The True Ace Analysis: Takayuki Kishi

It's been a long time since the 2008 Japan Series, where a then-23 year old, Takayuki Kishi announced to the world who he was by dominating the Yomiuri Giants bringing a title to Saitama. We didn't know it at that time, but that was a just a sign of things to come from Kishi who is the clear ace of the Seibu Lions pitching staff. With all the aces in the Pacific League being young kids, he is definitely the best veteran starter in the Pacific League and perhaps all of NPB.

We'll be doing a few things in this post, we'll first take a look at Kishi's pitching arsenal with a few GIFs I've created after watching plenty of film on the 30 year old ace. And then we'll be looking at his numbers through FIP, and from there we can predict how Kishi will do this season, going forward.

Fastball:

His fastball usually sits in the high 80s and tops out at 93. According to NPB Tracker circa 2012 (last known data compiled on pitch usage), Kishi threw his fastball 52.7% of the time which is atypical of many Japanese pitchers. Don't let this usage fool you, Kishi's fastball is a tremendous weapon for a variety of reasons.

First off, he has impeccable control of his fastball and one thing that is always fun is to watch how much Sumitani's catchers glove moves when Kishi throws his fastball. He's always a sure bet to paint the corners and even be granted a generous strike call because of how accurate he is. An example of this was seen in last year's All-Star Series when facing the Hiroshima Carp's Brad Eldred (who was the home run king of NPB in 2014) and Kila Ka'aihue from different sides of the plate.

When Kishi is at his best, he's able to freeze hitters by spotting a fastball right at the knees or sneaking it in on the inside corner to ring up the batter. When his fastball flares up in the zone, the result is often a drive to the outfield. Now that isn't a problem if it stays in the ballpark because of the tremendous outfield range that Norio Tanabe's squad contains. With that being said, Kishi has often had problems with the longball during his career. In 2009 he led all of NPB with home runs given up, though this isn't as much of a problem now, it's still something to keep an eye on. Here's the perfect example of Kishi freezing a hitter for a backwards K during his no-hitter last season against the Marines.

Even though Kishi appears to be a painter, don't underestimate him when it comes to just rearing back and letting it fly. Once in awhile, he'll reach and back for all he's got and challenge a hitter. Even though he tops out at 93, it looks a lot faster due to deception, and with his vast knowledge from experience, he gets the most out of his fastball. Just ask Japan's 2013 Home Run king, Wladimir Balentien about Kishi's ability to challenge.

Changeup:

The fastball/changeup combo is one of baseball oldest recipes for pitchers success and Kishi continues to use it to success. Personally, I love his changeup and he uses it often. In 2012, Kishi used it 17.4% of the time and watching this upcoming GIF, you can certainly see why. The pitch is absolute hell for opposing hitters because Kishi expertly brings the same arm motion as he would with a fastball, and it's usually 8 mph different from his fastball which is perfect to fool hitters. Watch how bad Kishi makes Eldred look with his changeup:

I looked everywhere to try and find video of Kishi's slider but I couldn't confirm if I saw his slider or not. It's identical in velocity to his changeup but it's thrown the least out of all his pitches. Keep an eye out for his slider during his starts. 

Curveball:

In 2012, Kishi threw his curveball over 21% of the time which was his second most used pitch. From watching the tape, it's easy to see why. His curveball comes in at a speed below 70 and has tremendous drop on it, the pitch seems to be at its best when its destination is either in the dirt or below the knees. It either produces swings and misses or a weak groundball that provides Kishi with a solid out pitch in sticky situations. Below are two examples of Kishi curveballs, one is a great curveball from Kishi and another is a bad curveball. Take note of the results of each.

Looking at Kishi's arsenal as a whole, he's a very dynamic pitcher who can get you out in so many ways and he seems to limit contact from his opponents at times. He doesn't have to strikeout 12 a night to be successful, he's very happy to let his defense deal with simple, weak contact that he has created.

Now onto Kishi's Statistical Analysis:

The following are the complete FIP vs ERA comparisons from Kishi's career to this point

2007 (156.1 IP with 24 starts):

FIP: 3.45 ERA: 3.40

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2008 (168.1 IP with 26 starts):

FIP: 2.97, ERA: 3.42

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2009 (179.2 IP with 25 starts):

FIP: 3.95, ERA: 3.26

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2010 (113.2 IP with 16 starts):

FIP: 2.64, ERA: 3.25

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2011 (135.0 IP with 21 starts):

FIP: 3.24, ERA: 3.80

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2012 (187.2 IP with 26 starts):

FIP: 2.47, ERA: 2.45

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2013 (178.1 IP with 26 starts):

FIP: 3.02, ERA: 3.08

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2014 (161.1 IP with 22 starts):

FIP: 3.18, ERA: 2.51

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Kishi's average FIP: 3.11

I was really looking forward to my findings in Kishi's FIP numbers and much to my delight, FIP actually makes Kishi seem like an even better pitcher than his ERA does. According to FIP in 2009 (at the age of 24) which also happened to be one of only two seasons where his WHIP was over 1.2 with the other being the 2011 season, Kishi has been quite consistent in his important statistical areas like BB/9 and K/9 with his BB/9 usually being slightly above 1.5 and his K/9 being a little above 7.0. 

