About: Why the Lions?
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Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP)
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Monday, February 5, 2018
Seibu Lions 2018 Spring Camp Outlook: Rotation
The Saitama Seibu Lions had a 13-game win streak, which was one of the longest in franchise history dating back to its Nishitetsu days in Fukuoka. A big reason for that was the defense and pitching behind them, where the starter in each game went at least five innings without getting lit up.
For 2017, the Lions had adequate pitching, which is all that's needed given how powerful the offense can be. Some new faces have come along since then, but there is competition that will play out.
Locks:
Yusei Kikuchi: The Lions verbally said they would post Kikuchi if he had at least 10 wins in both 2017 and 2018. He's already halfway there and if he repeats a similar season as the team's ace, he's as good as gone to MLB as the team will fulfill their promise.
Ken Togame: Togame began the 2017 season in ni-gun while coming up as the 6th starter in May. He will begin the 2018 season in the rotation, but track record is not on his side. He has not had two consistent seasons and has shown to have a bad year in an even-numbered calendar year, while doing well in an odd-numbered year. Last season, he showed he belongs in the rotation as a middle tier starter. Can he buck his own trend?
Shinsaburo Tawata: Tawata followed up his promising rookie year with a similar performance in 2017, where he started slow and had an injury which hurt his effectiveness. However, his second half was strong just like 2016 and he will look to reach a career high in innings this year hoping to stay healthy and effective at the ichi-gun level all-season long.
Brian Wolfe: Wolfe has been a longtime NPB veteran now entering his eighth year in Japan. He was good for 3/4ths of the season and ate up innings for the most part. Despite falling off to end 2017, the Lions will take the production he got for the year and hope he continues to have gas in the tank. Wolfe isn't getting any younger, but his arm doesn't have the normal mileage for a pitcher his age due to his past injuries. He was relatively healthy in 2017 only missing one projected start before taking him off for majority of September due to the shortened weeks.
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Competition:
Hayato Takagi: Takagi became the player compensation selection by the Lions after the loss of Ryoma Nogami in free agency. He spent most of 2017 as a reliever due to a freak-accident injury from last April. Assuming he's healthy, Takagi is capable of being a starter right away. He's also younger than Nogami and much cheaper while having more years of control.
Kona Takahashi: Takahashi is the ace of the future, but he had a shortened 2017 season due to injury. He will look to crack the rotation hoping to work on his control after struggling in Australia with the Melbourne Aces last winter.
Fabio Castillo: Castillo can throw the heat, but can he throw with control? On paper, he's the hardest throwing Lions rotation candidate, but he can't just fastball his way in Japan. The newest Lions import will get a look at some point, but will he be part of the opening rotation? Time will tell.
Hiromasa Saito: Saito was the team's first round pick last fall and is looking to compete right away. He was the ace out of Meiji University and the team is hoping he can be a starter down the line when Kikuchi leaves. They placed a high priority on a left handed pitcher last draft and ended up with Saito as a plan B after losing out on Daiki Tajima. For 2018, it wouldn't hurt of Saito is a reliever as a lefty specialist to start his NPB career/
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Spot starters:
Yosuke Okamoto: After being on the bubble a year ago, Okamoto took control of a the 6th rotation spot and did a decent job eating up innings. He's a nibbler, but has drawn weak contact and had a better approach in 2017 than before.
Yasuo Sano: Sano is coming off a leg injury and won't be playing until the second half of the season at the earliest. Like Okamoto, he did a decent job getting four or five innings as the back end starter and only left the ichi-gun once he was injured. He could also be another left handed option out of the bullpen if they want to ease him back.
Makoto Aiuchi: Aiuchi has his last name registered to his jersey and now faces a large uphill battle. He's been mostly a spot starter due to his poor location, leading him to be a gas can. He might be better suited as a reliever in the long run.
Keisuke Honda: Honda struggled with location in his few stints at the ichi-gun. Opposing hitters were not fooled and it would lead to walks. Despite tearing it up down under in Australia, his success hasn't translated to the NPB level yet.
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The Farm:
Tatsuya Imai: The first round pick of 2016 spent majority of 2017 injured and the Lions were cautious with him. Assuming he's healthy, expect Imai to get his baptism of fire sooner than later.
UPDATE: Imai has been suspended from playing in games until May for smoking underage. He cannot wear the team uniform in this time. It's likely his debut could be later than we thought.
Kaima Taira: The Lions 4th round pick of 2017 out of Okinawa has a good zip. He'll be working on his control
Sho Ito: Ito was invited to the ichi-gun camp and Hatsuhiko Tsuji will get a first look at the 19-year old out of the independent Shikoku Island League. A third round pick from last fall, Ito has upside for his velocity at a young age.
Yusuke Tamamura: Tamamura has been a regular starter in ni-gun, but has yet to make any impact. Time could be running out if others pass him on the depth chart and he has a better chance at making the bullpen than rotation in the long term.
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Outlook:
The front end of the rotation looks good, the back end remains uncertain. Spot starter depth proved to be decent in 2017, but can it repeat the success from last year? It would help if there is stability in the rotation and both Tawata and Castillo stay at the ichi-gun level.
By taking Takagi, they're hoping he can make an impact right away even though he'll be adjusting to the Pacific League on a regular basis.
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Other positions:
Catcher
Infield
Outfield
Bullpen
Manager
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