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Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP)

Friday, December 7, 2018

Gurazeni meets NPB: What is 18 million worth?


Gurazeni is a baseball anime that premiered last spring. You can read our spoiler-free Season 1 review here. A cool trivial fact is how Fukushi Ochiai, the son of legendary Chunichi Dragons player and manager Hiromitsu Ochiai is the voice of the show's protagonist.

For a show that is focused on money, Natsunosuke Bonda, the main protagonist makes only ¥18 million yen in the first season. It's documented how much he wants to make more and make a comfortable living, given that he has a limited time for his playing career.

In reality, it is the cruel side of professional sports for any athlete, how doing well creates a payday while losing can lead to being cut.



Here, we will take a look at the reported salaries of 2018 and see who matched what Bonda made. We'll summarize a brief skinny on each player and see their status for 2019.

As a bonus, we can also compare how closely related each player is to Bonda, as someone striving to stay up at the ichi-gun or not. While not everyone is a left-handed pitching specialist like Bonda, we're looking at the concept of someone hoping to keep their job.

Some guys may be a veteran on his last legs while others could be a prospect making ¥18 million. For the record, Bonda was the last person drafted out of high school and is 26 years old.

We have also rounded up or down if there was a salary that said ¥17.1 or ¥18.9 just to give a little more wiggle room for more players to include in the sample size. To include all 12 teams, a few were rounded down or up even greater.

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OF Shota Ishimine (Chiba Lotte Marines)

2018 Salary: ¥18.4 million

2018 Slashline: .283/.389/.326 in 18 ichi-gun games.

Ishimine had a once promising career and was a first round draft pick by the Marines in 2011. Unfortunately, things have fallen out of favor given there is an outfield logjam. A mediocre 2013 and
2014 led him to being benched and is mostly a reserve outfielder.

Relation to Bonda: 25%. Ishimine won't be an ichi-gun regular anytime soon and is just there for depth. Being a first round pick to falling out of favor doesn't compare as easy.

Pay cut or pay raise: Pay cut. His role has diminished since 2015 and hasn't played more than 60 ichi-gun games since 2014. Ishimine's salary was reduced to ¥15.4 million.

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P Yuki Saito (Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters)

2018 Salary: ¥18.3 million

2018 Stats: (0-1), 7.27 ERA, 8.2 innings pitched, three ichi-gun games.

Saito is likely the most famous player in Japan not named Ichiro Suzuki. He is forever the 2006 Summer Koshien hero, where he outdueled Masahiro Tanaka in 24 innings, spanning two days in the final. There's a good chance even the non-sports fan in Japan knows this name.

Instead of going straight out of high school like Tanaka, he went to University and became a first round pick, where four teams wanted his rights in 2010. Saito's career has gone backwards since, thanks to injuries and being overworked prior to the Fighters.

His first two years were promising, but hasn't been able to recover from shoulder problems. Early on, he had a complete game on opening day in 2012.

Saito is forever a cash cow who can live off what he did in high school as the Fighters can still rake from this today. He will always a loyal following of fans for being a Koshien legend, but it's unsure when his playing career will end. Either way, he's lined up financially for life because of his high school accomplishments.

Today, Saito is mostly a spot starter who might make an appearance out of the bullpen here and there, though he is the punchline of jokes among the English speaking NPB crowd.

Relation to Bonda: 0%. Saito's high school career is beyond unique and while both guys have their struggles, Bonda can't relate to this story of being a first round bust and high school legend.

Pay cut or pay raise: Pay cut. Saito's salary dropped to ¥15 million for 2019.
===

OF Yuki Miyazaki (Orix Buffaloes)

2018 Salary: ¥18 million

2018 Slashline: .238/.325/.335. 3 home runs in 84 at-bats. Played in 33 ichi-gun games.

Miyazaki was a third round shakaijin draft pick by Orix back in 2010, but has mostly seen time as a reserve outfielder. At age 32, he doesn't have as much upside and it's likely Orix would prefer going in a younger direction. The most ichi-gun games he has played in a season is 53 back in 2013.

Relation to Bonda: 60%. Miyazaki is still trying to claw his way and stay at the ichi-gun, but he bounces up and down and can't be a regular. Being a veteran who may not last is the only thing that keeps this percentage from being higher.

Pay cut or pay raise: Neither. Orix kept him at status quo of ¥18 million.

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C Shuta Takajo (Orix Buffaloes)

2018 Salary: ¥18 million

2018 Slashline: .136/.183/.152 in 28 ichi-gun games with the Yokohama DeNA Baystars

Takajo was traded in the middle of the season from the Baystars to the Buffaloes which saw a swap in catchers. He was the third catcher on the Baystars and had no ichi-gun games with the Buffaloes. He's 25 years old, but Orix likely sees him as just roster depth. Takajo was originally a second round pick by the Baystars out of high school in 2011.

Relation to Bonda: 25%. Takajo is just trying to keep his job and likely won't crack ichi-gun time unless there's an injury. He's a depth catcher at best.

Pay cut or pay raise: Neither. Orix retained his ¥18 million salary for 2019. Once again though, he has a huge uphill battle as a reserve catcher.

===

IF Hiroyuki Shirasaki (Orix Buffaloes)

2018 Salary: ¥18.5 million

2018 Slashline: .239/.288/.358 in 30 ichi-gun games with Orix

.185/.200/.241 in 34 ichi-gun games with DeNA

Shirasaki was also involved in the trade that saw Takajo go to Orix with him. He was a first round pick by the Baystars out of college in 2012, but never panned out. In 2013. he played 101 games and had an OPS below .600.  A once promising prospect when drafted, it's safe to say he was a bust.