His innings have been the stuff of a workhorse and it'll be interesting to see the amount of pitches Tanabe lets him throw in his outings and if Kishi can continue to show his rubber arm at the age of 30. In fact, last year Kishi reached a career high with complete games by throwing 5 last year. The Lions will need more of that this year and hopefully it can carry them into the playoffs.

What do I expect from Kishi? I expect more of the same, a guy with great control, finds a strikeout when he needs to, inflicts weak contact and goes deep into games. Any FIP near his average would fantastic, if we are to do anything in postseason, Kishi will have to be healthy and pitching at the level that we know he is capable of doing.

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Scapegoat: Moriwaki takes 'leave of absence'; Orix remains a disappointment

Hiroshi Moriwaki and the Buffaloes held a press conference in Tokyo prior to the loss against the Giants.

While we are primarily a blog devoted to writing about the Seibu Lions, there will be occasional talk about other NPB topics beyond them. With the recent headlines regarding one team, here is our first non-Lions commentary and thoughts on the news regarding the Orix Buffaloes. 

The Orix Buffaloes announced on Tuesday afternoon that manager Hiroshi Moriwaki will take a leave of absence after a poor start to the 2015 NPB season.

Moriwaki, 54, took over as an interim coach in 2012 and had a fifth place finish in 2013. The Orix Buffaloes nearly won the Pacific League in 2014 by less than half a game as the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks only captured the title on percentage points.

He couldn't even coach a game in June, as the team was 19-34-1 this year, where his final series was being swept at home by the last place Central League Hiroshima Toyo Carp. Based on "what have you done for me lately", the Buffaloes just couldn't remain competitive and are currently 13.5 games behind the Fighters after last night's loss to the Yomiuri Giants.

The last series against Hiroshima was Orix's season in a nutshell. In their loss on May 29, a passed ball occurred after Francisco Caraballo tied the game with a massive home run. It was the game losing run in the top of the ninth, leading to a one run loss.

In Moriwaki's last game on May 31, Shunta Goto misfielded a hit by Nate Schierholtz, leading to a game-tying hit that scored from first. They would concede a go-ahead home run in the 8th and late miss an opportunity to tie the game when batting.

Orix put themselves in a "win-now" mode, by signing multiple free agents in the offseason coming off a second-place finish in the Pacific League. This includes former Saitama Seibu Lion Hiroyuki Nakajima returning from a two-year stint with the Oakland Athletics minor league system, IF Eiichi Koyano from the Nippon-Ham Fighters, starting pitcher Bryan Bullington from the Carp as well as IF Tony Blanco from the DeNA Baystars.

Majority of prognosticators from fans and media alike had the Buffaloes as a lock for the postseason. They and the Hawks were considered to have an interchangeable No. 1 and No.2 finish in the Pacific League with the Fighters, Lions, Rakuten Golden Eagles and Chiba Lotte Marines fighting it out for third place.

Nothing has gone right for this team, from an inability to get on base to a bullpen that is notorious for blowing leads. It didn't help when the team's ace Chihiro Kaneko was injured to begin the year, but management made a desperate move in May which would be the last straw for Moriwaki.

They chose to start Kaneko without rehab on May 23 and the Marines lit him up which included a grand slam by Ikuhiro Kiyota. He had an average outing on May 30, but they still have lost both games when he has started a game.

Blanco has been injured and not producing while Nakajima has done the same. Koyano and Bullington have also remained mediocre since becoming Buffaloes.

Team president Ryuzo Setoyama was in charge of the free agent signings and they'll let Moriwaki take the fall for these mistakes. Chemistry isn't there and nothing is clicking, but Orix is still talented enough to be a spoiler.

Moriwaki has shown to be a credible manager and while the standings are not good, majority of this season is not his fault. This is a classic situation of using the manager as a scapegoat for other faults.

With Orix in the cellar well-behind everyone else, it created a door for at least one surprise team to make the postseason from the Pacific League. The Fighters were supposed to return from where they left off, as they won a playoff series in 2014. They were the trendy third-place pick with good defense and a solid rotation.

So far, the Lions and Marines are beneficiaries of the Buffaloes' fall. Both teams were expected to be in the bottom, but they're competing this year in their own unique ways.

Chiba has a load of above average hitting and pitching. Not exactly the star power of talent, but enough to stay competitive.

For the Lions, they're pitching respectably given the circumstances without their ace, Takayuki Kishi through two months. Kazuhita Makita, Ryoma Nogami, Ken Togame and even Yusei Kikuchi have done a tremendous job of picking up the slack while the hitting has its ups and downs.

It wasn't long ago when Haruki Ihara stepped down for the Lions. In fact, Moriwaki's announcement came three days prior to the one-year anniversary of when Ihara resigned from his position at manager. Seibu was 20-33 and dead last in the Pacific League at the time of Ihara's resignation.

With Orix in a state of disarray and their front office putting blame on the manager, this disaster could only get worse as the season goes on. As they tried buying their way to wins with the free agent signings, it could be a larger setback in the long term for a talented group of players.

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Lions Weekly Digest: Kataoka strikes; Lions strikeout but recover

Miles Mikolas earned his first win against the Lions

Interleague play kicked off this week, but it wasn't fun initially for the Seibu Lions, who continued the downward spiral to the season. They lost two out of three from the Yomiuri Giants (Kyojin), which included a lack of fire power throughout the week.

