The Seattle Mariners signed Yusei Kikuchi through the posting system to ring in 2019 earlier this month. Now the question remains, who's next?
We'll help answer this question and place different categories on each player. The answers remain more complex given the situation, contract and team.
Some play for a team that doesn't post its players and they must reach nine years of service time to be an international free agent. Others are still very young and it would be foolish for the NPB to post him when there are several years of control left. Unfortunately, a few players were considered by are either old or past their prime to really do damage or have value.
I'll also insert some personal opinions on what I think these guys can end up being in MLB in a rational manner. As fun as some guys are in NPB, it may or may not translate over.
Here's what we currently have penciled in:
Wait and see:
There's potential, but also uncertainty. Some guys also have lots of control left in years.
P Shota Imanaga (Yokohama DeNA Baystars): Imanaga came off a down year in 2018, but still has room to grow as he's 25. By the time he would want to be posted, he'd could be in his late 20s or early 30s and become rotation depth for a team in the future, but this is still looking way ahead.
P Daichi Osera (Hiroshima Carp): Osera came off a breakout season after being a hyped first round pick many years ago. He's more than two years away from domestic free agent rights, but it's possible the Carp could post him, but no guarantees what he or the team wants. He's also the same Kikuchi's age and by the time he goes, he'll be likely 29 at the youngest. Could be rotation depth a few years from now.
2B Ryosuke Kikuchi (Carp): This is a complex situation. R. Kikuchi is approaching domestic free agent rights after the 2019 season concludes and the free agency system would be better off for the Carp to walk rather than post him. The starting 2B is known for his elite defense, but he's also approaching 30 and won't get any younger, which means he'll lose a step by the time he steps on an MLB field. He also has to prove he can hit after having an ugly 2018 with his bat.
If the Carp were to post him, they would get almost nothing financially in return because of the market with position players coming from Japan not being in high demand. His bat is also a question mark and on most teams he could be a defensive replacement. The reason he's listed here is because he openly seeks a posting from the Carp. We'll see what happens.
1B Kotaro Kiyomiya (Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters): Kiyomiya was one of the most hyped up high school draft picks, where seven teams tried to go for his rights in 2017. With last year being his first in NPB, he has a long way to go to prove himself, but the talent is there for him to be a slugger down the line. This is a long term project where we won't hear conversation about Kiyomiya for about 6-7 years.
P Katsuki Azuma (Baystars): Azuma came off a strong rookie season and with scouts being in love with left-handed pitchers, he delivered. Only problem? He's 23 and we have no idea what he is. Azuma could be a rotation starter in MLB six to seven years from now if he had interest to be posted, but it's still too early to call.
P Takahiro Norimoto (Tohoku Rakuten Eagles): Norimoto has been the Eagles' ace since Masahiro Tanaka left for the Yankees. For international play, he's been used as a reliever and it's possible MLB scouts like his pitching in spurts, rather than starts. Norimoto himself said he is putting priority on the 2020 Olympics and not MLB, so he isn't interested in posting at the time being. Logically, he could be posted after the 2020 season for 2021, where he'll be 30 by then. He could be rotation or bullpen depth depending on how the scouts see him.
OF Seiya Suzuki (Carp): Suzuki has been a key piece of the Carp outfield and will likely need to carry them with the team recently losing Yoshihiro Maru in free agency. If the Carp lived up to their penny pinching reputation, they could post before he reaches domestic free agency in 2-3 years, but like R. Kikuchi, it wouldn't make sense with the posting fee so small. It will be a matter of if Suzuki him wants to go or not, but he has potential after three seasons of nearly 30 HRs a piece.
OF Seiya Suzuki (Carp): Suzuki has been a key piece of the Carp outfield and will likely need to carry them with the team recently losing Yoshihiro Maru in free agency. If the Carp lived up to their penny pinching reputation, they could post before he reaches domestic free agency in 2-3 years, but like R. Kikuchi, it wouldn't make sense with the posting fee so small. It will be a matter of if Suzuki him wants to go or not, but he has potential after three seasons of nearly 30 HRs a piece.
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Free agents:
These are guys who will be older in age and likely will be past their prime years, but should draw interest once they reach nine years of service team for international free agent rights.
P Kodai Senga (Fukuoka Softbank Hawks): Senga is arguably the most intriguing pitcher in Japan, but playing for the Hawks will hold him back from any chance at MLB in his peak years. He'll be 26 in January, but he won't have international free agent rights until 2023. Assuming he isn't posted, Senga will be 31 by the time he plays his first MLB game in 2024. Senga has asked to be posted in the past, but the Hawks won't budge.
P Tomoyuki Sugano (Yomiuri Giants): Sugano repeated with his second consecutive Sawamura Award and even without it, he was statistically Japan's top pitcher. He can do damage now, but he won't get international free agent rights until after the 2021 or 2022 season at the earliest. He'll be 32 or 33 by the time he plays his first MLB game, but there should be interest.
OF Shogo Akiyama (Saitama Seibu Lions): Usually an aging veteran wouldn't be here, but Akiyama will be an international free agent after the 2019 season and already turned down an extension beyond that. While he didn't make any comments for what happens in 2020. it could be a hint that he wants to take a shot at MLB. A leadoff hitter in Japan, Akiyama is capable of reading pitches and getting on base, but does it translate to the MLB level? As said before, position players would be cheap and he would take less money for an opportunity.
