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Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP)

Sunday, January 28, 2024

Matsui's wait to MLB is rewarded

 


Yuki Matsui took the long way to MLB. 

Instead of early domination and a posting, he had to wait for nine years of service time to reach international free agent rights. It's the same path Kodai Senga was forced to reach given he was on a team that never posted a player.

Matsui, 28, wanted to play in MLB several years ago with hopes of being posted, but he didn't let the waiting time hamper him. He said he needed to improve his skills to be ready for the jump across the Pacific Ocean. 

"It wasn't really much of a wait for me to come here, Matsui said through interpreter Shinjo in a video press conference. "I mentioned [to the team] that in wanted to pitch [in MLB] back in 2019, but I really had to get ready and I had to hone my draft in order to be a player to be wanted by these big league teams. Throughout these years, I was working on my craft and building my body. It wasn't a long wait for me as I was just focusing on baseball everyday."

He officially signed with the San Diego Padres in December, being one of four Japanese players making the switch from NPB to MLB.

What helped the process in picking the Padres? None other than having Samurai Japan teammate Yu Darvish being there.

"Darvish is a pretty big presence for me," Matsui said  "It will be a big plus being able to play baseball [with him] and live close to him."

His contract with the Padres is rather fair for the market as a relief pitcher. 

On the surface, it's five years for the cost of $28 million. However, there are plenty of incentives and even an opt out and team option available.

If Matsui does not have Tommy John or an elbow injury that causes more than 130 consecutive days on the injured list from 2024-2025, he has the right to opt out after three years and making a combined $14.5 million.

In the event a major elbow injury happens, Matsui's $7 million 2028 salary becomes a conditional team option with potential to become a player option.

There's also an incentive based kicker where he can increase his salary each year depending on games finished, which creates the motivation to become the team's closer.

Matsui humbly brought up how he hadn't pitched a single MLB game yet and didn't expect to close games immediately. He even spoke with players who came from MLB to NPB on needing to relearn things in baseball in this transition. 

Despite winning a World Baseball Classic championship with Samurai Japan, Matsui expressed disappointment in himself as he didn't perform on the biggest stage in favor of other pitchers and didn't appear in the semi finals or finals against Mexico nor the USA. 

"Beyond the great experience with that awesome team to win the WBC, for myself I wasn't able to perform as I wanted to, Matsui said. "I turned that into motivation. I'm motivated to go to the States and put on my best."

Matsui was originally a first round draft pick by the Rakuten Eagles in 2013 and he made the transition to closer in 2015 out of necessity due to the team having thin bullpen depth. This call by then-manager Dave Okubo worked wonders as he thrived in the 9th inning. 

Matsui became the youngest player who have 200 saves in NPB with a career ERA of 2.40 and 1.11 WHIP. 

The Padres situation is a strange transition. Last offseason, they proved to be one of the bigger spenders going all-in and signing massive contracts with Xander Bogaerts in free agency and large extensions to Manny Machado and Yu Darvish. They even had Juan Soto acquired by trade during 2022. 

The 2023 Season flopped with unclutch hitting and wasting a Cy Young season from Blake Snell. 

Their run differential reflected they should've been better, but they barely finished above .500 at 82-80 with most of those wins coming too late. 

Manager Bob Melvin left the team for the San Francisco Giants, but the larger issue is within the ownership structure. It was revealed the Padres had to take a loan to cover expenses finishing the 2023 season due to the Regional Sports Network (RSN) deal at Bally Sports collapsing in the middle of the year. Their TV rights being dropped hurt their revenue and the payroll shedding is reflective of this going into 2024.

Padres owner passed away in November, making the structure going forward uncertain. 

San Diego is in an odd middle ground where they can't rebuild when Bogaerts and Machado exist on the roster, yet they don't look good on paper to take that step and be a contender. 

For Matsui, the bullpen position is open as 2023 closer Josh Hader signed a free agent deal with the Houston Astros. 

Former Softbank Hawks reliever Robert Suarez has been with the Padres since 2022 and could be an option as is Tom Cosgrove. 

Among other competition, the Padres also signed Woo-suk Go from the KBO's LG Twins via the posting system, who also has closing experience. 

The expectations for this team are in the middle, but the opportunity for Matsui to thrive in the bullpen and be a main reliever from setup to even closer role is there.

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