2023 Reality Check: Lions players on the bubble

 

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The 2023 NPB season passed the halfway mark in July and with the month almost over, it's a time to brace for one of the harder days in professional sports.

When the regular season is in it's final weeks, teams around the league will need to announce their players not returning for the next year with no contract offer coming or as they say, senryokugai (戦力外) in Japanese. 

Last season, the Lions had three veterans (Ken Togame, Tetsuya Utsumi and Shota Takekuma) retire, which resulted in a several players surviving the cut. They were forced to make only two senryokugai to make room for the most recent draft class. Others were dropped down to an Ikusei contract. 

With several players living to fight another year, time is running out for someone. There will be senryokugai as well as someone placed on the Active Player draft since two players are eligible for placement. 

For this list, we will not mention ikusei players or those who could retire.

Statistically, well mention the ichi-gun slashline of AVG/OBP/SLG. Stats shown are reflective of games through July 23. 

Here are the candidates the Lions could be parting ways with at the deadline or the end of the year:

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P Yaku Cho: (0-0), 9.00 ERA in Five games

Cho was part of the free compensation for the loss of Tomoya Mori going to the Orix Buffaloes. This decision hasn't panned out as one hoped as he has spent majority of this season in ni-gun. He may get another year of grace, but the leash will be short. 

OF Yuji Kaneko: .190/.235/.241 in 44 games

The Lions locked up Kaneko before he even reached domestic free agency, but everything has backfired since this extension. Now entering a contract season, he's mostly fallen out of favor with younger options. 

Gone are the days where he could steal a base on the fly.  Recently he's been playing Ichi-gun games, but at 33 years old, it's safe to say his best days are behind him and it's worth letting him go. 

P Tetsuya Miyagawa: (1-1), 6.30 ERA in two games

A former first round draft pick, Miyagawa hasn't panned out like the team envisioned. His location was always off no matter the role and now he's down to being a spot starter. He was useful in 2022, but it's the strange trend of going South that always leaves room for doubt.. 

C Masato Saito: No ichi-gun games in 2023

A backup catcher his whole career. He's literally played one game each in 2021 and 2022 mostly seen in the bullpen or ni-gun. Saito is the second oldest catcher on the team after veteran Masatoshi Okada. There doesn't appear to be any room for his services. 

IF Naomasa Yohkawa: .158/.273/.316 in seven games

Taken from the Active Player (Rule 5) draft, Yohkawa has failed to keep an ichi-gun job and is one of the older players on the roster. 

P Katsuhiko Kumon: (0-0), 3.86 ERA in three games

Kumon was the veteran presence that came back when the Lions traded Fumikazu Kimura and Ryusei Sato to the Fighters. He wasn't bad depth previously, but younger pitchers have taken the innings over Kumon. Time is running out.

P Ichiro Tamura: (0-0), 1.80 ERA in five games

Tamura's stints at the ichi-gun have been short lived. Mostly a mop up pitcher, it's possible he's too old or has no upside to be a regular contributor. He is a productive ni-gun closer, but it may not be enough. 

P Yutaro Watanabe: No games in 2023

Watanabe was thought to be a promising Pitcher for the Lions staff, but he hasn't built on his rookie season. He's still young as he turns 23 in September, but it's not unheard of to let go of someone under 25. 

OF Seiji Kawagoe: .133/.297/.233 in 12 games

Kawagoe was recently traded to the Chunichi Dragons and being age 30, it was easy to list him here when initially writing this. The Lions thought the same as he was shipped away for IF Wataru Takamatsu.  

OF Brandon Taiga Tysinger: No Games in 2023

Tysinger had a promising 2021 after some injuries forced him to be called up early. His career has since come to a stall with no good impressions in ni-gun.  His upside is starting to dwindle now that's he's 25.  

IF Kakeru Yamanobe: .167/.211/.167 in 12 games

Yamanobe was thought to be insurance when the Lions 2B position could have had a void. Instead, Shuta Tonosaki filled this while Yamanobe's bat remained poor, something he's never been able to recover from.  As a result, he's mostly a part time player if not defensive replacement.  Being 29 years old means the upside is gone.