OF Yuki Yanagita (Hawks): Yanagita came off an MVP caliber season in 2018, but his contract will not end until the 2021 season concludes. He'll have international rights for 2022 when he's 32. It's unclear what kind of interest MLB will have, but there's a good chance he would want a chance to play stateside.
P Kazuto Taguchi (Giants): Taguchi turns 24 in September and had a down season for 2018. Given that he's already had more than three years of service time means he has potential down the line, when he'd either be 30 or 31 by the time he reaches international free agency. He has plenty of time on his hands to turn things around and it's possible 2018 was an anomaly.
P Nick Martinez (Fighters): Martinez has a decent first year in Japan and was a front end rotation starter for the Fighters. He signed a one-year deal to return in 2019, but anything can happen after that if he puts in another decent season. He would be 30 in 2020 and the opportunity is there to go back to MLB like Colby Lewis and Miles Mikolas before him.
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Guaranteed to be posted:
OF Yoshitomo Tsutsugo (Baystars): Tsutsugo openly admitted that he wants to play in the majors last November. He has plenty of raw power, even though the numbers are a little inflated given Yokohama's ballpark. If he were to be posted after 2019, he'll be 28 and making the adjustments to MLB will be tricky given the fastballs he would see. Scouts question his athleticism for a large guy playing in the outfield and it's also a concern if MLB teams see him as a 1B or only a power hitting DH.
Is there potential? Yes, but guarantees for position players are always slimmer given how much they need to transition. There's a very good chance the Baystars let him go if he desires it.
2B Tetsuto Yamada (Tokyo Yakult Swallows): Yamada rebounded in 2018 with a Triple-3 season (.300, 30 HR and 30 SB) after a dismal 2017. He turns 27 this year and is the most intriguing position player in Japan, but the later he leaves, the more of a decline we could see in his play. It's unclear if or when the Swallows will post him, but it's likely he wants an opportunity. He doesn't reach domestic free agency until after 2020, but it's possible the Swallows will let him go if he wants to. The power numbers won't translate to MLB, but he can easily hit gappers and is athletic enough to stay in the majors.
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Conclusion:
The Chiba Lotte Marines, Hanshin Tigers, Orix Buffaloes and Chunichi Dragons failed to make this list. That of course doesn't mean anyone isn't talented enough for future considerations, but keeping this list tight is necessary to not give false hope. Some guys are either too old or raw and haven't proven themselves enough. In some cases like Shintaro Fujinami, MLB scouts are likely turned off by his control issues which wouldn't stem well across the Pacific Ocean.
Anyone we might have disagreed with? Let us know.
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Follow us on Twitter @GraveyardBall
OF Yuki Yanagita (Hawks): Yanagita came off an MVP caliber season in 2018, but his contract will not end until the 2021 season concludes. He'll have international rights for 2022 when he's 32. It's unclear what kind of interest MLB will have, but there's a good chance he would want a chance to play stateside.
P Kazuto Taguchi (Giants): Taguchi turns 24 in September and had a down season for 2018. Given that he's already had more than three years of service time means he has potential down the line, when he'd either be 30 or 31 by the time he reaches international free agency. He has plenty of time on his hands to turn things around and it's possible 2018 was an anomaly.
P Nick Martinez (Fighters): Martinez has a decent first year in Japan and was a front end rotation starter for the Fighters. He signed a one-year deal to return in 2019, but anything can happen after that if he puts in another decent season. He would be 30 in 2020 and the opportunity is there to go back to MLB like Colby Lewis and Miles Mikolas before him.
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Guaranteed to be posted:
OF Yoshitomo Tsutsugo (Baystars): Tsutsugo openly admitted that he wants to play in the majors last November. He has plenty of raw power, even though the numbers are a little inflated given Yokohama's ballpark. If he were to be posted after 2019, he'll be 28 and making the adjustments to MLB will be tricky given the fastballs he would see. Scouts question his athleticism for a large guy playing in the outfield and it's also a concern if MLB teams see him as a 1B or only a power hitting DH.
Is there potential? Yes, but guarantees for position players are always slimmer given how much they need to transition. There's a very good chance the Baystars let him go if he desires it.
2B Tetsuto Yamada (Tokyo Yakult Swallows): Yamada rebounded in 2018 with a Triple-3 season (.300, 30 HR and 30 SB) after a dismal 2017. He turns 27 this year and is the most intriguing position player in Japan, but the later he leaves, the more of a decline we could see in his play. It's unclear if or when the Swallows will post him, but it's likely he wants an opportunity. He doesn't reach domestic free agency until after 2020, but it's possible the Swallows will let him go if he wants to. The power numbers won't translate to MLB, but he can easily hit gappers and is athletic enough to stay in the majors.
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Conclusion:
The Chiba Lotte Marines, Hanshin Tigers, Orix Buffaloes and Chunichi Dragons failed to make this list. That of course doesn't mean anyone isn't talented enough for future considerations, but keeping this list tight is necessary to not give false hope. Some guys are either too old or raw and haven't proven themselves enough. In some cases like Shintaro Fujinami, MLB scouts are likely turned off by his control issues which wouldn't stem well across the Pacific Ocean.
Anyone we might have disagreed with? Let us know.
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Follow us on Twitter @GraveyardBall
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