The Saitama Seibu Lions already made multiple changes prior to the roster deadlines for 2024. By July 31, any possible trades for a player to count in the postseason for another team needs to be made.
For the Lions, it's looking ahead and being a last place team currently 31 games under .500 and a 0-11 head-to-head record against the Chiba Lotte Marines.
With their win percentage at .304 through July 13, the Lions are on pace for their worst season since 1971, where they were Nishitetsu Lions with a 38-84-8 record at .311 win percentage.
If this place continues at a .304 win pct, then the 2024 season becomes the worst season in franchise history.
What's the elephant in the room? Mediocre bullpen with a putrid offense at rock bottom. As a team, they're hitting very close to the Mendoza Line at .204. Zero pop, but also no getting on base.
With a historic season for the worst on the line, the Lions need to look in the mirror with their roster and see who is the plans moving forward.
This year, they already traded Gakuto Wakabayashi to the Yomiuri Giants for OF Seiya Matsubara. They also dumped Hiromasa Saito, a former first round draft pick on Ikusei, to the SoftBank Hawks for IF Daiju Nomura.
The Lions have also promoted P Shinya Sugai (third round ikusei pick in 2021), OF Koichi Okumura (sixth round ikusei pick in 2023) and Shoya Makino (recovering from injury) to the 70-man roster where all three have made at least four ichi-gun appearances each.
What happens now? More should be cut at the end of the year. We'll examine all foreigners and players who could be gone sooner than later based on playing time and performance.
One premise to keep in mind, the Lions have cut players only to give them second, third and fourth chances under Ikusei contracts. Only a handful have returned with a move up.
Two players must also be designated for the Active Player (Rule 5) Draft after the cuts, even if the Lions need to keep them for the next year.
Aito Takeda was plucked by the Marines and it's likely Tetsu Miyagawa was also given this designation. He was later traded to the Yakult Swallows for IF Hiyu Motoyama.
It really forced anyone to wait until January to know who is truly cut (戦力外) or not.
As a disclaimer, this is not a wish for players to lose their jobs, but it is the reality of the business for all teams to clear way for new draft picks. In fairness, we will not list any players currently on an ikusei contract.
Here is our list of candidates who could be gone:
IF Hiyu Motoyama
The Lions acquired Motoyama from the Swallows when sending former first round pick Tetsu Miyagawa in a trade last offseason. With only 19 ichi-gun games, it's more than likely he's unwanted.
IF Brandon Taiga Tysinger
Promoted back to the 70-man roster after a strong camp, Tysinger has failed to play an ichi-gun game after the opening three games in Sendai. In his last at-bat, he was overwhelmed in three pitches with runners in scoring position. His time is dwindling and while he showed promise in 2021, that's all in the last as his approach at the plate has led to nowhere.
IF Kakeru Yamanobe
Yamanobe has been with the team since 2019, but failed to be a regular with his poor bat. Thought to be insurance when Hideto Asamura would leave in free agency, he could never win a starting job and was a replacement player at best. He's never had more than 60 ichi-gun appearances in a single season and now that he's 30, there's plenty of younger options available.
IF Naomasa Yohkawa
Taken in the Active Player Draft from 2022, Yohkawa was thought to be a matchup specialist against left-handed pitchers. In two seasons, he has a combined 20 ichi-gun games. He's also the second oldest Japanese infielder on the roster after Takeya Nakamura. No reason to keep him around.
IF Kento Watanabe
This is what a bust looks like. Watanabe had one fun game in 2021, but can't make an impact at 1B when he was given opportunities. Only at seven ichi-gun games in 2024 being his fourth season with the Lions, it may be time to eat it and trade him. He doesn't have the power his body build would appear as.
OF Yuji Kaneko
The Lions kept him from free agency years ago, but it's been a poor investment ever since 2020, where his stolen base count took a major drop. Became less useful as a light hitter and already showed his age in the last few years failing to appear in 50 ichi-gun games for a single season since 2022. At this rate, he's blocking someone younger from opportunity to develop.
OF Takumi Kuriyama (retirement?)
The former Lions captain turns 41 in September. A part time DH, he'll likely step away when he desires to. Playing him now just hurts development for someone else.
OF Manaya Nishikawa
Nishikawa was a second round draft pick in 2017, but has failed to win a job when given the chance. At best he's a spell outfielder as his upside and ceiling is caving in at age 25.
OF Shohei Suzuki
Once thought to be the heir to Shogo Akiyama when drafted, Suzuki never took that step to be an ichi-gun regular. Whether it's an injury or performance, his inconsistency kept him odd the roster. Was often given the Opening Day job, but never retained it. Now he's 26 years old with a ceiling crashing down.
OF Wataru Takagi
Takagi was once a promoted ikusei pick back in 2019. He's had only a handful of ichi-gun appearances in each season since. However, he hasn't played an ichi-gun game in 2024, hinting he's buried on the depth chart.
C Masatoshi Okada (retirement?)
Okada hasn't appeared in a game since 2022 due to a lengthy injury. It's unclear if he'll ever be healthy enough to play in a game again.
C Sena Tsuge
With the emergence of Yuto Koga, it's likely Tsuge lost his battle and has become expendable as a backup. There isn't much incentive to keep him with younger options.
P Shota Hamaya
Hamaya saw limited action in 2020, but couldn't build off his promising start. He appeared in one game for 2024 and it's likely there won't be many chances ahead.
P Tatsushi Masuda (free agent)
Masuda is in the final year of a four year contract and while it may have been important to keep him at the time, this investment has backfired. He only has a good season in 2022 but has remained forgettable otherwise.
P Ren Omagari
A former rubber ball pitched, Omagari only saw mop up duties from 2021-2023. He has yet to make an ichi-gun appearance in 2024. Time may have run out.
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Foreign players
We look at all import players no matter how they perform and see how things look.
P Albert Abreu
Abreu has been the Lions closer for most of the season. While he's human and has his share of blown games, the Lions would welcome him back in 2025 at this pace. Question is, does someone in MLB give an offer? If so, he's going back to North America.
P Bo Takahashi
Bo has been given the back end starter job and been average. He's not going to be the most attractive option, but to eat innings, he's done his part. There's a good chance the Lions retain his services in 2025.
P Jefry Yan
Yan has been more famous for his excessive strikeout celebrations. In reality, he's taken low leverage innings which is job someone needs to do. He's cost efficient, but is there really upside here? Based on performance, the Lions could easily look for an upgrade elsewhere.
IF Jesus Aguilar
Aguilar is all but done in chances with the Lions. He looks overwhelmed in his 30 games and has lost a step in his game. Unfortunately, it's likely he played through injuries and his decline from MLB speaks for itself in comparison to his peak 2018 season in Milwaukee.
The gamble to let David MacKinnon walk with wanting Aguilar as a power hitter backfired. Crazy enough, MacKinnon is available as the Samsung Lions just released him this week.
OF Franchy Cordero
Cordero saw even fewer games than Aguilar with only 22 and the Lions have given up on him since May.
He strikes out too much for a guy who can hit it hard and can be capable of barrels. It doesn't happen enough and he's on his way out at this pace.
Conclusion
Anything goes. Anyone on this roster who isn't a proven regular should be nervous when it's the end of the season. When you're an awful team being run by a cheap ownership and have failed to scout/develop position players for years, this is what happens. Kazuo Matsui was the first scapegoat, but who else in the front office or staff deserves to go?
Maybe the people who liked Kento Watanabe would be a start.
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