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Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP)

Saturday, August 31, 2019

2019 NPB Power Rankings: September Edition


"First the Worst, Second the Best, Third one wins with the treasure chest".  That was the common quote among any kids under the age of 12 when in a race and in this month's edition of NPB Power Rankings, the first statement lives true.

Disclaimer Note: The Third place line would be altered if anyone wanted to be snarky to being "Third the Nerd with the Ballet Dress" and more. 

With the final month of the regular season in NPB about to begin, it's crunch time for many teams on the bubble, but there is also one pennant race that has some interest. Here is how the Power Rankings look to begin September:

Reminder that power rankings are not reflective of the standings and factor in other things.  

1. [^] (2) Yomiuri Giants: (68-51-2, 15-11-1 in August)

The Giants can put the Central League pennant on cruise control after fighting off a close challenge from both the Baystars and Carp. At one point, only two games separated third place from first place, but the stranglehold they have on the league is likely locked down. Hayato Sakamoto continues a career season while Tomoyuki Sugano has looked better lately. Amazingly, the future Hall of Famer Shinnosuke Abe has been solid as a part time player.

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2. [^] (6) Saitama Seibu Lions: (66-55-1, 17-10 in August)

In a twist of events, the Lions move up to the highest Pacific League spot after being just behind the Softbank Hawks in percentage points. Tomoya Mori and Shuta Tonosaki hit the benchmark and career-highs of at least 20 HRs while this offense can still tear it up.

Starting pitching has been the elephant in the room, but the main bullpen pieces could be established by season's end. Katsunori Hirai's work could come back to bite this team, but the middle relief depth looks better than before. No one saw this Lions team competing for a pennant this late in the year as they put themselves in the conversation.

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3. [^] (4) Fukuoka Softbank Hawks: (64-53-4, 12-12 in August)

Yuki Yanagita has returned, but the pitching has been streaky for the month. Most importantly, the younger players have continued to develop while the veterans still make their mark. Yurisbel Gracial has picked up the slack nicely, but second base has remained a hole. They're still expected to win a pennant, let alone be the top team in the league, but they weren't great in August.

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4. [v] (3) Yokohama DeNA Baystars: (64-57-3, 14-13 in August)

The Baystars looked like they could win the Central League pennant, but the Giants pulled away and they're just preparing for their first stage opponent in the Climax Series. A backbreaking series in Jingu Stadium with blown leads by the bullpen is what holds them back from contending. They're inconsistent when having wins streaks followed by losing streaks. Better hope Haruhiro Hamaguchi's injury isn't serious either.

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5. [^] (10) Orix Buffaloes: (55-59-5, 14-9 in August)

The Orix Buffaloes take advantage of a decent August by being out of the Pacific League basement. This is officially their best season since 2014 and the pitching is there to make noise. Offense is still a glaring hole, but if the defense and pitching do their job, they have a chance to break their A-class drought.

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6. [=] Hiroshima Carp: (62-60-3, 13-14 in August)

Kosuke Tanaka goes down with an injury and for this year, it's a good thing with a raw Kaito Kozono stepping in to take over. Kris Johnson has regained form when the team needs it the most. Offensively the talent is still there to compete even with Xavier Batista being caught for taking an illegal substance.

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T7. [=] Chiba Lotte Marines: (59-61-3, 14-13-1 in August)

The Marines have issues trying to get above .500 once they reach it. Their most encouraging news is Mike Bolsinger and Ayumu Ishikawa rebounding from bad first halves. Even Yuji Nishino has looked like a decent starter, but the bullpen appears to be vulnerable while the offense is home run dependent. Recent signing Leonys Martin could be a keeper for 2020, but if they want A-class, they need to be above .500 somewhere.

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T7. [^] (9) Rakuten Eagles: (60-58-4, 13-12-2 in August)

The Eagles prevent any further bleeding from last month and retain their A-class spot, but the ups and downs of their pitching staff have shown. Takahiro Norimoto is not one hundred percent while the offense is streaky. Their biggest flaw right now is at catcher, where Motohiro Shima has been a shell of his former self and others have stepped in taking his place. They have trouble throwing out runners. It's a tossup whether they finish in A-class or not, but it's a better season than where they were last year.

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9. [v] (8) Hanshin Tigers: (56-60-6, 12-12-1 in August) 

The legendary Takashi Toritani has indirectly been told to retire while the team has gone through the growing pains of a first year skipper. Recent import signing Yangervis Solarte has only been a flash in the pan as it's possible he's the new fall guy for the Tigers front office and media. Offense is not there to be an A-class team while the former first round draft pick Yusuke Oyama leads the team in home runs with just 12. They have relief pitching, but starters are up and down.

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10. [^] (12) Chunichi Dragons: (54-64-2, 11-12-2 in August)

The Dragons failed to make a run and now they're likely to stay in B-class for the 7th straight year. Their bullpen and majority of their pitching staff remains a liability while the offense is average at best. The lack of developed players has forced them to depend on imports with Joely Rodriguez and Enny Romero serving their purpose. It's possible Shuhei Takahashi's injury ended their chance at A-class this year. 

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11. [=] Tokyo Yakult Swallows: (49-73-2, 12-15 in August)

The Swallows can only cling to some individual accomplishments out of Tetsuto Yamada and Munetaka Murakami. Hiroki Yamada has also been a nice steal among the scraps from the offseason, but this team as a whole lacks defense and pitching to do anything. From a managerial standpoint, Junji Ogawa may be ready to pass the reins over to Shinya Miyamoto or someone else that is lined up to be his successor.

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12. [v] (1) Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters: (56-62-5, 5-20 in August)

After looking like a contender through July, the Fighters have fallen flat in August and the month in the basement of the Pacific League. Offense has been the factor as to why this team is ice cold, but it doesn't help when a few short starters get lie up too. Nothing went right for the Fighters, but they're only three games out of A-class. The right winning streak could put them back in, but this stretch of losses will be pointed at by pundits for as to why this team came up short.

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Conclusion:
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The NPB postseason is likely decided on who gets in, but the seeding is still important. Others have done a decent job at playing spoiler on some matchups. In the Pacific League, every team is alive for the final month with plenty of meaningful baseball everywhere. This should be a good finish to the regular season before the Climax Series.

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