Game 1 in Kōriyama was batting practice for the Kyojin, as Ken Togame was roughed up for three home runs and seven total earned runs through five innings. On the offensive side, Tomoya Mori looked silly when striking out to Tomoyuki Sugano, who went the distance with nine strikeouts. This game was summed up by a tape measure home run from Hayato Sakamoto, as he went 4-4 and obliterated the Lions pitchers. 

After Toshihiro Iwao was deactivated for the week, Game 2 saw a different Lions team in the Seibu Dome. Shogo Akiyama continued his strong form with two solo home runs and a crucial third inning made the difference. 

With the bases loaded, Tomoya Mori walked and Anthony Seratelli had two-RBI single for his first RBIs in Japan. Every run counted as Ryoma Nogami allowed a home run by Yoshinobu Takahashi and Tomomi Takahashi allowed one run in the 9th. However, T. Takahashi finished the game by getting the ground out in the ninth. 

Game 3 saw more of a nightmare outing by the Lions bats against Miles Mikolas. Fumiya Nishiguchi was given the spot start in place of Wade LeBlanc and he allowed a solo HR from Leslie Anderson to start. A two-out rally in the 4th inning put away the game in doubt.  

After one run given up to Y. Takahashi, former Lion Yasuyuki Kataoka got a big two-RBI single to put the Kyojin up 4-0. Mikolas struck out 10 batters through eight innings while their closer Hirokazu Sawamura struck out the side. Takeya "Okawari-kun" Nakamura had a solo HR in the ninth, but it was too little too late.

Negative momentum carried into the series with the Hanshin Tigers, who had won three straight against Rakuten heading into Friday. Randy Messenger, who was activated for the first time since his demotion on May 10 made the start. He ended up fanning 11 Lions through seven innings and his bullpen held on. 

Kazuhita Makita went eight innings, but continued to walk and allow runners on base. With runners on second and third with no outs, he allowed an RBI groundout to Matt Murton for the only run of the game. The Lions had a chance in the eighth inning with a leadoff hit from Akiyama, but a failed bunt attempt by Takumi Kuriyama resulted in a 2-6-3 double play. Like Sawamura, the Tigers' closer Seung-Hwan Oh struck out the side to end Game 1.  

The controversial decision to bunt after a leadoff double in the first inning ended up backfiring as Hideto Asamura popped up to shallow center. Then Okawari-kun struck out on a pitch that was well outside. Bunting with Kuriyama has been understandable after he has been double play prone, but a decent hitter with a runner on second should not draw a sacrifice bunt. 

Game 2 saw a resurgence in power hitting as Ernesto Mejia had a solo HR and Okawari-kun had his 30th career multi-HR game. His second HR was a grand slam where a two-out rally loaded the bases. Hustle from Akiyama on an onfield single started it all, followed by a single from Kuriyama and Asamura being hit by a pitch. Okwari-kun had "Okawari" home run with the golf swing, sending the Seibu Dome in a frenzy. 

Caught up in the offensive outing was Yusei Kikuchi, who earned his first win of the season after having multiple quality starts resulting in losses or no decisions. He had 11 strikeouts and Tanabe squeezed a seventh inning out of him despite having 120 pitches coming into it. Kikuchi finished with 153 pitches and escaped a few jams along the way. The Lions won 9-2, scoring more runs on Saturday than their previous four games combined. 

For Game 3, it looked like another long outing for Taiwanese pitcher Chun-Lin "Kaku" Kuo.  He battled with control issues all night, but good defense prevented him from allowing more runs. In the sixth, an error led to three unearned runs and gave the Tigers what looked like a commanding 4-0 lead.

However, Mejia sparked the Lions with an RBI single from Mejia in the bottom of the 6th and they would erupt for five runs in the bottom of the 7th after a shutdown inning from Kazuki Miyata.

Okawari-kun hit the game-winning three-run HR which put them ahead for good. Everybody who had an at-bat got a hit from pinch hitter Ryota Wakiya to Ginjiro Sumitani. The Lions would win their first series since May 14, where they took two out of three from the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters. Miyata would earn his first career win in NPB, after seven seasons of playing baseball in the Lions organization.

The Pacific league race has tightened up with the Chiba Lotte Marines being only two games behind. The Lions are now 3-3 in interleague play and will face a competitive Chunichi Dragons team and a Central league-leading Yokohama DeNA Baystars.  A .500 week of 3-3 should be the minimal goal as every game is on the road.

This week the Lions were close to sweeping Hanshin with the 1-0 loss being a hit away from another result. If the Lions middle of the order can keep hitting like they did from Saturday and Sunday, they should be in good shape.

The best news for Lions fans is that Takayuki Kishi is expected to make his 2015 season debut on Thursday against the Dragons. He has been out for two months with an inflamed abdomen.

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Homemade Analytics: The Seibu Lions Bullpen

When it comes to the world of Analytics, Tatsushi Masuda shines brightest so far in 2015.

With interleague play underway in the land of the Rising Sun, we've come to a point in the season where the Lions bullpen has amassed enough of a sample size for us to take a closer look at their individual performances to date.

If you haven't already, please read the post on the starters' analysis. In that post, I go over the calculations for the metric we're using to analyze pitcher performance (Fielding Independent Pitching) and I go into the process of crunching these numbers. And we then take a look at the Lions rotation and how they're holding up in the world of sabermetrics.

