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Newspaper outlets in Japan broke the news that Shohei Otani would be posted. Photo via Jason Coskrey.
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In what has been a story in the making for years, the Japanese media reported that Shohei Otani
announced his intentions of going to MLB after the 2017 season on Wednesday afternoon (Tuesday night in U.S.A. time).
Otani, 23, has been a pitcher and hitter for the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters since 2013. On the mound in five seasons, he has a combined 40-15 record, 12 complete games, six shutouts and a 2.57 ERA.
He was an MVP for the Pacific League in 2016 and helped lead the Fighters to a Japan Series title in the same year. The 2016 season was his breakout year as a hitter, where his slashline was .322/.416/.588 with 22 home runs. He was limited on the mound last year due to a blister, but was still a threat being the team's DH.
When Otani was a top prospect out of high school at Hanamaki Higashi, there was speculation that he would forego the draft and head straight to a major league team. Despite telling teams to not draft him, he was still eligible and the Fighters were the only group to take him in a free-for-all. The Fighters would convince Otani to sign with the team after weeks of negotiation and the young phenom would not take the same path of Junichi Tazawa.
Otani will leave with an amateur status, making his availability to any team financially easier. At age 25, players born outside of the United States are considered free agents like a normal free agent. If he is younger than 25, however, foreign players are subject to the international bonus pools for their signing bonuses, which are between $4.75-5.75 million per team.
With a low max salary combined with a paltry posting fee, which is still being negotiated, it's anyone's guess as to where he signs as there cannot be an excessive financial offer compared to what Masahiro Tanaka or Yu Darvish would get.
There will be plenty stories about Otani for the next few months (let alone after he signs with a new team). While it's obvious he wants to go to the majors, we will answer some of the many FAQs that have come about with Otani and NPB:
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Why did Otani not enter North America when he could have out of high school and why are the Fighters willing to sell for almost nothing?
The Fighters "recruited" Otani the moment they drafted him despite the verbal advice of not having interest in NPB. They're a team who will take the best player on their draft board no matter the cost or risk. Had Otani refused to sign, the Fighters, like many sports teams, would end up wasting a 1st round draft pick.
Manager Hideki Kuriyama showed Otani a book titled "Otani's Dream" which had a plan of going to MLB, something Otani has always wanted to do. There was plenty of data showing success and failures from Japan going to the States. While we don't know the details of what was in this book from beginning to end, there was likely a plan for the team and himself on reaching certain goals.
It's probable that winning a Japan Series championship would speed up this process and the Fighters would give the green light for a posting to happen when he wants. Now that Otani has made his declaration that he wants the leave, the Fighters will fulfill their promise and approve of it.
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What kind of pitches does he have?
We wrote
this piece awhile back from 2015, but there could be more to update. In 2016, he had a slow start to the year on the mound and it was argued that he was showing off his changeup when it wasn't his ultimate strength. A more detailed piece on his arsenal will come later in the year.
Recently, he has set a record in NPB for fastest pitch hitting 165 km/h (102.5mph) on the radar gun. Velocity is there and he has the fork ball to stifle others.
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What has he been doing lately?
Otani has spent most of the 2017 injured or rehabbing while not at full strength. He dealt with a nagging ankle injury which kept him out of the 2017 World Baseball Classic. While he played in the opening week of the season, he didn't start playing regularly until near the All-star break in July where he was only a hitter.
It wasn't until July where he finally made an appearance on the mound. Even then, Otani has been on a strict pitch count limit as
most recently shown with less than 80 pitches. This season is all about becoming healthy as a pitcher and the Fighters hope by season's end he'll be 100%.
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What are some concerns of Otani?
Durability and health are two things that become a reason to hold back. He has dealt with injuries in the last two seasons with a blister in 2016 and an ankle which carried over into 2017. Most recently he strained his thigh after running to a base which kept him out of the lineup, rather than just off the mound.
Obviously the transition to MLB from NPB is always a concern for anyone coming over, but the workload of going every 4-5 days after pitching once a week is the biggest challenge for any starting pitcher.