IF Hotaka Yamakawa: .254/.290/.322 in 17 games

Not much to say on this given what happened. Seibu Holdings has a shareholders meeting and discussed how it's likely Yamakawa will be let go by season's end. With him being under investigation and awaiting indictment, the Lions have him under an undisclosed self-suspension until further notice. It's likely he'll never suit up for the team again.

P Katsunori Hirai (Free agent): (3-3), 2.05 ERA in 31 games

Hirai will reach domestic free agency at the end of the season with seven years of service time. Taken in the same draft class as Sosuke Genda and Tatsuya Imai, he will likely test the market.

OF Aito Takeda: .228/.240/.344 in 49 games

Aito was added back to the ichi-gun recently and his first appearance for the first time in 38 games. He started well, but has been inactive longer than someone would want. Having been in the organization since 2016, it's not clear what kind of future or upside he really has. 

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Foreigners

Import players get their own section and evaluation each year given the window of time to make an impact needs to come sooner than later. It's a time to look back and project who is staying or going.

Mark Payton: .178/.228/.329 in 20 games

Payton has spent majority of the season in ni-gun. To be fair, he had a weaker resume coming into NPB compared to most imports and his struggles in April showed. Recently he was called up and started on Sunday. 

He has a chance to flip the script, but if any deactivation happens, he's likely gone.

P Dietrich Enns: (1-8), 5.18 ERA in 9 games

Enns has also spent a fraction of this season in ni-gun with a lack of quality starts. His walk rate is too high, likely putting him on the outside and may have run his course from last season. 

We want to congratulate he and his wife on becoming parents earlier this season. 

Jesus Tinoco: (0-3), 3.18 ERA in 31 games

The Lions were hoping Tinoco could be a setup reliever. Instead, he takes the medium to low leverage situations with a mixed bag of results. He specifically struggles at location giving up massive hits and loud contact often.

He has an uphill battle if he wants another season in Japan.

Bo Takahashi: (0-0), 2.35 ERA in 16 games

Takahashi has mostly been a low leverage reliever unless there's a tie game situation and it's in extra innings. There's nothing flashy about his pitching, but he's done enough to stay at the ichi-gun the whole time.  

At this pace, he'll likely get an offer for another season in NPB.  One key thing about Takahashi is age being on his side for a foreigner, at only 26 years old, he can improve and is cost efficient. While 26 isn't old, domestic players have a shorter window on this. 

David MacKinnon: .258/.326/.403 in 85 games

MacKinnon is the only player to appear in every single game this season for the Lions. That alone is enough of a pace to earn a contract offer for 2024.  

He's one of only two players with at least 10 HRs on the team and despite his "no power" description of his playing style, MacKinnon is doing enough to be a pest in the lineup. The only thing we've learned is he isn't built to be a cleanup or power hitter, but thats alright. Unlike most import position players who come, MacKinnon is supposed to be a light hitter and play fine defense, which is what he's already doing.  At the pace of hitting, he's likely to stay around.

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Lions have hope for future behind youth experience

 

The 2023 Saitama Seibu Lions season is now thought to be a wash. It's not even at the halfway point yet, but the flaws are too much for the team to be taken seriously as an A-class contender.

That being said, this past weekend's series against the Rakuten Eagles showed glimpses of the future behind several first round draft picks. 

Takuya Hiruma made his debut and got his first career HR in the third game which was the eventual game winner. Many think he could be a five-tool player with bat comparisons to Masataka Yoshida.

The Lions waited to play him with wanting to manipulate the service time, which will save a bit for later and he'll be playing every day as long as he's healthy. 

Chihiro Sumida might not be an ace, but he's been an unlucky loser when it comes to pitcher decisions outside of his control. The Lions have been rather tight with using him, yet there's progress with what we're seeing on the mound.

As a trajectory, there's reason for optimism of being at least middle tier rotation starter. 

Kento Watanabe spent the entire 2022 season in ni-gun, but is now a starting 1B due to Hotaka Yamakawa in trouble.  With this necessity, the Lions have no choice but to give him a shot an opportunity to win a starting position.

His pop numbers may not be as flashy as his appearance, but will get a chance to develop by continuous play. 

All three players had at least a win or home run for the series in Sendai.

Despite having the worst record in interleague play, they can still avoid the Pacific League cellar.

It won't be about wins and losses in the standings from here on out, but the progress of the young players which we haven't seen for some time. 

