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Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP)

Thursday, March 25, 2021

First team 2021 Opening Day Seibu Lions roster announced

 


The Saitama Seibu Lions announced their Opening Day roster, on the eve of the 2021 NPB season begins. This year, 29 players are allowed on the ichi-gun roster with 25 of them permitted to play in a single game. 

Here is how the 29-man opening day roster stacks out for the Lions in their first series against the Orix Buffaloes:

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Pitchers (12): 

Kona Takahashi: The Opening Day starter has high expectations coming into 2021. With a solid second half of 2020, they're hoping he can continue his form into this year. 

Tatsushi Masuda: The Lions closer returns on a new contract and prevents any losses in free agency over the offseason. Should remain the closer until told otherwise. 

Tetsu Miyagawa: A possible hybrid, the 2019 first round draft pick can likely go into the rotation if necessary or help in relief. This year, the team hopes he can transition as a starter. 

Syota Hamaya: Another second year player from the 2019 draft class hoping to stay at the ichi-gun level. Saw a handful of starts and relief appearances in 2020 and likely gets games in the rotation. 

Katsunori Hirai: Once a setup man, Hirai transitioned as a spot starter and likely begins this season in the rotation. 

Reed Garrett: The only foreigner able to join the team in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, Garrett should be a setup man. However, his 2020 was summed up by a strong first half followed by a rough second half of the season. 

Yasuo Sano: Once a spot starter, Sano can still have this role. He'll likely take the medium and low leverage innings hoping to work his way up. 

Sho Ito: Ito should be the low leverage/mop up duty pitcher. Can he stay at the ichi-gun and keep his roster spot? 

Ichiro Tamura: Tamura has spent nearly his entire career taking the low leverage innings. He reached a career-high of 41 IP last season as a result of the team trailing. Maybe he can get his first career win? 

Hiroki Inoue: Another draft pick from 2019 on the ichi-gun roster. Inoue came out of high school and only saw three innings in ni-gun last year. Should make his debut in a low leverage situation. A hard thrower, he hopes to work his way into the setup role. 

Mitsuo Yoshikawa: The former Fighters pitcher was the only domestic free agent signing by the Lions. As a lefty, he hopes to shore up the depth in an area the Lions were lacking. Can he stay in the rotation?

Kaima Taira: Taira came off a great 2020 as the team's setup man. Crazy how he turns 22 this November, but can he repeat last year's success? 

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Catchers (3): 

Tomoya Mori: Coming off a disappointing 2020, Mori hopes to hit well again and should be the starting catcher. 

Masatoshi Okada: A backup catcher, Okada can also serve as the pinch bunter if needed. If he stays at the ichi-gun for more than half of the season, he'll have domestic free agent rights. 

Sena Tsuge: Tsuge saw a handful of starts and showed promise with his bat. Could be a serviceable option in emergency. 

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Infielders (7):

Hotaka Yamakawa: Yamakawa had an injury prone 2020 and it affected his ability to hit. It was a forgettable season forcing him to take a paycut. He's hoping to bounce back in 2021. 

Shuta Tonosaki: Tonosaki's power and average took a major dip in 2020. He still provides speed on the bases and should be starting at 2B. 

Sosuke Genda: The Lions starting SS remained pretty consistent with his bat. A silent captain who can field pretty well. 

Kakeru Yamanobe: This is likely a make or break season for Yamanobe if he can't find ichi-gun starts. At 27 years old, his upside and ceiling is about to cave in. A shakaijin draft pick from 2018, he has speed on paper, but can his bat take him into the lineup? 

Haruka Yamada: Yamada is a defensive replacement who lacks hitting. Known for his celebration antics, he's a wild one in the clubhouse. 

"Brandon" Taiga Tysinger: The Okinawan is one of two 2020 draft picks to make the opening day roster. He'll likely be slotted in at 3B and share time with others if he doesn't hit his weight. 

Takeya Nakamura: The legendary Lions home run king is in the twilight of his career. Should be a part time DH and 3B. Does he have much in the tank left?  

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Outfielders (7): 

Takumi Kuriyama: The other main veteran born in the Showa period is hoping to crack the 2,000 hits mark for his career. He needs 74 to reach that milestone. 

