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Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP)
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Thursday, February 1, 2018
Seibu Lions 2018 Spring Camp Outlook: Outfield
The outfield for the Saitama Seibu Lions had a revolving door in right field in 2015. With multiple infielders moved into the outfield, the starters are all but set for the long run.
Locks:
Shogo Akiyama: Akiyama is coming off a batting champion year in the Pacific League while also having a career high 25 home runs, arguably his peak season compared to 2015 where he had the most hits in a single year. He'll stay in centerfield.
Yuji Kaneko: Kaneko started 2017 with shin splits, but was put into the outfield right away and still stole 25 bases. He went from right field to left field last year and should receive majority of the starts out there.
Shuta Tonosaki: Tonosaki was one of the bigger surprises in 2017 by being one of the players who stayed at the ichi-gun the entire season after being a reserve from 2015-2016. Initially thought to be a replacement player and pinch runner, Tonosaki became a starting right fielder by the season's end and made the most of his opportunity by upgrading the bottom-3 in the batting order. Like Kaneko, his speed is valuable. The Lions can also put Tonosaki on the infield as a defensive replacement.
Takumi Kuriyama: The former captain saw his playing time diminish in the field when he played through an injury and started 2017 as a DH. He'll likely split time with Kaneko in left field, but is still an effective pinch hitter at worst.
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Reserves:
Kazuo Matsui: The long time Lions outfield returns for a presumed final year with the team he started his career with. He'll be serving as a player coach. On the field, there can't be any high expectations for someone who is 42.
Fumikazu Kimura: Kimura received a lot of starting time due to Kaneko's injury last year, but Tsuji and everyone else noticed how poor of a hitter he is. The converted pitcher is a defensive replacement at best, where his arm is more accurate than others.
Shogo Saito: Saito's time has diminished even though he was the fourth outfielder in 2015. He will be on the outside looking to be a reserve, but can't be caught with foolish pinch running mistakes.
Masato Kumashiro: Kumashiro served his purpose in the early parts of his NPB career and is nothing but a former shell of himself. He failed to play an ichi-gun game in 2017 and could be cut after the year if things don't improve.
Ryo Sakata: Sakata can be good on some occasions, but couldn't keep a starting OF spot for a whole season. Like Kuriyama, he's not a bad pinch hitting option.
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The Farm:
Shohei Suzuki: The Lions like what they saw from him in 2017 at the ni-gun level. Manager Hatsuhiko Tsuji will get a closer look at him in ichi-gun camp and he's made good progress as a high school outfielder.
Aito Takeda: Takeda also made good progress in ni-gun until his injury late in the year. He even earned a few ichi-gun at-bats in 2017. Like Suzuki, he's viewed as a future outfielder in the long term.
Daisuke Togawa: Togawa was an ikusei pick of the Lions promoted to the 70-man roster after the 2015 season. He'll be 22 this year and could crack some time at the ichi-gun if he can impress the staff.
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Ikusei:
Wataru Takagi: Takagi is an athlete who has two-way abilities. He's coming off a shoulder injury, but is viewed as fast and quick. His goal will be to earn a 70-man roster spot.
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Overall:
This team is set for a few years in the outfield for the short term. On paper, Takeda and Suzuki will step it up in the long run. It will be interesting to see how many games Matsui plays, but we're expecting him to coach more than play given his age and natural regression. There's plenty of depth options, but not all of them can play.
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Other positions:
Catcher
Infield
Bullpen
Rotation
Manager
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