamoto's 12-year, $325 million contract through 2035 has no deferred payments compared to Ohtani. There are two opt-out options in his contract and they can kick in earlier or later depending on if he has Tommy John surgery or misses a significant amount of time with an elbow injury

If Yamamoto has Tommy John surgery or misses 134 consecutive service days from 2024-2029 due to an elbow issue, he can opt out after the 2031 and 2033 seasons. 

In the event Yamamoto is healthy through his first six years, he can opt out after the 2029 and 2031 seasons.

For the injury scenario, the Dodgers could gain a $10 million conditional option for 2036. 

Yamamoto will be asked to carry the Dodgers rotation with little to no grace period. He is only making $5 million in 2024, yet the expectations will always remain high. 

'There is that sense of relief of saying 'I'm finally here when I finally made it,' but obviously this is where it all starts and I still got to put in the work from here on out to continue to strive to get better," Yamamoto said. 

In reality, Yamamoto has barely been on a huge radar compared to others in NPB. While it's true he's won the Sawamura Award three times and had several accolades as an ace for the Orix Buffaloes, the pressure has been minimal.

Despite their recent on-field success, Orix is one of the least popular teams in Japan and plays second fiddle to the Hanshin Tigers in the Kansai market. 

Most of the media and fans of this area will be loud and critical of the Tigers like they're an East Coast team in an intense manner. 

The Orix Buffaloes on the other hand don't have attendance even close to Hanshin in percentage. At Kyocera Dome, it's very easy to walk up and buy a ticket on Gameday with an electronic kiosk available. 

In perspective, Yamamoto's humble beginnings started in the draft, where he was a fourth-round selection out of high school. 

"Looking back at my high school self, you'd probably be very surprised at where I am now," Yamamoto said. "But I really feel like I have been doing the same thing since I entered NPB at 18 years old. But I think I was also blessed and very lucky to be surrounded by the right people to support me to where I am now."

His career up to this point has led to an ability to rise up and. be anonymous in Japan aside from the baseball fanatics due to playing for Orix. 

Yamamoto gave up multiple runs in his only stateside appearance during the WBC win against Mexico while in Miami. He couldn't get the shutdown inning, yet he was bailed out by Japan's offense in the 9th inning, capped off by a sayonara hit by Munetaka Murakami. 

These first few months will be uncharted waters, which he downplayed how anyone coming to MLB from Japan will need to adjust to the culture changes and the schedule of pitching every five days as opposed to once a week. 

Southern California's media market doesn't have the same intensity as New York or Boston, but there's still plenty of people who will be loud if there is struggling. 

The rotation spotlight will be on Yamamoto as he comes to Chavez Ravine. How does he handle this pressure from humble beginnings? Time will tell.

"From today moving forward, I promise to all the fans of LA that I will focus my everything to become a better player and to become a world champion," Yamamoto said. "As a member of the Dodgers, I'll stop simply admiring the players I looked up to, but rather strive to become the player that others want to become." 

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