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Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP)

Tuesday, December 20, 2022

Yoshida enters Boston with unreal expectations

 


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The Boston Red Sox officially signed Masataka Yoshida to a five-year contract last week for $90 million. He was introduced in public on Thursday in a press conference. 

He had a humble introduction and even spoke his opening statement in English. There were of blanket lip service statements by both the Red Sox and Yoshida's agent Scott Boras. 

"We've watched Masataka for a while," said Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom. "For us, the thing that really stood out from all angles, from the scouting angle, from breaking down the performance, is just the quality of the at-bat. There's a very unique combination of contact skills and strike-zone discipline, and an ability to impact baseball that we feel has a chance to really impact the game at the Major League Level."

Despite all the positive accolades Yoshida had with the Orix Buffaloes, there's more concern than confidence for those in New England. 

The Boston Red Sox have had a disastrous off-season when hoping to retain star SS Xander Bogaerts, only to lose him in free agency to the San Diego Padres. 

Previously, they traded former MVP Mookie Betts to the Los Angeles Dodgers with the feeling he would not be re-signed, acting like a small market team. Notably, the Red Sox just designated Jeter Downs, one of the key pieces in that trade, for assignment just to make room for Yoshida on the roster. 

They signed pitchers Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin to help the bullpen, yet the Red Sox still look like an organization playing second fiddle or even third fiddle to the rest of their division. 

Boston has also dumped dead weight in Eric Hosmer. J.D. Martinez has an agreement with the Los Angeles Dodgers pending a physical while Rafael Devers is the only significant player remaining from the 2018 World Series championship winning team. 

Last season, the Red Sox finished in dead last of the AL East division. If one were to sum up their 2022 in a nutshell, it was being blown out by the Toronto Blue Jays in a 28-5 loss, where an inside-the-park grand slam from Raimel Tapia put an exclamation point on the embarrassment.  

Boston was hoping to retain Bogaerts and possibly make an additional splash with the free agents available. Now that Carlos Correa, Dansby Swanson and Aaron Judge all signed with other teams while Bogaerts joined San Diego, both fans and the front office have felt a sense of shock while signing Yoshida feels like desperation for what they don't have or didn't spend. 

Up to the time of this writing, Yoshida is the largest fiscal free agent signing in this offseason by the Red Sox. 

The Red Sox don't believe in rebuilding, yet they've lost out on all the main targets everyone expected them to be in the discussion for. They still have Trevor Story who was a big signing last offseason, but health is a major concern for him going forward. 

Yoshida's long swing and defense are the biggest concerns for his MLB career. It's unsure how it translates against a fastball that isn't seen as much in Japan. 

His range is not as great and it would be best suited if he takes left field, moving Alex Verdugo to right field so he has less space to work with at the Green Monster. Yoshida already compared the Green Monster wall similar to the now-unused Sapporo Dome. 

The amount Yoshida was signed for was a shocker as he admitted it in his press conference. Boras said there were plenty of offers, indicating it quite the bidding war for his services. Yoshida took Boston's offer less than 24 hours after his posting window started. 

"I was very surprised by this deal,” Yoshida said with the help of his interpreter. “I want to say thank you to Scott Boras and the Boras Corporation, and thank you to the organization for accepting me. Obviously, I’m going to play hard next season.”

Boras is great for getting his clients what they want whether it's mostly money, or in Yusei Kikuchi's case, flexibility when he signed with Seattle. What makes this even more crazy, Yoshida is less accomplished statistically than Seiya Suzuki was before joining the Chicago Cubs, yet he will make $5 million more when his contract is up. 

It's easy to root for the guy to have success. However, Boston is large media market that he has never experienced. With the Orix Buffaloes, he could be anonymous and not have the spotlight aside from two Japan Series trips. 

Playing for a few East Coast markets comes with a territory of high praise when great, but even larger scrutiny when failure occurs. It's much like playing for the Hanshin Tigers where the media will nitpick everything they see, nothing can be hidden. 

While the Rex Sox have had success with Japanese players of the past in Koji Uehara, Junichi Tazawa and Hideaki Okajima, most historians would say Daisuke Matsuzaka was a disappointment. Even though he won that 2007 Japan Series and even has an RBI hit to show off his batting skills, the injuries and condition didn't make it worth his contact as that team was already loaded. 

Boston fans are like animals being hungry for success. Any shortcomings and the rage gets amplified.  Patience won't come easy and with his contract already having five years, they expect the best as soon as possible.

Even at age 29, he doesn't exactly have upside and will need to be an impact sooner than later. Can he succeed? Sure. However, with the state of the team and the questions of Yoshida's abilities, there's no guarantee he'll be successful being in this market.

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