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Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP)

Thursday, January 4, 2018

Two years later: Progress report on the 2015 Lions draft class


The Saitama Seibu Lions drafted their largest class in franchise history since they took 10 players in 1972. Who are they and what have they done since being taken in 2015?

Note: These grades are only penciled in and are more of a progress report. This entire class is too early to evaluate from everywhere and the league. 

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First round: P Shinsaburo Tawata (Fuji University, Iwate)

By taking a pitcher out of Fuji University, it was the third straight year the Lions took someone out of this school following Hotaka Yamakawa and Shuta Tonosaki. Tawata was taken without opposition even though they made an announcement the day before.

Coming off a shoulder injury, Tawata had an awful ichi-gun debut in Sapporo for 2016. However, a strong second half was promising where he pitched a shutout against the same Fighters team and in the same building. A slow start to 2017 saw Tawata pitch with another injury as it made his pitches flat. He had another strong second half including another shutout.

The Lions hope he can pitch more than 100 ichi-gun innings next year and that he can stay healthy. Management has to be happy with his slider and how he is able to miss bats through two years, but he has yet to put it together for a full season. Grade: B+ 

Hindsight: The Orix Buffaloes took Masataka Yoshida, Baystars selected Shota Imanaga 

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Second round: P Seiji Kawagoe (Hokkai Gakuen University, Hokkaido) 

Kawagoe was a two-way player in college and was drafted as a pitcher, despite having potential in the OF too. Unfortunately some injuries have derailed his short career and he hasn't been effective in ni-gun, where he had a 12.46 ERA in 10 games.  Grade: F

Hindsight: The Fighters selected P Takayuki Kato with this pick. Ryota Sekiya was drafted by the Marines.

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Third round: P Shogo Noda, (Seino Unyu, Gifu) 

The Lions went with a shakaijin in the third round and Noda has worked his way up to the ichi-gun early. In his first year, he started to get meaningful innings when the season ended and had low leverage outings in 2017. He had medium leverage innings for parts of 2017, but he's known as a nibbler and could still be a lefty specialist if everything goes right. Grade: B-

Hindsight: The Eagles took Eigoro Mogi. 

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Fourth round: OF Aito Takeda (Hanasaki Tokuharu HS, Saitama) 

The Lions took a HS outfielder from their own backyard in Takeda (formerly Otaki) as he was part of a Summer Koshien team that had a decent run. Takeda earned a few games at the ichi-gun level and was hit by pitch in his first career plate appearance. Despite not registering a hit, the Lions have to like his progression through ni-gun as he could be a future starting outfielder.  Grade: B

Hindsight: The Baystars took C Yasutaka Tobashira with this pick. 

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Fifth round: P Tadasuke Minamikawa (JR Shikoku, Kagawa)

A shakaijin from Shikoku was taken in this round by the Lions, but Minamikawa has done little at the ichi-gun level. He saw a few appearances in low leverage, but hasn't been given a meaningful inning. In 40 ni-gun games last year, he registered a 4.25 ERA in 48.2 innings of work.  He could still be a middle reliever and will be 26 next year.  Grade: C

Hindsight: The Hiroshima Carp selected Ryoma Nishikawa in this round. Koyo Aoyagi was drafted by the Hanshin Tigers. 

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Sixth round: P Keisuke Honda (Tohoku Gakuin University, Miyagi)

Honda is only the second-best known Keisuke Honda in Japan behind the midfielder of the same name. He has mostly been a starter in ni-gun and has remained productive, but has had issues finding time at the ichi-gun level. Honda was given a few spot starts, but has had better success internationally away from Japan.

He was part of the 2016 U23 Baseball World Cup in Mexico, where Samurai Japan won. Honda also dominated the Australian Baseball League in that same year in the five starts he was given. There's still hope he can amount to something, but it's likely others have passed him on the depth chart. Grade: C

Hindsight: None for now. 

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Seventh round: IF Nien Ting Wu (Daichi Kogyo University, Kagoshima)

Wu is originally from Taiwan, but moved to Japan at a young age due to his father being a player in the shakaijin leagues. He attended high school in Okayama prefecture.

With the Lions 2016 season being all but over, Wu started games at SS at the end of 2016 and had quite a few at bats. His time diminished in 2017 due to the emergence of Sosuke Genda, but he is a depth utility infielder and the team is having him play in the outfield so he can remain versatile. Grade: B-

Hindsight: None for now

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Eighth round: P Tsubasa Kokuba (Daichi Kogyo University, Kagoshima) 

Kokuba was a teammate of Wu's and an Okinawa native. He saw a short time at the ichi-gun at the end of 2016, but failed to play a game at the top level in 2017. In ni-gun, he had a 3.80 ERA in 19 games. Time could be running out if others emerge in front of him. Grade: D

Hindsight: None for now

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Ninth round: P Koki Fujita (Hirosaki Kogyo HS, Aomori)

Fujita was the only HS pitcher selected in this class and he spent the 2016 season recovering from an injury. He got his feet wet out of the bullpen for three ni-gun games in 2017, but he is a long term project. Grade: None

Hindsight: Orix took P Ken Akama in this round

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Tenth round: P Naoaki Matsumoto (Kagawa Olive Guyners, Kagawa)

The Lions took a flyer on a pitcher from the Shikoku Island League as Matsumoto turned 25 a month after he was drafted. While having a great underdog story of playing in a hospital league and helping elders to playing well in the Indy League and being drafted, He has done little at the ichi-gun.

He received a call up in late 2016 for a brief appearance in Fukuoka. As a reliever in ni-gun, he threw 50 innings in 34 games with a 6.84 ERA. Time could be running out on Matsumoto as he is 27 years old.  Grade; D-

Hindsight: None for now

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Overall:

This class could be average at best if only a few players work their way to the ichi-gun. Tawata and Noda are the only two players to receive significant playing time through two years. The jury will be out on anyone who was a shakaijin, college, or indy league player and if they don't play with the ichi-gun, they'll be viewed as roster filler or possibly expendable.

Other years:

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2016

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