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Almost everything has gone wrong for the Lions in 2023

 

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The Saitama Seibu Lions have become a trainwreck since the month of May began. This negative momentum has carried into Interleague play with a losing home stand against both the Chunichi Dragons and Yakult Swallows of the Central League, both of whom are in the cellar.

Too many issues to pick and point one instance, but here are some things we can decipher.

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The Outfield still can't hit

Offense has been an elephant in the room since 2020 and it really hasn't recovered since Shogo Akiyama signed with the Cincinnati Reds. 

Nobody can keep their everyday job as it's been a position by committee. Only Shohei Suzuki can afford to stay at the ichi-gun full-time, but "Aito" Takeda appears to not be an answer after a decent April. 

Others who have appeared up and down the rotation include Mark Payton, Gakuto Wakabayashi, Shinya Hasegawa, Yuji Kaneko, Manaya Nishikawa and Seiji Kawagoe. 

It's been a messy situation trying to hope someone can stick, but it's a failure.

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Yamakawa's downfall can't be an excuse

The most casual remark would mention the awful story of Hotaka Yamakawa awaiting a formal prosecution and being off the team for it. However, the Lions spent a good chunk of April without his presence and he didn't even hit a HR in the 17 games he appeared in.

It was veteran Takeya "Okawari-kun" Nakamura masking the offense with several HRs in April to have them at .500. Coming into this season, it was essential to find someone who can produce on offense not named Yamakawa as he would enter free agency, but now, very few can hit or have earned an everyday starting role. 

Shuta Tonosaki has been decent for what he is, but can't carry a team alone. David MacKinnon is also the only player to play in every game this season. He has been adequate in what he does, but there is room for improvement. 

It's been a terrible job at developing position players drafted in the last 8 years. 

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Bullpen is unreliable 

Most people said the Lions pitching would take a step back. However, most expected this with the rotation and instead it's the bullpen being a liability when it counts. Tatsushi Masuda has been nothing but shaky and there's a reason Kazuo Matsui put in a rookie in Minato Aoyama to try and close on opening day.

The setup roles for Katsunori Hirai and Shunsuke Sato look promising, but once it's the 9th inning, anything goes.

Import signings Jesus Tinoco is also inconsistent to have high leverage innings. 

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Rotation is mostly positive 

The only spark for the Lions had been Kaima Taira and Kona Takahashi carrying the load in the front of the rotation. They've currently operated under spot starters and others while Tatsuya Imai is down in ni-gun. At this rate, it's all desperation where nobody can last more than five innings. 

At least Taira is justifying his job in the rotation.

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Kazuo Matsui going through growing pains

While some decisions may not be his alone, Matsui has been criticized for certain bunt calls or even the use of relievers at the wrong time. He has manager experience from the ni-Gun level, so the excuses are thinner than what is seen on the surface. 

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Playing without Yamakawa is better for the long run

The Lions will be very familiar playing with no Yamakawa in the ichi-gun lineup as it's already been this way for majority of the season. Someone needs to step it up and unfortunately, the team is still waiting for Takuya Hiruma to play and appear at the ichi-gun.

For now, they just need to hope for someone to improve offensively as the season wears on and don't be too concerned about the standings. 

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Bonus: Former Lions imports released in Korea

In the offseason, there was the possibility of bringing back Brian O'Grady and Burch Smith for doing enough to earn a contract for 2023. 

Both players signed with the Hanwha Eagles and didn't even last two months in the KBO of Korea. Smith was released in April after a shoulder injury and only one start while O'Grady was let go on May 31. The latter failed to hit a Home Run and had an OPS under .400 in 22 ichi-gun games for the Eagles. 

Given the tier of KBO among foreign leagues, there isn't much regret in letting them walk.

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Report: Yamakawa under investigation for abusing woman

 

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Saitama Seibu Lions infielder Hotaka Yamakawa reportedly injured a woman for abuse, according to Bunshun. The report says things are under investigation. 

The media approached Yamakawa at his house on May 9, but he couldn't be reached for a full comment. 

Yamakawa, 31, has been the star of the Lions since 2017, having more than 200 career home runs, an MVP and three-time Best IX award winner.

According to the report, Yamakawa was with a woman he wasn't married to.  There were sexual interactions with her consent. The report said the woman was bleeding. 

