The Saitama Seibu Lions lost a series to the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks at home to close out the final games before the 2026 NPB All-Star break.
With a 9-10-1 record in July and one more game against Orix on 7/31 pending, they sit in second place of the Pacific League 5.5 games behind the Hawks and only 1/2 game ahead of the Hokkaido-Nippon Ham Fighters.
Here's our observations and notable highlights of the team through the last six weeks as the All Star break begins:
The Lions are a mediocre team as a whole without the Interleague
They currently sit 53-40-3 at the All Star break, but taking away the Interleague dominance (14-3-1) over the Central League, their record falls to 39-37-2 against Pacific League opponents.
Overall that record doesn't seem awful in perspective, but this is not some contending team we hoped for at the end of May. It's been very clear the Hawks and Fighters are head above shoulders in depth going forward and the Lions took advantage of early hiccups. Against those teams alone since June, the Lions are 5-9 with the trend going further South playing the Hawks.
A three game sweep in three different locations against the Rakuten Eagles didn't help either, as now they've become a tough opponent firing their manager and Masato Yoshii took over a squad who can play relaxed with nothing to lose.
Are things better than last year? Yes, but they're not close to being a guaranteed winning squad going forward.
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Bullpen has avoided a major free fall, for now
The backbreaking 8-7 loss in Tokyo Dome to the Eagles is exactly what many feared was due to happen. They followed that up with a six game losing streak to enter July.
Fortunately, in spite of all of this, there hasn't been a breaking point just yet for this bullpen. Hiroshi Kaino is the best closer option going forward, as human as he is giving up a hit or walk nearly every outing. Trey Wingenter has been excellent returning from his injury and Hibiki Shinohara has carried much of the setup role.
The Lions will likely shut down Shinohara or limit his work for the rest of 2026 given his age and inexperience reaching a career high of 30 innings at one 19 years old, majority of them in high leverage situations.
Next man up will need to happen and it did so against Eagles on 7/20 in a bullpen designed Monday game. What can Yuta Nakamura, Emmanuel Ramirez, Ryosuke Moriwaki, Masaya Kuroda and Taishi Mameda do as relievers? There's no guaranteed right answer when these pitchers are thrust in.
Hakua Iwaki is also back with the ichi-gun after the team demoted him from the closer role while also placing him in the farm. The options are there, but can it hold up?
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Injuries have taken their hits on offense
Masayuki Kuwahara and Shinya Hasegawa are both out for a lengthy amount of time, likely not coming back until September if lucky. But the latter was a key surprise about to have a breakout season until his injury.
The offense is being carried by Natsuo Takizawa and Tyler Nevin, where everyone else is best in a pinch or when playing a matchup. The opportunities opened up for a struggling Manaya Nishikawa, An-Ko Lin and even former first round pick Takuya Hiruma to seize their chances. Others like Junichiro Kishi are not meant to be everyday hitters.
Aside from a rotational catcher position of Taiga Kojima and Yuto Koga being fine, majority of the remaining healthy players are too inconsistent to see as regulars.
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Starting pitching remains strong, but how does it hold up?
There could be stamina questions for some pitchers going into the final 1/3 of the season as we're 96 games into the 143 played.
They've seen spot starters or part time outings from Sou Sato, Shinya Sugai and Allan Winans hold their ground well, but is there a constant starting six man rotation? Not really.
Chihiro Sumida, Natsuki Takeuchi, Kona Takahashi Kaima Taira and Yutaro Watanabe have seen the bulk load. However, Takeuchi and Sumida's last outings against the Hawks raise concerns.
The blueprint is out there to work the starter and annoy him to build a higher pitch count as seen in several Taira outings. Then the shaky bullpen can come in as early as the 6th for a pouncing.
Feels like this team is hanging by a thread or fortunate to not sink further.
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Possible roster cuts
July is also the time to evaluate the roster and see who is vulnerable to being cut going forward. We will refrain from mentioning Ikusei players who are already at the bottom of the totem pole and must be released on transaction by default if they've spent three years or more with the team.
OF Takuya Hiruma: .286/.286/.543 in 14 games
Hiruma was buried for nearly his entire Lions career. A former first round draft pick, this may be now or never to prove his worth as he turns 26 in September. His career high is 63 ichi-gun games played in 2023 and he could eclipse this if he earns it as Kuwahara and Hasegawa return from injury. By default, this may be the window of opportunity needed.
While he has been fine in a 14 game sample size, this isn't enough to guarantee anything. Failing to crack last years lineup with only 12 ichi-gun games in 2025 warrants a target on his back.
It's possible this season buys another year, but if he's not a regular starter by 2027, it's safe to call him a bust.
