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There is always one dark day in the sports world. Unfortunately, entering the second half of any baseball season means the time will be ticking on certain players with their respective teams. While some will reach free agency, others will be let go and not offered a contract for the following season, better known in Japanese as senryokugai.
This year's NPB trade deadline is on September 30 and while the trades and transactions are minor, every team needs to start thinking ahead at who could be gone soon. The NPB Draft takes place in October while the regular season is still ongoing, but it's usually a hint at when senryokugai lists are announced for each team in order to make room for the new players taken.
Putting yourself in the General Manager's shoes, some players need to show life or their careers in NPB could be over. In North America on this kind of day, players are always reminded and even telling the media "it's a business" when they're sent packing via trade, cut or being released.
As with usual in NPB, trades mostly happen because teams don't know what to do with the player they have, hoping to acquire cheap depth or find a change of scenery for the individual. They're often expendable.
For those reading in Japan, this is not a hit piece for any players who may not have been good, but it's a warning to project who could be gone from the Lions after the 2020 season concludes. We have also provided an update for all foreigners under contact, which is always a year-by-year case. Ikusei players will not be listed here.
Here are the players who could be sent away by trade or senryokugai:
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Shunta Nakatsuka: Once a second-round draft pick in 2016, he was thought to have major upside with his velocity and size for a pitcher. He had control problems and it still lingers today. The upside is likely gone as he turns 26 this December. He'll be remembered as someone who had potential and showed it with the Melbourne Aces in Australia through strikeouts, but can't crack the ichi-gun due to the number of walks. Recently, he was called up this week for the first time in two years. Could they be showcasing him? It's an uncertain future.
Shota Takekuma: A veteran who has been with the Lions since 2007, he fell out of favor in 2018 and has mostly been a spot starter or mop up pitcher since. Takekuma was a solid left-handed option out of the bullpen in the past and even earned setup innings, but it's unlikely he'll ever return to form as he sits off the ichi-gun roster today. He was last seen taking low leverage innings.
Makoto Aiuchi: Aiuchi was recently banned by the team for violating COVID-19 rules. However, Aiuchi has been a repeat offender for multiple infractions with the law in the past from driving without a license to smoking underage. He saw a total of 21 ichi-gun games from 2014, 2016-2019 where it has mostly been spot starts. While he nearly got a win in one outing, he's now 26 and others have leapt him on the depth chart.
Koki Fujita: His career started out slow due to an injury and skipping the entire 2016 season as a result. A 9th round draft pick in 2015, he has only seen ni-gun games and has played four of them in 2020. He turns 23 in December, but it isn't unheard of to part ways to someone that age, as Isamu Sato was there previously.
Tsubasa Kokuba: Kokuba played 15 ichi-gun games and stayed on the roster to finish 2019. However, he couldn't build on that momentum in 2020 and has a 9.90 ERA in only 10 ni-gun innings. With other relievers beating him in competition, he could be on the outside as he turns 27 this December.
Shogo Noda: Noda had meaningful innings in the Norio Tanabe era and was thought to be a lefty specialist. His ichi-gun time has dwindled since 2019, where he only reached 19.2 innings and is on pace to see fewer in 2020. In one of his games this year, he allowed inherited runners to score all while failing to be a threat. Currently 27, there is likely better left-handed options.
Daisuke Matsuzaka (Retirement): After being let go by the Chunichi Dragons, Daisuke Matsuzaka signed with the Lions this past winter hoping for one more ride. He just turned 40 this past month and has been injured, something that hurt his career since being with the Boston Red Sox. He'll be hoping for one retirement ceremony game in October or November as a farewell to baseball. It's unlikely he's nothing more than a spot starter for the Lions if healthy.
Hitoto Komazuki: Komazuki was a converted outfielder who switched to catcher starting in 2017. He spent majority of the 2019 season as the emergency third catcher due to his lack of hitting. Last year, recorded his first and only career base hit to date, but has spent the 2020 season in ni-gun. With Sena Tsuge emerging as a better option and Daichi Nakaguma possibly getting promoted from ikusei, there's a chance Komazuki is the odd man out being the second oldest on the roster.
Yuto Morikoshi: The former Chunichi Dragon and Hanshin Tiger was signed by the Lions this winter and it's likely Hatsuhiko Tsuji remembered him from his time in Nagoya. Thought to be a defensive substitute, but he has failed to crack the ichi-gun all season, which isn't a good sign for someone who is 32. Nien Ting Wu, Masato Kumashiro, Kakeru Yamanobe and Daichi Mizuguchi have received more playing time as depth options. He's older than all of them.
Kyohei Nagae: Arguably one of the best defensive players on the Lions, his role diminished the moment Sosuke Genda was drafted. His inability to his has cost him any chance at ichi-gun playing time as he's only useful as a replacement player. Like Morikoshi, others have been playing on the infield in front of him on the depth chart. Nagae is 27 years old and was drafted by the Lions out of high school in 2011.