Yamakawa is already married and has a daughter. He admitted to having an incident with this woman, but wouldn't make further comments saying it is up to his lawyers.

On the field, this report came out nearly an hour before the Saitama Seibu Lions were about to play the Chiba Lotte Marines on May 10. Yamakawa was batting fifth in the line and starting at 1B going 1-4. 

The Lions already had a stretch of games without Yamakawa as others like Takeya Nakamura and even David MacKinnon picked up the slack showing power wasn't an issue.

There is currently no statement from the Lions at the time of this writing.

The last scandal involving the Lions was slander from the wife of Haruka Yamada messaging the wife of Sosuke Genda. Yamada was eventually traded to the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters for Ryusei Sato.  

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2023 Lions flaws look tough to overcome

 

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The Saitama Seibu Lions are 30 games into the 2023 season with a 15-15 record, good for fourth place and B-class in the Pacific League.

While they aren't the worst team in NPB, it may be hard to take them seriously with the pace they're on.

The Bullpen regression is worse than expected

Many believed the Lions pitching numbers and run prevention from 2022 was a fluke to carry them into the postseason. This time, the bullpen isn't the same since Kaima Taira moved to the rotation, Yoshinobu Mizukami is in ni-gun and Tatsushi Masuda is an uncomfortable liability.

Saturday's loss to Orix happened in the worst way possible and manager Kazuo Matsui is forced to scramble around with options. On Sunday, Minato Aoyama earned a save, but the rookie is still green and looks nowhere close to being in this position.

The Lions options in the bullpen before the 9th inning look good, but they can't find anyone to close it out. On paper, it was supposed to be Jesus Tinoco to take a back end role, but his wild command has forced him into low and medium leverage situations only. 

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New imports having minimal impact

When you're not a contender, it's up to the new foreign signings to make or break being competitive. The aforementioned Tinoco has been unable to earn a better role in the bullpen while Mark Payton was already taken off the ichi-gun roster after April. Both players have an uphill battle if they want their careers in Japan to stay alive. 

On the other hand, David MacKinnon has held his ground as an infielder while not lighting it up. He's been hitting his weight and played solid defense with six multi-hit games.

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Nakamura carrying offense is a blessing and curse

Not many would expect Takeya Nakamura to lead the team in HRs with seven total while Shuta Tonosaki is second with five.

Hotaka Yamakawa was out for multiple weeks, yet the power hitting wasn't an issue. This will be good long-term given it's possible Yamakawa walks in domestic free agency. 

Tonosaki had an impressive April, but the outfield is still flaws with only "Aito" being a regular. It would be nice if Gakuto Wakabayashi and/or Shohei Suzuki could earn a regular spot.

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Takumi Kuriyama's career on pace to end sooner than later

The former captain and all-time hits leader Kuriyama has mostly seen pinch-hit opportunities and hasn't succeeded like in the past. Right now, he might be at the stage of his career like "Saburo" Omura was for the Chiba Lotte Marines at the end.

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The rotation looks fine 

As unlucky as Chihiro Sumida has been, he's doing his part in the middle of the starting rotation after a disastrous rookie season.  Kaima Taira has transitioned to being a starter without much issue while Tatsuya Imai and Kona Takahashi lead the way. 

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2023 Seibu Lions digest: Poor offense salvaged for Opening Weekend

 

The Saitama Seibu Lions opened the 2023 season taking one out of three games from the Orix Buffaloes. They are above the Chiba Lotte Marines in the standings as they have avoided last place through the opening weekend.

Kona Takahashi and Kaima Taira both had quality starts going at least seven innings. Unfortunately, Opening Day was a disaster as they blew one in front of a sold out crowd. 

It looked like Aito Takeda had the winning solo HR in the bottom of the 8th inning, but Minato Aoyama was called to make his debut in a closing situation for the 9th. With one out left, former Lions catcher Tomoya Mori hit a solo HR to tie it.

In the Top of the 10th, Jesus Tinoco gave up the losing HR on his first pitch to Yuma Mune and the Lions failed to score with runners on base all game. They stranded the walkoff runs on base for the 9th and 10th innings while squandering chances earlier.

