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Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP)

Friday, August 31, 2018

2018 NPB Power Rankings: September Edition


The NPB regular season is winding down with a little more than a month remaining. Some teams have pulled away from the pack, while others have hung in there.

Here's how things look as August just concluded:

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1. [^] (2) Hiroshima Carp: 69-44-2; 17-9-1 in August 

The Carp have the Central League pennant all but locked up as we continue to talk about magic numbers, which currently stands at 19. Coming off a road sweep of the Yomiuri Giants all but ends any chance of a comeback or collapse. Only question is, who should be the MVP? Yoshihiro Maru or Seiya Suzuki? They're lighting it all up. It's also good to see Kris Johnson secure a 10-win season after having an injury-riddled one last year.

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2. [v] (1) Saitama Seibu Lions: 68-45-2; 15-10-1 in August

The Lions are still maintaining first place, but there is quite a race behind them. Best thing for them is how the bullpen has turned things around with a shuffle of personnel. Deunte Heath has been great at closer, Shogo Noda and Katsunori Hirai have rebounded, Hiromasa Saito has come in to contribute and even recent import signing Kyle Martin has shown flashes of brilliance.

Starting pitching might be running out of gas, but the offense is already elite. If they can bullpen their way to wins with that offense, lookout.

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3. [^] (10) Fukuoka Softbank Hawks: 61-50-1; 18-6 in August

The Softbank Hawks are back. A nine-game win streak at the end of the month had them as close as five games behind the Lions, making it possible for a shot at their second straight pennant. They still have 7 head-to- head games against the Lions to make some noise.

After some younger players have gone through growing pains, the team as a whole hasn't missed a beat. Kotaro Otake could be the secret pitching weapon while Yurisbel Gracial has had no trouble filling in for an injured Alfredo Despaigne. Yuki Yanagita is still having an MVP-caliber season.

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4. [^] (5) Tokyo Yakult Swallows: 57-56-1; 14-11 in August

The Swallows hang on to A-class with a winning month, something no other Central League team did outside of Hiroshima. As long as he hits .300, Tetsuto Yamada will hit the Triple-3 club for the third time in his career as he just reached 30 stolen bases. Pitching has been up down, but this team has been miles better than last year as they topped their 2017 win total in August. Credit given where it's due as they secured a winning record to end this month.

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5. [v] (4) Yomiuri Giants: 58-62-2; 13-13-1 in August

The Giants remain inconsistent where they can play well on some days and not on others. Hiroshima has been their nemesis and for the second year in a row, they've guaranteed a losing head-to-head record against them. Kazuma Okamoto has done a tremendous job carrying them on offense up to this point.

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6. [v] (3) Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters: 61-52-3; 10-13-2 in August

The Fighters' pennant chances are starting to fade as the Hawks have leaped them in the rankings and standings. They've had a good run, but it's possible that talent is overtaking them when comparing the rest of the league. Bullpen has been extremely leaky while the hitting is very up and down.

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7. [^] (11) Hanshin Tigers: 50-59-1; 11-13 in August

The Hanshin Tigers found a way to leap these rankings by default, given the competition has fallen harder. This team is still poor offensively as first round pick Yusuke Oyama still likes to struggle with runners in scoring position. Starting pitching has prevented this team from falling further, but will it last? They're right on the fringe of A-class, but it's not encouraging to be swept by the Swallows when they should've hit better.

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8. [^] (12) Orix Buffaloes: 53-60-5; 11-13-1 in August

The Orix Buffaloes stopped the bleeding from last month, but it might be too little, too late. Takahiro Okada is back, the pitching is still good, but they're far from A-class. Their starters will play a good spoiler role in September, but is the bullpen out of gas? If anything, at least Masataka Yoshida has been healthy and remains a fun player to watch.

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9. [=] (9) Chunichi Dragons: 53-66-1; 11-15 in August

This team should be in dead last by a mile given their bullpen, but Dayan Viciedo's amazing month prevents further failure. They have to trust the process, but it's hard to wait when the younger players are still growing and going through the struggles.

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10. [v] (6) Chiba Lotte Marines: 52-58-3; 9-14 in August

Nobody picked the Marines to finish in A-class. It appears reality has sunk in since the All-Star break with pitching depth being exposed and injuries to Mike Bolsinger and Ayumu Ishikawa hurting the group. They're getting good production out of Yuki Ariyoshi, but this bullpen has been hard to watch, like the rest of the league.

The question lies, do you just play Kazuya Fukuura so he can get to 2,000 career hits, but hurt the team or do you keep trying for A-class? Fukuura has 1992 career hits right now.

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11. [v] (8) Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles: 47-66-3; 8-15-2 in August

The Eagles avoided the Power Rankings cellar for a second month in a row despite their record. Seven of their 15 losses were by one run, showing that this group is competing and playing well in some aspects. Taking away their 6-16 record against the Lions, they have a combined 35-38-3 record against all four other Pacific League teams. The starting is still competing while Kazuki Tanaka continues to get the production that was initially thought to come from Louis Okoye.

Japhet Amador's ban after getting popped for drugs is a good thing in the long term, as the Eagles need younger players to showcase themselves. What will Kenji Nishimaki do as Eigoro Mogi is out? They should be a decent spoiler like Orix.

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12. [v] (7) Yokohama DeNA Baystars: 51-62-2; 10-15 in August

The Baystars are playing like a last place team despite not being there. Safe to say, this is a huge disappointing season for Alex Ramirez's squad after making the Japan series last year. Starting pitching is being carried by rookie Katsuki Azuma, which not a good thing from a team standpoint.

Offensively, they're too home run dependent with inflated numbers given their ballpark. It's likely they're wasting a year of Toshiro Miyazaki and Yoshitomo Tsutsugo.

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