IF Wataru Takamatsu: No games in 2026
Takamatsu came in as a mid season trade during the forgettable 2023 season. He mostly saw time as a pinch runner. His role has been usurped by Tokumasa Chano and others on the roster that he's become expendable.
IF Keisuke Nakata: .083/.083/.250 in 15 games
Nakata was a cheap pickup who saw a decent amount of playing time in 2025 as a reject of the Hawks. His time has diminished since and others have taken his place on the ichi-gun roster.
C Shoya Makino: No games in 2026
Makino is a farm catcher at best. It's possible there is just no room for him going forward with the catcher position already crowded.
P Kaito Yoza: No games in 2026
A long time submarine pitcher who saw plenty of starts and outings, he's only seen five games at the farm level. As he turns 31 this September, is there uncertainty ahead?
P Yuta Kuroki: No games in 2026
Kuroki was a long time Orix Buffaloes reliever and saw a decent amount of action in 2025 as a cheap signing by the Lions. With no games in 2026 as he turns 32, there doesn't look like room for him in the bullpen.
P Ryota Itogawa: 6.17 ERA, 0-1 in 9 games
Itogawa saw a handful of outings this season, but nothing to warrant staying on the ichi-gun roster. A late round shakaijin draft pick, at age 28, he doesn't have the upside that others have.
P Minato Aoyama: 9.00 ERA in 2 games
Aoyama was a favored pitcher of Kazuo Matsui during his time as manager. He has since fallen out of favor within the Fumiya Nishiguchi era and hasn't taken the steps forward to earn playing time at age 26.
P Wataru Matsumoto: No games in 2026
A long time rotational pitcher from 2019-2023 and former first round draft pick, the Lions switched him to reliever in 2024 and he hasn't recovered since. Now he is struggling at the farm level and has no reason to play ichi-gun games in 2026. Has he lost his form for good?
Foreign player Outlook
Here we will look at all foreign players, ikusei excluded and see what could happen for 2027.
Tyler Nevin: .271/.328/.556, 15 HRs in 57 games
Nevin is already under contract through the 2027 season having signed an extension before the 2025 season concluded. He didn't even play a game in March or April and already picked up where he left off. It's a good thing they won't need to do contract negotiations this year.
Trey Wingenter: 0.00 ERA, 0-0 in 16 games
Wingenter didn't play until June battling an injury like Nevin before him. He's been the reinforcement the Lions have needed for the bullpen taking the 8th inning, not allowing an earned run up to this point, earning a hold in every outing.
At this pace he should receive a contract offer for 2027, but does a Major League team notice him and give him an MLB contract? That's the issue.
Emmanuel Ramirez: 6.00, 2-1 in 8 games
Ramirez spent most of the season off the roster being hurt. He earned his second year after mostly taking low leverage duties last season, seeing occasional moments this year.
However, his lack of health has hurt the team and others have taken his former place. He was used as an opener on 7/20 for two innings and can still eat frames. Is it enough? Uncertain given his costs going up against his production.
Allan Winans: 4.19 ERA, 2-3 in 7 games
Winans was looking like a steak when the Lions patiently waited to make his first start in May. After four strong starts, he followed up with a few forgettable ones and hasn't seen rotational action since, currently sitting off the roster as Ramirez and Lin hold the two import spots over him.
It's possible he receives some spot starts to end the year, can he make the most of it? He's been on the unfortunate side of a foreign player roster logjam. It's very wait and see if he receives an offer for 2027.
Alexander Canario: .246/.300/.363, 8 HR in 87 games
The former Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder has played some of the most games this season for the Lions. His defense and athleticism in the OF have been a standout while the offense has its flashes.
If his statline stood around this pace, it's unclear if he gets an offer for 2027 if the Lions want more home runs and power hitting. But being 26 for an import player is still young by foreigner standards and he still has upside. There's a case both ways, but if he's still a starting player through the final 1/3, his chances only increase to stay.
An-Ko Lin: .219/.288/.394, 6 HR in 52 games
Lin was given a fair chance prior to interleague play and it looked like he would remain buried for the rest of the year. Like Hiruma, he's getting playing time now with no choice due to Kuwahara and Hasegawa out with injury.
Since returning he had a flash to show off his power for a few games, but it hasn't been enough to warrant a guarantee for 2027. He'll need to do more in August to take away a starting role from Hasegawa or Kuwahara.
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Final outlook
As of right now, nobody knows where this team is heading into the final 47 games of the year. They've made progress, even won an interleague title and can pitch. But has the Pacific League adjusted to these antics from May?
Getting into the postseason would still be an accomplishment when we had this team just being competitive for the second half. With this record and strong first half to be in first place for a stretch, they can't afford to repeat like 2015 and go on a historic losing streak to come up short.
They're a crazy unpredictable team that can't be written off, but the battle remains uphill for the rest of the year.
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