Now for the bullpen, only 7 Lions bullpen pitchers have enough of a sizable sample size to be included in this study. We'll be comparing their FIPs to their ERAs from this year as well as previous seasons. Looking at prior years is a big part of analyzing whether something is a trend or a cold hard fact.

We start with Esmerling Vasquez. The Lions new foreign import, who was just recently deactivated and is eligible to return this Sunday.

2015

FIP: 3.52, ERA: 3.00 (18.0 IP in 16 games)

Early on, Esmerling Vasquez has shown signs of promise, while also flashing signs of head scratching. With all that said, these numbers show just how ridiculous the Lions management decision to deactivate Vasquez was. He's had issues with walks (his BB/9 is at 7.0) but he has a nasty repertoire which has yet to give up the long ball.

In my general opinion, relievers who don't give up the long ball are quite valuable because they rarely give up blow up innings. While pitchers who keep the ball in the part will have their ups and downs but the manager can limit them by recognizing when they're on their game or they're not. It's hard to tell whether or not these numbers will continue for Vasquez, but he'll need to keep his walks down when he returns.

Now onto the lefty reliever, Shota Takekuma.

2012

FIP: 3.93, ERA: 4.83 (started 4 games, made 10 relief appearances in 31.2 IP total)

2013

FIP: 6.45, ERA: 3.29 (started 2 games, made 7 relief appearances in 13.2 IP total)

2014

FIP: 3.34, ERA: 3.70 (started 1 game, while making 46 relief appearances in 48.2 IP total)

2015

FIP: 3.18, ERA: 3.63 (17.1 IP in relief)

Takekuma has really been up and down in his career. At the age of 25, it looks as though the lefty has found a place in the bullpen. He's nothing special, but he's respectable. He has plenty of control issues and that continues once again this year (BB/9 is 4.7 which is higher than his career BB/9 of 4.2). He strikes out a decent amount, but nothing to write home about. Once again, he shows an ability to keep the ball in the ballpark and let his defense decide how he's going to be written up in the headlines the next morning.

Jury is still out on Takekuma long term without a definitive long term sample size, but if I were Norio Tanabe, I would use a combination of Vasquez and Takekuma to get through a sticky situation in the 6th and 7th inning. Tanabe has previously shown this with Takekuma getting more innings when leading. A combination of the two can be effective enough, especially considering the other guys who we've yet to evaluate.

Next up: Toshihiro Iwao

2013

FIP: 6.62, ERA: 9.49 (12.1 IP in relief)

2014

FIP: 3.94, ERA: 1.80 (20.0 IP in relief)

2015

FIP: 3.31, ERA: 7.29 (21.0 IP in relief)

Another pitcher who was recently deactivated, Iwao is an interesting case study. He won't be eligible to return until June 6th, but I believe Iwao needs to stay there longer. The 27 year old has potential, his strikeout rate is tremendous (9.0 K/9 this year, 9.4 last year), but his control is atrocious (6.4 BB/9 this year).

His high strikeout rate, combined with his ability to keep the ball in the park has allowed him to receive more favorable FIP ratings than his ERA would indicate. There is no doubt that he has been a bit unlucky with BABIP but he needs to show better control to earn a move back to a place in the bullpen.

Yosuke Okamoto

2013

FIP: 3.29, ERA: 3.84 (started 6 games, 26 relief appearances, 77.1 IP total)

2014

FIP: 3.93, ERA: 4.06 (started 16 games, 6 relief appearances, 84.1 IP total)

2015

FIP: 5.51, ERA: 6.60 (started 3 games, 7 relief appearances, 30.0 IP total)

The 29 year old former starter has completely lost his way at this level. His walk rate is alright at best (3.3 BB/9) but he's getting beyond tagged and is giving up 2.1 home runs per 9 innings. A ridiculous rate that has no place anywhere above farm.

There's no statistical data that gives any bright spots for this particular player, I'm not sure what the Lions management will do with him in the future. He's eligible to return on June 1st, but I highly doubt he will be back. What exactly is he good for?

Atsushi Okamoto

2010

FIP: 3.57, ERA: 3.09 (43.2 IP in relief)

2011

FIP: 3.16, ERA: 2.11 (55.1 IP in relief)

2012

FIP: 3.57, ERA: 4.11 (57.0 IP in relief)

2013

FIP: 3.46, ERA: 4.50 (18.0 IP in relief)

2014

FIP: 3.58, ERA: 2.75 (39.1 IP in relief)

2015

FIP: 3.79, ERA: 2.60 (17.1 IP in relief)

Here's a great example on how useful FIP can be, especially with lots of long term data. You can see from the elder Okamoto's numbers that his ERA's tend to fluctuate, while his FIP's stay pretty consistent. Fluctuating ERA's can suggest that he's been on the good and bad side of luck, and you have to expect Okamoto's FIP to return to the 3.57 area, his strikeouts are down which could be because of age, but his walk rate is looking very good.

He'll need to keep the home runs down to the level we're used to, but Okamoto looks to be another reliable option looking forward. Tanabe has mostly used him in medium leverage situations for 2015, or when trailing.

Setup Man: Tatsushi Masuda

2013

FIP: 3.64, ERA: 3.76 (started 2 games, made 40 relief appearances in 52.2 IP total)

2014

FIP: 2.51, ERA: 2.82 (44.2 IP in relief)

2015

FIP: 1.40, ERA: 3.04 (23.2 IP in relief)

The 27 year old setup man is having a (current New York Yankees setup man) Dellin Betances type year for the Lions. He's striking everyone out and quite frankly, he's been unlucky to have not performed better in the ERA category. He's been the Lions best relief pitcher, and that's because of his ability to blow guys away, and avoid the long ball.