However, manager Kazuo Matsui's decision to not use Tatsushi Masuda was vindicated as he was tattooed for three runs on five hits in mop up duty for Saturday's game. The 9-2 loss was mostly a struggle for Dietrich Enns, who gave up a HR to Yutaro Sugimoto. On offense, the Lions also has 12 hits, but stranded several runners off Sachiya Yamasaki. 

The final game saw better success with seven strong innings from Kaima Taira, making his starting debut. 

Both teams traded solo HRs with David MacKinnon recording his first in NPB. It took a chance in the bottom of the 8th for the Lions to score as Shohei Suzuki hit a gapper down the RF line to plate two runs and eventually scored on a passed ball. 

Aoyama was given the nod to close again and did it stranding two runners for the first win of the season and for manager Matsui.

The closing bullpen is a short term concern with Aoyama being thrust in there. It's going to be something to monitor as the season goes on and how Matsui decides to use his pitchers. 

From what we could decipher, it was a predetermined decision to have Aoyama as the closer. 

Offense is still a problem, hoping for stability in the outfield. Can only hope Mark Payton has a better series ahead too, as he struggled in the leadoff position. 

Will also need to take this time to announce I will be on vacation in April and won't have anything written for the next few weeks. 

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2023 Seibu Lions enter season with more question marks than answers

 

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The Saitama Seibu Lions ring in a new 2023 season being the end of one era and starting another.

Gone is Hatsuhiko Tsuji who retired and entering is Kazuo Matsui who has been the man in waiting ever since he returned in 2018.

There are plenty of storylines to look at from the roster construction and players hoping for success individually and as a team.

Here are some things to look for in Matsui's first season as skipper:

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Kaima Taira as a starter

One of the offseason subplots was Taira holding out during salary negotiations in hopes of becoming a starting pitcher to take the next step in his career. It's possible he has MLB aspirations in the future and entering a rotation will do this.

In preseason, he did his part with no issues, but it will be interesting to see if he has the stamina to go for 6-7 as a starter vs being a setup man or closer.

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Yamakawa in a contract year 

One of the scariest things entering 2023 is knowing Hotaka Yamakawa has domestic free agent rights when it's over. With the narrative of the Lions not being the best organization to play for and several wanting to walk for non-fiscal reasons, is he the next to join this club?

It also means he has to play well for 2023 to be a target. While he was the first half MVP on offense for 2022, he cooled down in the final months and the Lions struggled to hit. A one man show of Yamakawa isn't sustainable to be relevant and someone else needs to step it up even if we aren't thinking about him walking.

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Kazuo Matsui's approach

As with any new manager, Kazuo Matsui's style isn't known until he's in charge of games. He saw farm manager experience from 2019-2021 and knows the organization from top to bottom as a result of seeing several guys in ni-gun.

Being a leader takes a lot and as a younger mind compared to Tsuji, it will be interesting to see how he does as a skipper.

Many have anticipated this era the moment he was brought back as a player/coach in 2018. If anything, at least he isn't thrown into the fire with some years of grooming and experience before being in this position.

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New faces and foreigners

The Lions only kept two imports from 2022 in Dietrich Enns and Bo Takahashi for this season. IF David MacKinnon, OF Mark Payton and P Jesus Tinoco are hoping to be impact players and at least two of them will need to be ichi-gun regulars in order to be relevant for 2023. 

Offensively, the Lions were below average. Both Payton and MacKinnon don't describe themselves as power hitters, but if they can contribute with doubles, getting on base and slap hitting, that would be a best case scenario. Don't measure either person by home runs.

In a minor pickup from the active player draft, Naomasa Yohkawa was plucked from the Hanshin Tigers as a reserve infielder who could matchup in select situations. Expect him to be a specialist against left-handed pitchers. 

Yaku Cho was the compensation selection from Orix as the team lost Tomoya Mori. He could be a spot starter or reliever. 

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Catcher position should be balanced

Tomoya Mori walking in free agency looks like the biggest blow to the team since Shogo Akiyama left for MLB. However, the defense should be improved as Mori regressed behind the plate from his peak seasons.

Sena Tsuge and Yuto Koga were drafted for a reason and both catchers shouldn't be a liability behind the dish. Offense unfortunately won't be as threatening as Mori, but this isn't the biggest hole on offense compared to another unit. 