Yuji Kaneko: Coming off a bad season with a lack of stolen bases, Kaneko hasn't rewarded the Lions since signing his extension. Not the best leadoff hitter when getting on base isn't his specialty, but he will be the starting CF. 

Fumikazu Kimura: Usually RF for his defense, he may be better as a replacement player instead of every day starter. Like Okada, he is also on pace to reach domestic free agent rights. 

Gakuto Wakabayashi: The other 2020 draft pick making the opening day roster is the Lions fourth round draft pick. He'll get some starts with the outfield having openings. 

Shohei Suzuki: He got his first significant amount of starts last year, but couldn't keep his job by the second half. Thought to be a centerfielder long term, he'll need to hit better in order to stay on top. 

Manaya Nishikawa: The Lions gave him a taste of ichi-gun action for evaluation. If he can hit, he'll win himself a job. Likely there as depth. 

Junichiro Kishi: Kishi saw a handful of games and even a start. Looking to get his first base hit, he'll definitely get reps as a replacement player and pinch runner. 

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With Zach Neal, Matt Dermody, Cory Spangenberg and Ernesto Mejia all unable to come to Japan on time, it's unlikely they'll be seen until late April and it's possible they don't play until May when ready to go. This is an opportunity for some younger Lions players to get reps from Brandon to Hamaya. Some imports are guaranteed to take an ichi-gun role once they're able to play and in condition. 

Eventually, some of these players will be deactivated soon for the next series as only three starters are guaranteed on this first roster. 

Here's a few quick thoughts on the Pacific League opponents for 2020: 

Softbank Hawks: They remain contenders as the four-time defending Japan Series champions. Even with some veterans getting older, they have plenty of youth to be come the next men up. Expected to be in first. 

Chiba Lotte Marines: Which team is this? Tadahito Iguchi should be on the hot seat if they can't deliver a definitive A-class season. Last year was a first half success, followed a COVID outbreak thanks to Ikuhiro Kiyota, which led to a second half collapse. Fortunately for them, no challenger in the Pacific League emerged. This is a season where they need a breakout from some of their recent draft picks like Hisanori Yasuda. Otherwise, it's all hype. 

Rakuten Eagles: With the return of Masahiro Tanaka and a top draft pick Takahisa Hayakawa able to make instant impact on paper, the Eagles are thought to be an A-class shoo-in from their rotation alone. However, their offense and bullpen are question marks and the biggest issue is Kazuhisa Ishii making himself the manager after already being the GM in signing players. Is there much player development happening with lots of veterans added in the last few years? With 2021 being the 10-year anniversary of the Tohoku earthquake and tsunami, the hype and sense of optimism is real. 

Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters: For a group who lost Kohei Arihara to the Texas Rangers, there is no proven ace nor many star bats in their lineups. Sho Nakata and Taishi Ota can only do so much. There are some slap hitters, but can anyone hit for pop or is it all small ball? This roster isn't attractive on what looks like another rebuilding year. If Kotaro Kiyomiya can show some promise, then there's hope. 

Orix Buffaloes: Orix has a starting pitching staff that can hang with anyone. Their problem is a lack of offense being dependent on Masataka Yoshida. Otherwise, their worst enemy is themselves when making mistakes in the field or with pitching, base running and even at bats. Satoshi Nakajima took over midseason and the reduced their errors, but can the offense be marginal? The pitching staff on paper can carry them to A-class. They just need confidence. Last year, the Buffaloes were the difference between second and third place for Lions as they struggled against this team. On the flip side, the Marines were able to get early and take advantage of some blunder mistakes.  

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Outlook:

Who knows what this Lions team can be? It has the mix of a rebuild while also still competed with talent on offense who struggled last year. They need a proven ace and a breakout year from a starting pitcher. There's a case for both third and fourth place being right on the bubble for A-class/B-class. 

If things go right, the bullpen stays to form while the offense and starting pitching take a step forward. Injuries and constant failure stemming from last year is guaranteed a B-class season and under .500. Last year, it was the bullpen who bailed them out and it's unlikely they can repeat 2020's dominance. 

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I also wanted to take this time to apologize for a lack of activity and no primers in the offseason. Some odd work schedule adjustments due to COVID and a shorter offseason made it difficult. Even with time off, it was used to travel in the short windows I had. 

Not all games will be tweeted and watched live, but there will be some activity and updates as time goes on. 

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