"Aito" Takeda: Once drafted out of Hanasaki Tokuharu high school, Aito has failed to play an ichi-gun game in 2020 with Wataru Takagi, Seiji Kawagoe and Shohei Suzuki all passing him on the depth chart. It's possible he's fallen out of favor after playing 42 games in 2019.
Daichi Mizuguchi: Mizuguchi was the first ikusei player in Lions history to play in an ichi-gun game. While he's currently on the ichi-gun at the time of this writing, he's just a defensive substitute and pinch runner for depth. Yamanobe is a younger option and depending on how the draft goes, the Lions could find another infielder to take his spot. He's on the bubble given he turned 31 this year.
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Free Agents:
Tatsushi Masuda: Masuda has been the closer of thee Lions having a stable role from 2019-2020 after an off 2018. Instead of taking the multi-year option, he signed a one-year deal in the offseason, earning domestic free agent rights. It's likely he wants to test the market and see what he's worth no matter what the Lions offer in negotiations. There's a good chance he'll get a multi-year offer before he exercises his domestic free agent option, but it won't matter. He wants to see a bidding war and given the track record of the Lions valuing pitchers, his chances of staying don't look good. There will be compensation for the Lions if they lose him in free agency.
Masato Kumashiro: Kumashiro earned domestic free agent rights earlier this year and has mostly been a reserve outfielder since 2014. He's versatile enough to be a defensive substitute and spell player, but can't be starting on a regular basis. There's no idea if Kumashiro wants to leave or not, but it's not like he'll get offers the way Masuda will. Regardless, the Lions will be in good shape with or without him in the event he exercises his domestic FA option.
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Foreigners:
Stats are reflective of 2020 ichi-gun numbers through September 21
Zach Neal (3-6), 5.18 ERA: Neal is under contract through the 2021 season after he signed a two-year deal right before he left Japan in 2019. He doesn't need to worry about this situation for another year.
Cory Spangenberg .283/.332/.527, 11 HR: Spangenberg was humbled through July and adjusted well since the beginning of August. His biggest concern was the walk rate, but his OBP has gone above .330, making it very likely he's on pace to earn another contract in Japan. It doesn't hurt he's had multiple hero interviews and his defense at 3B has been solid when the Lions lost Takeya Nakamura to injury.
Reed Garrett (3-2), 3.69 ERA, 16 HLD: Garrett had an invincible first month and looked unstoppable in July. However, August was the beginning of his demise where his pitches became flat and he wasn't missing bats. While he can throw 100 mph, it's a cautionary tale that control and command are also important as opposing hitters have begun fouling off anything fast he's thrown. As a result, he's been playing pinball on the mound and became a pitch to contact player.
Garrett lost his setup role on September 5 when he was already struggling to allow at least one or two batters on base per game. In that outing during a tie game scenario, he loaded the bases and gave up a three-run triple to Haruki Nishikawa to lose the game. Garrett has been in mop up duty since and if the season ended today, he would likely not return for 2021.
Ernesto Mejia .248/.310/.530, 9 HR: Mejia began the year in ni-gun and was offered a team-friendly contract to stay around for 2020. Spending 2019 as a true bench player, his 2020 has already featured more home runs, starts and at-bats than last year.
Recently, he's been playing first base with Hotaka Yamakawa not healthy and for what his salary is, Mejia has been worth every yen. It's possible Mejia was brought back for being a great locker room guy with his relationship being fine with everyone around. It's possible he'll be a Lion for life and could be working for the organization when his playing days are over.
Sean Nolin (1-2), 7.08 ERA: Nolin didn't play an ichi-gun game until nearly the halfway mark to the 2020 season. He won his debut in Sendai with a good start and followed it up with another decent outing in Sapporo. However, his last two games have been forgettable. For now, Nolin is on the fence depending on what happens. It's a classic wait and see approach.
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Outlook:
There's currently 67 players under contract on the 70-man roster with five others being ikusei. With the 2020 NPB Draft happening in October, which occurs during the regular season, teams could be making senryokugai announcements shortly after it. Usually the final week of the regular season is the beginning of this dreaded news. Expect at least five domestic players being let go with possibly more depending on the draft.
In terms of trades, it's also unlikely, though the Rakuten Eagles just acquired D.J. Johnson for a cash purchased from the Hiroshima Carp.
If I'm the Lions, I would call Eagles GM Kazuhisa Ishii and try to offer someone on this list in exchange for Louis Okoye. Since taking over at GM, Ishii has shown no attachment to inherited players by making the roster his own. From picking up Ren Wada, Yuya Fukui, Stefen Romero, Daichi Suzuki, Hideto Asamura while also and sending away Zelous Wheeler and Yuhei Takanashi, they've made plenty of transactions.
Okoye is only 23 and has played zero ichi-gun games in 2020, leeading to believe his chances of making an impact in Sendai are all but done. Others are ahead of him on the depth chart and Ishii has no attachment to Okoye since he didn't draft him. With Okoye's ties to Saitama prefecture and possible depth needs in the outfield, there's a chance he can benefit from a change of scenery while the Lions can market his connection to the area.
Don't expect any trade to happen, but be ready for a few senryokugai announcements next month.
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