The hitting part is still unproven compared to his pitching if it translates to the MLB level, but it will be worth a shot to see if his athleticism and bat can do anything.
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How did the Fighters use his bat and pitching in a season?
Majority of MLB scouts see Otani's pitching as the jewel of talent, but his bat is still strong. The common pattern in NPB is how starting pitcher's will only play once a week. Otani would typically pitch one day, get the following game off, then DH the next 3-4 games, then take the day off prior to his next start, which would then rinse and repeat.
However, there were a few select games where Otani would hit for himself and the DH was eliminated altogether. In 2014, he was seen playing right field on occasion, but the Fighters haven't done this recently.
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Ohtani or Otani?
Technically they're both right when it comes to grammar. While you do see "Ohtani" on the jersey, we personally will type Otani because it is on the
NPB website and journalists in Japan typing English must use that spelling. An interesting fact is that Otani himself prefers Ohtani. This might be hard for you to read Hiragana,
but an explanation can be seen here. "Ootani" is also technically correct, but no one in English would understand that one due to the sound.
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Why would Otani leave for MLB when he can make more money by waiting until he's 25?
Money is not what always makes the world go round in Japan. Several guys in NPB don't make a lot, but it is more for the love of the game. Otani does not care about the money by doing this and merely wants an opportunity to play in MLB, which has been his dream. Speculation came early on this, but no one knew the answer except Otani himself when he announced it.
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Where can we find highlights of Otani?
The best thing to do is search his name in Kanji, but there are plenty of ways to see him on youtube in English typing. Here's some tape we'll link for you:
For searching, I'd suggest copying and pasting his name 大谷 翔平 into any video services and see what you can find.
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How many MLB teams have looked at Otani?
Technically every MLB team knows or has seen tape of him. Whether a team is serious about it is another story. Teams had an early start in February of 2016 and 2017 as the Fighters used the San Diego Padres facility in Peoria, Arizona as a spring training location for a portion of camp.
Scouts are always in Japan, but his starts this season (which rarely have come due to his injury) are getting all the attention. Teams who have been documented to scout Otani's games this year include the Arizona Diamondbacks, Baltimore Orioles, Pittsburgh Pirates, New York Yankees, Seattle Mariners, Los Angeles Dodgers, Cleveland Indians, Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Toronto Blue Jays, Washington Nationals, Texas Rangers and Cincinnati Reds.
At the time of this writing, three of those teams would have their general manager make the trip to Japan in person.
Ranger GM Jon Daniels
was in Japan last May with two scouts and his assistant GM Josh Boyd in Kamagaya, the Fighters farm team facility. They would watch Otani take indoor batting practice and run out in the field besides throw a few baseballs as he was rehabbing his injury, but were not allowed to talk to him.
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Which team would be best suited for him?
While it's easy to talk about location and parts of America with a Japanese presence such as Seattle or Los Angeles being helpful, an American League team would be most beneficial for him if he wants to hit and pitch. It's very well-known that Otani likes hitting and wants that opportunity and with the National League, he'd likely only hit for himself and be an occasional pinch hitter.
Personally, I think the Yankees would fit best considering all the factors of needing a DH and a hitter friendly park, but that's just me.
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Which team do you think will sign Otani?
That guess is as good as anyone's. My personal opinion is that Otani will sign with the team who grants him the right to hit. Many fans and teams see him as a pitcher only, which is fine as it is his proven strength that should carry over to the Major Leagues. However, as mentioned before, Otani likes to hit and the team who gives him the offer of anything he wants will end up signing him.
It's passive to say the Yankees, Red Sox and Rangers are the three main contenders in this. I would not be surprised if Jon Daniels will give him everything from wearing Jersey #11 to being marketed around Texas. Teams will reveal their cards at season's end, but the ride is just beginning as we'll all be on Otani watch this offseason. Fasten your seatbelts and stay tuned folks, because it's going to be a bumpy one.
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