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Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP)

Tuesday, July 26, 2022

NPB trade deadline 2022: Candidates to trade

 


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The 2022 NPB season passed the halfway mark in July and with the All Star break here, it's a time to brace for one of the harder days in professional sports.

When the regular season is in it's final weeks, teams around the league will need to announce their players not returning for the next year with no contract offer coming or as they say, senryokugai (戦力外) in Japanese. 

Looking at the Lions situation, most of this team became younger with only a handful of veterans remaining. Others have become draft busts or not finding a way to the ichi-gun roster.

For this list, we will not mention ikusei players or those who could retire.

Statistically, well mention the ichi-gun slashline of AVG/OBP/SLG.

Here are the candidates the Lions could be parting ways with at the deadline or the end of the year:

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IF Kakeru Yamanobe: .152/.200.242 in 29 games

Yamanobe was drafted in 2018 as an insurance for the loss of Hideous Asamura in free agency, but the shakaijin has not been able to keep an ichi-gun job for the whole year. Initially viewed as a good defensive player who is fast, his hat has never been good enough to earn a starting role.

He's been deactivated off the roster for more than a month in favor of younger players and his time could be running out.

P Ichiro Tamura: (0-0), 6.00 in 3 games

Tamura took mop-up duty for most of his tenure since his rookie year in 2017. In 2021, he started to earn more meaningful inning and even recorded both a win and save for the first time in his career. He was called up recently due to the roster having COVID, but didn't seen action before July. 

P Ken Togame: (0-0), 2.40 ERA in 12 games

Togame was give a three-year contract after the 2019 season, but his value has decreased over the years. Relegated to the bullpen in 2021, Togame has seen an even smaller workload in 2022 and is currently off the ichi-gun roster. As he'll be a free agent after this season, there may not be a reason to bring him back. 

P Shota Takekuma: 0 games in 2022

Takekuma used to be a left-handed specialist who would get 7th inning appearances, but his role is completely gone in 2022 with no ichi-gun appearances and only two Ni-gun outings. Last season, he had plenty of games on a struggling Lions bullpen unit, but it doesn't appear this will happen again. He's simply older with no upside. 

P Kouki Matsuoka: 0 games in 2022

Matsuoka was an Independent league draft pick who made a handful of ichi-gun appearances in 2020 and 2021, but he hasn't done enough in Ni-gun to impress the coaching staff. He will be 22 in August, but he may need a change of scenery. Cutting someone under the age of 24 isn't unheard of and he could be on the chopping block at season's end. 

P Yasuo Sano: (0-0), 0.00 ERA in 2 games

Sano has seen his ichi-gun time decrease significantly this year and he took a share of mop up duties in 2021. He's considered part of the older group of pitchers now that he will turn 30 in January. 

OF Daisuke Togawa: .000/.143/.000 in 6 games

Togawa has never seen more than 10 ichi-gun game in a season. An ikusei draft pick in 2014, he earned a promotion after the 2015 season, but unable to stay at the ichi-gun level. He's one of the oldest outfielders on the roster while making a minimal impact. 

OF Masato Kumashiro: .250/.250./.250 in 29 games

Kumashiro has been the Lions replacement player for a late game scenario, but he's not getting any younger. Useful for defense, he's only a substitute. Age would be the reason to let him go if they feel there are cheaper options. 

P Shota Hamaya: 0 games in 2022

Hamaya was a spot starter and reliever, but hasn't seen much action in both ni-gun and ichi-gun. Mostly a starter in ni-gun, the Lions could find him expendable. 

IF Shuta Tonosaki (Free Agent): .218/.294/.342 in 92 games

Tonosaki reached domestic free agency this season and will have to make his decision on exercising his option to test the market or not. As a Lions fan, free agency is usually stressful given the track record.  If there's any leverage, he hasn't hit the best in recent years. 

Based on top 10 in domestic payroll, Tonosaki would be a Type B free agent. 

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Foreign players

Imports usually come and go in NPB and the Lions had a significant turnover for the first time in almost seven years with five new signings and everyone previously departed from 2021.

It's a time to look back and see who is in good standing. 

Brian O'Grady: .228/.329/.431 in 79 games

O'Grady was mostly given a starting OF opportunity since he joined the Lions aside from a break where he flew back to the States to see his newborn daughter, the last week could be concerning with fewer starts.

He was hitting as high as 2nd in the order, but recently dropped as low to 8th. 

Much of his production in doubles came from April and May, arguably could have more home runs if it weren't for some high walls as he attributed on his podcast. 

If the season ended today, it would be doubtful the Lions bring him back based on production since June. For now, "Aito", Seiji Kawagoe and Shohei Suzuki have been the hot hands for the OF. He should get another opportunity soon when someone falls, but time is short to make that lasting impression. 

Recently he openly complained about the strike zone in Japan and his former Padres teammate Yu Darvish endorsed it. Japanese culture doesn't exactly welcome outspoken opinions, but it shouldn't affect what the Lions decide. 

Jantzen Witte: .204/.228/.296 in 31 games

Things were looking bleak for Witte when he first started and went down to bi-gun with an injury. However, he's looked better in the last four weeks since being at the ichi-gun pushing his average above the Mendoza Line and has batted as high as 5th in the lineup.

If he continues strong form through the second half, the Lions would give an offer for 2023.  

Bo Takahashi: (0-0), 1.46 ERA in 21 games

Takahashi has been given low to medium leverage innings out of the bullpen throughout the year. He started slow, but has mostly been reliable in his limited. 

The Lions decision to bring him back or not won't be based on numbers, but the potential they see in his pitching given he has age on his side given he's 25, only a few weeks older than Kona Takahashi. 

Dietrich Enns: (6-5), 2.31 ERA in 14 games

Enns has been a great import signing for the Lions keeping them in A-class with reliable outings of 5-6 inning.  He's displayed good control and done his part. There's a good chance he'll receive an offer from the Lions at season's end. 

Burch Smith: (1-0), 2.45 ERA in 4 games

Smith threw seven no-hit innings in his debut and has a second quality's start, but injuries have kept him off the field. Right arm discomfort took him out for two months. Recently he has COVID from the team having a significant outbreak. 

With a lack of games, he becomes the largest mystery of the bunch. Sean Nolin also had injury issues before him. It's uncertain what happens unless he's playing games. 

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The time is ticking and possibly running out for many players as the season has only 50 games remaining. Senryokugai listings become one of the hardest days in NPB as players pro careers come to an end, a handful could be picked up elsewhere at a tryout. 

For the imports, they need to make that last impression to get noticed by their own club or even MLB rather than being forced to come back on a minor league deal. Time will tell for all. 

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