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Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP)

Friday, September 21, 2018

NPB's Central League remains comical

The Central League Standings at the conclusion of games on September 21 show 1.5 games separate last place from third place.
NPB is a league that is limited to 12 teams, unlike how MLB can have over-saturation with 30. Divide it in half and you get the Central League, where things have become interesting or hard to watch, depending on how you see it.

The Hiroshima Carp have all but clinched this league as early as July, when they pulled away having a lead by double digits in games. Many including yours truly thought there would be competition, but instead, we've seen underachieving and a dose of mediocrity. 

Here's the team-by-team situation I've seen as an outsider who tracks the Pacific League a little closer:

Hiroshima Carp:

The Carp were supposed to win the pennant to many spectators, but the gap was thought to be closer than before. Daichi Osera has lived up to his billing as a first round pick from years ago and has taken the reins as an ace. Kris Johnson had a rebound year while Seiya Suzuki and Yoshihiro Maru are MVP candidates. They're also getting bonus production out of Tsubasa Aizawa, which is pretty crazy for a catcher. Even the role players like Ryoma Nishikawa are solid behind the stars.

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Yakult Swallows: 

The Swallows were expected to be in a rebuild phase with Junji Ogawa returning as the manager and being there to bite the bullet while grooming Shinya Miyamoto, the long term project. This team has a group of veterans playing while there isn't much youth at the ichi-gun. Wladimir Balentien is healthy and Tetsuto Yamada is back in Triple-3 territory after a horrendous 2017.

Surprisingly it was Interleague Play which sparked this team facing new competition and they rose up to the occasion. They faltered after facing Pacific League teams with an eight-game losing streak at one point, but they've stayed on course to be in A-class and have a good chance to finish there for the first time since 2015.

In 2017, everything went wrong for them with injuries and more, but they're on the side of good luck in 2018 with others faltering. Pitching is by no means dominant, but competent enough to compete. It's promising how Juri Hara has been after being a backup option in the draft./I'm also sure Nori Aoki's veteran presence has been an asset to the Swallows lineup.

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Yomiuri Giants

The Giants are streaky, where the bats can magically look good one day and bad the next. They have gotten contributions from some unexpected players like C.C. Mercedes and Kazuma Okamoto, but others like free agent signing Ryoma Nogami and Kazuto Taguchi have underachieved. This team has not put it together for 2018 and should be in B-class.

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Yokohama DeNA Baystars

Yokohama came off a Japan Series appearance and were expected to build off of it. Instead, we have a team that should be in last place, but they're still in the hunt. The Baystars are too home run dependent offensively while on the pitching side, things have gotten worse. Katsuki Azuma has carried the rotation as a first year rookie while other starters have suffered injuries and not being one hundred percent.

Injuries have piled up and missing Jose Lopez for some time hurt, but it can't be an excuse for why the rest of the offense struggles as a whole hitting for average. It isn't a good look for manager Alex Ramirez, who currently has a reputation of having a mediocre team just happen to get hot in October.

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Chunichi Dragons

The Dragons are in Year 2 of a true rebuild under Shigekazu Mori. They're hitting on their foreign signings in Onelki Garcia and Zoilo Almontee while Dayan Viciedo has been solid, but other parts are lacking. Specifically, the bullpen has been dependent on an aging legend Hitoki Iwase in middle relief while the closer position had its shuffles, including throwing a raw Hiroshi Suzuki out there.

They've also gotten good mileage out of veterans Daisuke Matsuzaka and Kazuki Yoshimi, but that won't last in the long term. They're waiting for the younger players to step it up and so far, it's a large question mark. Plenty of "learning moments" with the starter being left in too long or some position players like Shuhei Takahashi getting reps. Can't depend on just imports and veterans as poor drafting/developing in the last several years has put them in this position.

However, it has to be nice there's meaningful baseball in Nagoya for the first time since 2012, their last A-class season. They aren't deserving of it with this team, even though they own the Carp.

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Hanshin Tigers

Where to begin? Starting pitching kept them competitive and prevented any further downfall. Hitting is not there and a lot of this can fall on manager Tomoaki Kanemoto. The bullpen of 2017 was due for some regression and some shuffles were made, but it isn't poor. For majority of the year, Yusuke Oyama had his struggles which have hurt the team, even though he has picked it up in September.

Biggest financial thing to note is import Willin Rosario goes in the books as a disappointment, where the transition from KBO to NPB hasn't worked out. Randy Messenger being hurt doesn't help either.

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At one point, last place was a tie for fourth place as the Tigers, Dragons and Baystars were 1.5 games behind the Giants for A-class and only percentage points separated them. With the third place team likely to finish with a losing record and nowhere close to .500, it is a joke.

However, there is a positive in all of this: Ticket sales should soar with meaningful baseball. September and October are usually the months of makeup games and several teams giving retired players one last go-around for everyone to see. Races can be decided early, but with everyone in the Central still alive, it's crazy.

Flashback to 2004, the Pacific League began a "playoff" system where the top three teams made it in. It wasn't even called the Climax Series and the Central League scoffed at it. However, a decent pennant race involving three teams had people watching around the country and the tickets were being sold.

The Central League had some jealousy and eventually adopted the Climax Series which has been universal since 2007 for both leagues. Not only has the Pacific League been winning on the field since the turn of the 21st Century for majority of the time, but they've helped with progressive ideas.

Everything in the Central League is already tough to watch outside of Japan, while the Pacific League makes it easy. In this case, the Central can thank the Pacific for the Climax Series and its existence as we head down the home stretch of the 2018 NPB Season.

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