His walk rate is a tad over 2.5 which will do and is around his normal rate, while his strikeout rate has gone from 7.5 in 2013 to a whopping 10.1. I think Tanabe should consider using Masuda for multiple innings to shorten the bridge, but whether Masuda can pitch well after sitting down is something that has yet to be seen. He has only gone one notable game beyond one inning, which was in Hokkaido where he was asked to get four outs and barely escaped. 

Closer: Tomomi Takahashi

2013

FIP: 2.91, ERA: 3.38 (18.2 IP in relief)

2014

FIP: 1.70, ERA: 2.01 (62.2 IP in relief)

2015

FIP: 3.24, ERA: 1.35 (20.0 IP in relief)

After a superhuman year in 2014 which was his first season as the closer, 2015 has so far been a solid year, but not nearly the kind of year the Lions closer has been used to having. His career strikeout rate of 10.9 has nearly been cut in half to 6.2 but even with that he still posts a solid 3.24 which any other pitcher would love to have.

All he has to do is just increase his strikeout rate just a little more and he'll be back to having those superhuman numbers. The 26 year old lefty is an impressive specimen and will only get more fascinating as his career goes on. The Lions are in good hands with him at the back end of their rotation for the next several years.

Overall, though the bullpen has been much maligned at times this season, the numbers show that this bullpen is something that is workable. As the season goes on, several strategies to get out of jams will need to be employed. I nominate the usage of pitching Masuda for multiple innings as the best out of all the solutions but in the meantime, using Takekuma and Vasquez in tandem should be a serviceable solution to creating a bridge to get to the back end of the Lions bullpen which is just tremendous. We will revisit these numbers later on in the season to provide further clarity on who these pitchers are as players.

As soon as the return date of Lions ace Takayuki Kishi is confirmed, I will craft up a post that analyzes Kishi in depth to give our fellow Lions fans and anyone else a key of what to expect from him going forward.

Until then, Ganbarre Raionzu 頑張れ /  ライオンズ!

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Lions Weekly Digest: Hitting gets cold, middle relief fails

Rakuten celebrates a series win against the Lions.

The Lions lost two out of three in the first series against Chiba, where there were some nightmare outings by the pitching.

Game 1 saw a pitcher's duel between Ken Togame and Hideaki Wakui.  Offense started to come alive in the 5th inning, where neither side was able to get a shutdown inning until then Top of the 8th. In the bottom of the 7th, Shogo Akiyama got a leadoff double and advanced to third base on a sacrifice fly from Takumi Kuriyama.

Hideto Asamura, who's had a decent track record against Wakui, found the gap and the go-ahead run came to the plate. Chiba might have left Wakui in an inning too long.

Tatsushi Masuda didn't make it easy on himself in the 8th inning. He had runners on 1st and 2nd with only one out, but was able to get the ground ball for a 6-4-3 double play and end the threat. Closer Tomomi Takahashi shut the door with a 1-2-3 ninth inning and secured the win.

Game 2 wasn't as fortunate for the Lions, as Ryoma Nogami gave up multiple homers in his first start returning from injury. Even though Seibu tied the game in the bottom of the 6th, manager Norio Tanabe made a controversial move.

The bases were loaded with one out and Ginjiro Sumitani was at the plate. Ernesto Mejia was on third base and Tanabe chose to pinch run him, substituting Ryota Wakiya in his place. Wakiya should be in for defense when the Lions are winning, but Tanabe felt Sumitani could get a sac fly and the upgrade of speed would make the difference.

Sumitani would ground out into a 6-4-3 double play, ending any threat. The top of the 7th had an ugly meltdown all with two outs, as Nogami couldn't get a third. Esmerling Vasquez came in as relief, but he also coughed up multiple hits and went back up by three runs.

Even though the Lions answered back with a run in the bottom of the 8th, Yosuke Okamoto gave it right back in the top of the 9th, which was the game losing run. The Lions scored two in the bottom of the ninth on a single by Asamura, as he represented the game-winning run. However, Takeya "Okawari-kun" Nakamura grounded into a double play to end it.

Game 3 was a dumpster fire for pitchers, where Wade LeBlanc was tattooed with two home runs, leading to an early 5-0 lead after three innings. He wasn't able to finish the third, where Okamoto came in as the long reliever. In total, the Lions gave up five home runs as Alfredo Despaigne and Shogo Nakamura had two each.

After the first series of the week, the Lions made a swap with their foreigners on the roster. They sent down Esmerling Vasquez and activated Miguel Mejia after Game 2, where he played in the ninth inning of Game 3. They also sent down Wade LeBlanc and Y. Okamoto. As a corresponding move, they activated IF Anthony Seratelli and P Tatsuya Oishi.

In the first outing against Rakuten, it was a pitcher's duel between Kazuhisa Makita and Wataru Karashima with the latter making his 2015 debut.

Makita had several runners on base and was due to allow some runs, both of which happened with two outs. The first run came off a clutch two-out single from Motohiro Shima. After Okawari-kun hit a solo home run, Makita would give up a run in the 5th inning.