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The outfield needs stability

This is an elephant in the room that's been ongoing since Akiyama signed with the Cincinnati Reds. There's hope Gakuto Wakabayashi can be healthy, Shohei Suzuki could retain an ichi-gun position and first-round draft pick Takuya Hiruma can be an impact rookie.

No matter who is starting, the Lions need someone to earn a regular starting job and keep it all season. Last year, they were hoping Brian O'Grady would do this, but his regression after July led to a benching in September, forcing a scramble for someone else. It would t hurt if Mark Payton can stay on top for one of those three positions. 

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Can Kona Takahashi be a true ace?

Many don't like the Lions as a whole for not having anyone with MLB potential. They don't strikeout anyone consistently in the rotation and Kona Takahashi is viewed as a front end starter on most teams. 

This off-season, Takahashi said he wants to pitch in MLB someday and the Lions talked about how he has to earn a possible posting. Not many take Tatsuya Imai and Wataru Matsumoto seriously either. 

An argument can be made they're only good at run prevention due to Sosuke Genda and Shuta Tonosaki on the infield. 

This applies to the bullpen as well from Yoshinobu Mizukami and Keisuke Honda as setup relievers. 

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Rookie impact?

The Lions recent draft picks could help a team if they're on the ichi-gun sooner than later. The aforementioned Hiruma needs to do something for 2023 to be a successful year. 

P Minato Aoyama could be in the bullpen if he earns a spot. It's possible IF Ryosuke Kodama could be a defensive replacement or pinch runner with his speed. It didn't hurt Kodama had reps at SS with Genda at the World Baseball Classic.

Maybe an ikusei gets promoted the way Natsuo Takizawa and Shinya Hasegawa were in 2022. 

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Expert picks

Japan Baseball Weekly had their annual prediction podcast episodes for both the Pacific and Central Leagues.

Here's what everyone had to say about where they expect the Lions to finish:

John E. Gibson (Yomiuri Shimbun): 6th

Gibson believes the Lions have lost more than they gained with Mori no longer there. Not a fan of Kona Takahashi trying to carry the rotation. It's going to cost them.

Jim Allen (Kyodo News): 3rd

Allen has the most optimistic tone of the bunch, primarily thinking the outfield has potential. He thinks Kazuo Matsui will bring something good to table. 

Claudio Rodriguez (Beisbol Japones): 4th

Rodriguez expects regression is expected and doesn't like the offense. However, he expects the pitching to keep the team competitive and not a complete collapse. 

Jason Coskrey (Japan Times): 6th

Coskrey says the pitching data from 2022 is too much of a fluke to repeat. Lots of uncertainty with Matsui being inexperienced. 

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The Competition

The Softbank Hawks are the clear-cut favorites being a loaded organization. Despite some offensive ups and downs, the return of Ryoya Kurihara should put them over the top. 

The Orix Buffaloes lost Masataka Yoshida to MLB, gained Mori and still have a top pitching staff in baseball. Offense is still below average with a lack of pop, even when it had Yoshida last year. Everything has gone right for the team in the last two years, making up for all the shortcomings in the past. 

If they can be above average in offense, Orix is a lock for A-class. 

The Chiba Lotte Marines have a new manager with uncertainty ahead. While the starting pitching should be great, can the offense take that next step? Plenty of position players need a breakout season for relevance after being a disappointment in 2022. They should be more than just a Roki Sasaki show. 

The Rakuten Eagles stripped manager Kazuhisa Ishii of his GM duties as he only has an on-field role this season. The rotation is mostly old and some could argue they have the best offense in the PL, but Ishii's leadership and managerial skills have shown games aren't played on paper. Could this be the end of Ishii?

The Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters have a new ballpark and should take a step up from year one under skipper Tsuyoshi Shinjo. Offensively they have some power and some above average pitchers. They're going to need a breakout season from Kotaro Kiyomiya to make a push for A-class, but the youth could easily have them sneak up on the competition. 

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The Predictions 

1. Softbank Hawks

2. Orix Buffaloes

3. Chiba Lotte Marines

4. Saitama Seibu Lions

5. Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters

6. Rakuten Eagles

I see problems with the Lions offense to repeat having a winning record from 2022. Marines finally take a step forward on offense while the Hawks return to being the class of the Pacific League. 

Nothing would be surprising from 2-6 unless the Fighters just sprout up to second place. There's enough parity and lack of offense in the PL for anyone to claim A-class.

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