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Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP)

Wednesday, January 8, 2020

Akiyama enters a crowded situation in Cincinnati


Shogo Akiyama was officially introduced by the Cincinnati Reds on Wednesday morning in a press conference. In the interview, Akiyama revealed he liked the challenge of being in a new atmosphere while also being the first Japanese-born player in Reds history.

Dick Williams, president of baseball operations for the Reds, revealed they were the first team to make an offer to Akiyama when he was available. Akiyama himself made the trip to San Diego for the winter meetings to talk with several MLB teams face to face, a common working practice in Japan.

This aggressive offer combined with the opportunity made perfect sense for all parties involved. The Reds do not have an established outfield while having a short term need in centerfield. Akiyama will provide a bridge or stop-gap as a short term solution while the Reds can determine which prospects are worth keeping for the long run.

Currently, the Reds have four touted outfielders with two of them as highly touted who are thought to be part of the long-term plans, but Akiyama could put a dent into someone's path. They already designated Nick Martini for assignment to make room for him on the 40-man roster.

Phillip Ervin, 27, was a first-round draft pick by the Reds (27th overall) in 2013 and made his MLB (ichi-gun) debut in 2017. Nick Senzel, 24, was the second overall draft pick in 2016 and saw his first ichi-gun action last year until a torn labrum ended his season.

Aristides Aquino, 25, was a significant international free agent signing out of the Dominican Republic who showed flashes in 2019 and also made his ichi-gun debut in 2018. Lastly, Jesse Winkler, 26, was a compensatory first round pick (49th overall) in 2012 who has also shown promise but had injuries.

On paper, the addition of Akiyama gives uncertainty on who will play everyday. They can platoon easily with Akiyama having extreme splits against right-handed pitching and he himself said he is fine with any position that the Reds need him.

In his press conference, Akiyama admitted he isn't a power hitter, but focuses on getting on base and hitting for average to help the team, something he did in 2015 where he set a single-season NPB record for hits (216) and nearly reached a record hitting streak in consecutive games. He said his always inspired to be like Ichiro Suzuki.

Nothing will be guaranteed until he steps on the field. as ZiPS projects. Great American Ballpark is hitter-friendly and it's possible he could have more power if the wind goes his way. Defensively, his range will likely decline given his age and how he won't be the same like with the Saitama Seibu Lions.

In a best-case scenario, Akiyama becomes an everyday starting outfielder. On the flip side, he could be a situational hitter if others leap him on the depth chart, but he will be a bridge to the future outfielders who are already on the team.

With the Reds already having the aforementioned distinction of no Japanese-born player in their history, we learned about their full approach when trying to sign Shohei Ohtani in 2017. Even with the underdog odds, their aggressive tactics from back then paid off two years later for Akiyama.

Normally, the Reds are a small market team who has had their share of struggles in a division containing the St. Louis Cardinals, Chicago Cubs and an upstart Milwaukee Brewers group. They don't sign high-profile free agents, which led to Akiyama's signing being a welcome addition for fans, the front office and the media. They gave his signing a larger play, compared to how the Toronto Blue Jays made a minimal announcement for Shun Yamaguchi.

Earlier this offseason, they signed Wade Miley and Mike Moustakas when they're in a transition on wanting to contend. Last year, they traded prospects in hopes to win in 2019, only to come up short as a fourth place team. Team success could very well hinge on Akiyama's production if it can get them to compete in a tough division.

If anything, the Japanese community in Cincinnati has already welcomed him and there could be a boost in some tourism to south Ohio. Good luck, Shogo.

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