With runners on first and second and no outs, a failed bunt attempt by Kazuya Fujita being caught by Sumitani, it led to a 2-6 double play with the runner being doubled up at second base. Immediately after, Ginji Akaminai found the gap on a double and it would be the game winning run.

The Lions had a chance in the eighth inning after Naoto Watanabe reached first base on an error. However, Tanabe called for Sumitani to bunt with one out, giving only one chance to equalize. He called for Seratelli to make his debut with a pinch hit at-bat. Seratelli would line out on a full-count, ending any threat.

While it's common in NPB to concede a second out knowing a tie game can happen on a hit by the next batter, this is a move we disagree with knowing the probability is reduced to one batter. Sure, there is a risk that Sumitani could have grounded into a double play, but the Lions need to score two runs in order to win anyways.

M. Mejia would give up a grand slam in the top of the 9th, ending any chance of a late comeback. It was the second time this week where the 9th inning pitcher would give up runs and putting the game out of reach.

Game 2 vs. Rakuten involved back to back blasts by Kuriyama and Asamura against Kenny Ray. Yusei Kikuchi had some up and down innings, but he allowed only two runs and pulled off a few Houdinis in the process through six.

It took the bottom of the 7th for the 2-2 tie to finally break. After Yuji Kaneko got on base as the leadoff hitter, they called for Akiyama to bunt. We here at Graveyard baseball disagreed with this move knowing that Akiyama is a leadoff hitter, but this move worked out.

Kuriyama would single and then Asamura would be the hero with a two-run double in the gap to take the lead. Masuda and Takahashi made simple work out of the pen and the Lions won only their second game of the week. Seventh-inning reliever Shota Takekuma was credited with his fourth win of the season.

For game three Takahiro Norimoto escaped multiple chances with runners on base. Chun-Lin Kuo had a poor start, allowing 3 runs in three innings and Toshihiro Iwao couldn't help in relief, where the Lions were in an early 5-1 hole.

The Lions had a rally in the fifth inning after Okawari-kun had an RBI double to cut the lead to 5-3. Seratelli had another chance with the bases loaded as Mejia was hit by a pitch and Mori struck out, but he too also K'd and ended the threat.

Seibu couldn't add more, where there was also a rally in the seventh inning as Kuriyama and Asamura were on base with no outs. Okawari-kun grounded into a 5-3 double play and Mejia struck out. After only one runner on base for the eighth, Yuki Matsui closed the door in the ninth, handing the Lions their fourth loss of the week to finish 2-4 heading into Interleague play.

The Lions aren't the worst team, but the hitting was not executing this week with only eight runs combined against Rakuten. They also buried themselves until it was too late against Chiba, where majority of their runs came late in the game when they were down by a huge margin.

We've learned the middle relief is vulnerable and that the Lions wrongfully swapped Vasquez for M. Mejia this week, leading to a poor effort in the pen. Mejia was deactivated quickly after three games for Iwao.

The Pacific League tightened up a tad, with Chiba and Rakuten both on the tail. Interleague play begins this week, starting on Tuesday against the Giants where it will be a tough outing. The good news is, Takayuki Kishi made his first rehab start this week and he could return within the next three weeks.

In the meantime, it was a positive in their last game where Kazuki Miyata, Oishi and Atsushi Okamoto combined for 5.1 scoreless innings, giving the Lions's bats a chance to come back.

It would be good to have a 4-2 week, but realistically, I think 3-3 is the most doable where they will see the Giants and Tigers.

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NPB Interleague Play: Tomoya Mori to start in Right Field?

The Central League cited Travel reasons as a reason to reduce the interleague schedule. Pacific League teams play as far North as Hokkaido and as South as Fukuoka.

The 2015 NPB season is about to take its turn to Interleague play starting on May 26. Before posting about the Seibu Lions, here is a small background to the current Interleague play format.

NPB changed their format to an 18-game interleague schedule with one three game series against each of the six teams in the opposite league. It is very similar to how MLB would format interleague play prior to when the Houston Astros became an American League team and were initially in the National League. Interleague play will be from May 26 to June 14 this year.

Previously, there were 24 games multiple two-game series which would be home and away against each team in the opposite league. This would have four games (two home, two away) against each team for a total of six series. It would also give fans of any team to have the ability to go to see their team at any location at least once during the year.

Now, NPB is on pace to see each opposite league stadium every two years. Today for example, a fan of the Chunichi Dragons living in Hokkaido can see them play in the Sapporo Dome against the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters this year, but will not see them locally until 2017 after the series from June 29-July 1.

One fascinating aspect when the leagues crossfire is when the designated hitter is added or subtracted depending on which stadium you are in. Like in MLB, if a game is played in a Central League Stadium, the pitcher must bat. The designated hitter is adopted only in the Pacific League.

The Lions had Tomoya Mori play in right field briefly while in the Eastern League.

Fast forward to the Lions, where their designated hitter is an everyday player traditionally batting sixth in the lineup in Tomoya Mori. Before the year started, some prognosticators thought Mori would cause a catcher controversy with incumbent C Ginjiro Sumitani with his hitting abilities.

With the designated hitter about to be gone for nine interleague games on the road against the Yomiuri Giants (Kyojin), Chunichi Dragons and Yokohama DeNA Baystars, they will need to insert Mori in a different way. 

Kyodo News writer Jim Allen correctly suggested the idea where the Lions needed to put him in the lineup everyday because of his bat and it has paid off. Sumitani is still the catcher for his defense, while Mori can provide protection for Ernesto Mejia batting sixth.

Mori has continued to be on a great pace through 41 games this season, with an OPS of over .900. He is second on the team in home runs with nine, only one behind Takeya "Okawari-kun" Nakamura.

With his power hitting being a factor and a threat on offense, the Lions tried out Mori as a right fielder during a farm game in the Eastern League on Tuesday.

In Japan, no transactions are needed to send a player down to the Ni-gun (second team) as all players are eligible even if they're on the Ichi-gun (first team). There are no waivers or designating a player for assignments, meaning no team can lose a someone if they take him off the 28-man roster for the Ichi-gun. The only way this happens is if a club chooses to terminate his contract, as the Baystars did with Yulieski Gurriel earlier this year.

The Seibu Lions' farm team plays their home games next door (highlighted in green)to their traditional home in the Seibu Dome.

It can be common for an Ichi-gun player to participate in a Ni-gun game in the day time while playing with the top team for the night within a few hours of each other. The Lions ni-gun home stadium is literally right next door to the Seibu Dome, making it even more convenient for a bench player who is seldomly used to get some playing time and prevent rust.

The right fielder position on the Lions has been a revolving door throughout the 2015 season. While centerfield and left field have been consistent with Shogo Akiyama and Takumi Kuriyama, respectively, the Lions have started seven different players at right field. This list includes Fumikazu Kimura, Ryo Sakata, Tomohito Yoneno, Hichori Morimoto, Masato Kumashiro, Shogo Saito and mostly recently, Yutaro Osaki.

They could make Mori the eighth person to start in RF when interleague play starts next Tuesday. He was drafted as a catcher out of high school in 2013, but there hasn't been a large emphasis on playing him in the field with Sumitani behind the plate. Mori has played 10 games for the ni-gun as catcher, but he could take the RF void for interleague play.

So far, they've only inserted Mori for one farm game at RF this week, where he was only in for the first half of the game. If the Lions want his bat in the lineup for games in Central League stadiums, don't be surprised if he becomes the right fielder with his defense being unproven.

As an Oakland A's fan, I was used to seeing multiple catchers in one lineup. In 2014, they often had Derek Norris was behind the plate, John Jaso as a designated hitter and Stephen Vogt playing in RF or at 1B. Former catcher Ray Fosse would applaud the Lions if Mori and Sumitani are in the lineup and both on the field in the coming weeks.

This might have been a one-game aberration for Mori, but with the continuous changes in right field, his chances of playing in the outfield can't be written off.

UPDATE 5/22: It appears that Jason Coskrey of the Japan Times has confirmed through a beat writer that Mori will be in right field for all nine interleague games in Central League Stadiums. 

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Homemade Analytics: A Look At the Lions Rotation With FIP

Some of you may be scoffing at the use of math in baseball. And during my short time following NPB, I've been disappointed at the lack of statistical information beyond ERA and the usual counting statistics. In fact, not even specific game logs for the starting pitcher are easy to find.

I've always been fascinated by information, and without massive amounts of information, I feel improper when creating an opinion without the proper use of information. It's impossible to get too complicated with Japanese statistics, the only way that can be done is when Japanese ballparks install the proper "f/x" technology in all their stadiums. F/x technology has been installed in all 30 ballparks in MLB and has allowed for new age tracking of defensive analytics that properly assess defensive performance and makes statistics like errors and fielding percentage completely obsolete. With that, it's still impossible to assess Japanese players defensively.

With the stat FIP, we can assess pitchers' performance with a true assessment of what's in their control. As is explained more on fangraphs, studies have shown that the majority of pitchers have little to no control over what happens on balls in play. He has no control over defense, luck, or anything of that variety. All he can control are walks, hit by pitches, strikeouts and home runs. And that is exactly what Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) measures.

ERA is a great way of determining how many runs are scored in a 9 inning period, but it doesn't show anything about how lucky or how unlucky the pitcher was during a given time. And that's where FIP comes in, I urge all of you to use these stats next to the ERA of that pitcher to create a good representation in your mind on what kind of pitcher he is.

First a quick demonstration of how to calculate these statistics.

FIP is calculated with the following formula:

FIP=HR*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)*3-K*2

*'s are multiplication signs, remember your order of operations.

All that is then divided by IP

You then add the NPB Constant (2.74) which is determined by the run producing environment (in MLB it's usually around 3.2), to the number you just calculated and then you have your FIP.

As you can see from the equation, Home Runs are a severe penalty to a pitcher when measuring FIP, while strikeouts are a good way of lowering the number. The perfect FIP pitcher is one that has tremendous control, is crafty and can throw a lot of strikeouts, while rarely being punished by the long ball. And if anyone finds this pitcher tell Norio Tanabe!

You should read FIP just like you would ERA, a sub 3.00 ERA or close to it is tremendous and anything over 4.00 ERA is not very good. Same goes for FIP.

Now it's time to get to the analytics.

Let's start with Ken Togame.

Here's a look at Togame's previous seasons.

2012
FIP: 3.19, ERA: 2.72 (only started one game this season, 53.0 IP total this season)

2013
FIP: 3.15, ERA: 3.45 (started 26 games and threw 165.1 IP in total)

2014
FIP: 3.94, ERA: 3.66 (made 8 starts in 59.0 IP)

2015 so far
FIP: 3.76, ERA: 2.02

Judgments based on the numbers, there's not a lot of data to base off of his career in total as a starter but judging off of his 2013 season, Togame would've remained in the rotating during the 2014 season. It turns out that 2014 was an injury-ridden season for Togame, a hip injury limited him, with that knowledge in mind, you can throw that season out.

It should be noted that it's still early in the season, and a full season sample size is best when looking at FIP, but it's still fun to be a fan and assess performance at this point in the year. So far in 2015, Togame has seen a small spike in his strikeout rate (he's never had a K per 9 innings higher than 7.0, it's now at 7.7), a level of control that compares to his walk rate in 2013, and while seeing more home runs given up than ever before in his career. Too early to really make any clear judgments, especially with 2014 being almost completely thrown out of the statistical debate. The question is, will his defense continue to allow his ERA to outperform his FIP by such a considerable margin? That's something we will have to monitor as the season goes on.

Next up: Kazuhisa Makita

2011
FIP: 2.46, ERA: 2.61 (Was a closer for much of the year, then was put into the rotation: 127.2 IP)

2012
FIP: 2.58, ERA: 2.43 (Full time starter with 178 IP)

2013
FIP: 3.56, ERA: 2.60 (Full time starter with 166.0 IP)

2014
FIP: 3.55, ERA: 3.74 (Full time starter with 170.2 IP)

2015 so far
FIP: 3.16, ERA: 2.08 (Full time starter, sample size of 52.0 IP)

Not a big strikeout guy, Makita shows impeccable control and controls the long ball quite well. With the lack of strikeouts (his highest K/9 was in 2011 at 6.1), a reliance on his defense is required for his ERA to outperform his FIP. So far in 2015, his ERA has proven to be a great indictment on the Lions defense behind him.

The year 2015 proves to be a make or break year for a true representation of Makita's typical FIP, especially with the past two years being almost identical and his first two years having similar impressive marks. The normal for Makita (who's 30 years old and nearing the end of his prime as a starter) is probably somewhere in between, what to look for going forward is the amount of home runs he gives up, if they spike, he'll probably end with a mark like 2013 or 2014. If it declines or stays the same, look for him to have an FIP close to 3.00.

Next Up: Ryoma Nogami

I skipped the first couple years of his career due to a lack of a sample size that's worthwhile. He was also a bullpen member in his first few years with the team.

2012
FIP: 3.86, ERA: 2.97 (Started 18 games for a grand total of 115.1 IP)

2013
FIP: 3.92, ERA: 3.95 (started 24 games for a grand total of 152.2 IP)

2014
FIP: 4.38, ERA: 4.49 (started 21 games for a grand total of 120.1 IP)

2015 (coming into today's start)
FIP: 3.05, ERA: 1.98 (started 6 games for a sample size of 36.1 IP)

This one is really hard to explain, with marks so ugly in the previous season and with a decent sample size, just when we seemed to have Nogami figured out he has a start to the season like this. At the same time, it is a case of 6 starts and Nogami has all of a sudden become allergic to the home run, which had been a problem in his career in previous years (the past two years, Nogami has finished the year with a HR/9 over 1.0). He's also seen better control come his way, at 2.0 BB/9, this is the lowest of his career.

All in all, the FIP smiles on these trends. Nogami is much like Makita, another guy who strikes out very few, in fact his already meager strikeout numbers are down this year, add that all up and you can see that the Lions defense has dramatically improved from their 2014 edition. I don't expect this to continue, even at the best case scenario, I expect Nogami to come back down to earth and probably finish with an FIP at 3.75 or higher.

Now: Wade LeBlanc

2015
FIP: 5.43, ERA: 3.43 (42.0 IP)

Since there's nothing to compare to, it's really hard to make a judgment off of 42 innings but this is ugly. Watching LeBlanc pitch, I've said to myself, "That the only way teams keep giving him jobs is just because he's a lefty." and sometimes he makes it work even though he seems to have nothing in his stuff at times. A problem early on with LeBlanc has been having trouble putting away hitters, and that shows with his 5.1 K/9. He's never really been much of a strikeout guy, especially when he was pitching in MLB. The one thing that's surprising about LeBlanc is his lack of control, his BB/9 is up to 3.9 and that's just atrocious. Especially since that's never been a problem during his career elsewhere, so you have to expect that this number won't last.

Add that up with a home run rate that is just not going to get the job done (his HR/9 is 0.9) and you have an FIP that is as ugly as this one. With all that said, it appears that once again luck and his defense have allowed LeBlanc to get by so far in his first 7 starts. I don't expect that number to stay that high, but a number around 4.00 will likely be what LeBlanc finishes with in his first season in Saitama.

Lastly: Chun-Lin "Kaku" Kuo

2015
FIP: 5.34, ERA: 4.91 (25.2 IP, 6 starts)

Another one that's ugly, but with another small sample size, it's once again a difficult call for the 23 year old from Taiwan. A lack of strikeouts, lots of walks, and an affinity for dingers has made this an ugly exercise for Kuo. Once again, the defense makes things look a little better but in the end, Kuo seems to not be doing a whole lot right on the mound for the Lions.

There will be another post on this subject when it comes to the bullpen. We will have to revisit this later on in the season, perhaps at a good midway point and then really we'll see how things are going. We might do a post on Kikuchi if he continues to get starts. And most importantly, once Kishi returns to the rotation, we'll probably have a statistical analysis of Kishi when he returns.

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