At best, Shirasaki can be a defensive replacement, but earned some starts at the end of the year with Orix's season already over.

Relation to Bonda: 70%. While Shirasaki was a prospect at one point in his career, he's fighting his way for ichi-gun time with Orix. He could be a specialist to come in for defense like how Bonda is designed for left-handed hitters. Only difference is how Shirasaki was a first round pick.

Pay cut or pay raise: Neither. Shirasaki's ichi-gun time at the end of the year prevented any decrease and he will make ¥18.5 million in 2019.
===

P Shoma Fujihira (Rakuten Eagles)

2018 Salary: ¥18 million

2018 Stats: (4-7), 4.43 ERA, 1 CG, 81.1 IP, 68 K, 14 ichi-gun games

Fujihira was the Eagles first round draft pick in 2016. He got a decent workload for a kid who was taken out of high school and naturally struggled. While looking good in some innings, he would often hang a pitch or two up for a home run and remain vulnerable for a frame.

The Eagles of course see him as a future ace where there is plenty of room for him to grow at 20 years old.

Relation to Bonda: 0%. Fujihira is one of the top pitching prospects for the Eagles as the team sees him as a future ace. He had his ups and downs, but it's all part of the growing process.

Pay cut or pay raise: Neither. Fujihira's average season in his sophomore year of NPB didn't cause change as he'll make ¥18 million in 2019.

===

C Yuichi Adachi (Rakuten Eagles)

2018 Salary: ¥18 million

2018 Slashline: .111/.158/.111 in 18 AB, 20 ichi-gun games.

Adachi was the third catcher for the Eagles behind Motohiro Shima and Ayatsugu Yamashita. At age 29, he doesn't have the upside that younger catchers on the team have and it's likely he's near the end. Surprisingly, he survived the senryokugai roster cuts as Toru Hosokawa was the casualty removed.

Relation to Bonda: 30%. Adachi is not an ichi-gun regular and is a tier below Bonda on the roster. As the third catcher with plenty of competition behind him, it doesn't look as good.

Pay cut or pay raise: Pay cut. Short time with the ichi-gun reduced his salary to ¥15 million.

===

OF Fumikazu Kimura (Saitama Seibu Lions)

2018 Salary: ¥18.6 million

2018 Slashline: .260/.330/.413 in 104 AB, 75 ichi-gun games,

Kimura is the top defensive replacement for the Lions when playing in right field. A converted pitcher, the Lions initially drafted in the first round of 2006 before he switched to being a full time position player in 2013. Every once in awhile, he would spell a regular starter if facing a let handed pitcher. He also hit a sayonara HR in 2018.

Relation to Bonda: 75%. Kimura has found a way to survive as a position player after not panning out as a pitcher. Today, he knows what he's supposed to do on defense and that likely defines what he is. A part time position player who can come in as a defensive replacement.

Pay cut or pay raise: Pay Raise. Kimura fulfilled his role on defense and had a decent bat as a spell outfielder to earn ¥23.6 million. He'll never be an everyday starter as Hatsuhiko Tsuji saw it didn't work in 2017, but he has duty and did it well in 2018.

===

P Akira Niho (Fukuoka Softbank Hawks)

2018 Salary: ¥17 million

2018 Stats: (1-0), 5.34 ERA, 30.1 IP, 17 K, 1 SB in 35 ichi-gun games.

Niho saw ichi-gun action for the first time since 2015 as he came off Tommy John surgery. He played in mostly medium and low leverage outings, but getting work is a good start for him. Niho was originally a second round ikusei pick out of high school for the Hawks in 2008. He could be a middle relief arm and is still useful in his late 20s.

Relation to Bonda: 80%. Niho being an ikusei makes it all but more relate-able to Bonda as someone to had to work his way up. It's likely he gets more middle relief outings in 2019.

Pay cut or pay raise: Pay raise. Getting back to the ichi-gun had his wages go up to ¥20 million.

===

OF Tomoaki Egawa (Fukuoka Softbank Hawks)

2018 Salary: ¥17 million

2018 Slashline: .600/.600/1.400 in five AB, five ichi-gun games.

Egawa only saw a little bit of ichi-gun time and at age 32, it's likely to stay at a small rate given how many players are in front of him on the depth chart. He has only played more than 50 games in a single season once, back in 2013. As a reserve outfielder, his upside isn't there to do much.

Relation to Bonda: 30%. While Egawa is fighting for playing time, it's likely that other players block him from doing so. He's nothing more than depth behind Yuki Yanagita, Akira Nakamura and more.

Pay cut or pay raise: Pay cut. Playing only five ichi-gun games dropped his salary to ¥14 million.

===

P Yoshinori Sato (Tokyo Yakult Swallows) 

2018 Salary: ¥18 million

2018 Stats: (1-2), 4.46 ERA, 34.1 IP, 37 K, 7 ichi-gun games

The Swallows are the NPB team Gurazeni is based off of, as the fictional name is Jingu Spiders. However, Sato is far from being Bonda's counterpart in career path.

Sato was a highly touted first round pick for his high school accomplishments back in 2007, where several teams were interested in him. He looked to be a very promising starter in the front end of his career, but several shoulder injuries and problems derailed it.

He had an extended gap of ichi-gun games after the 2011 season and didn't work his way back until 2016. Sato has spent multiple stints as an ikusei as a result, which includes as most recent as the 2018 season. While he has spot started on occasion, the injuries and several surgeries only leave question marks to his career on what could've been.

Sato was recently cut by the team at the end of the year and went through a tryout. He was signed to an ikusei deal by the Rakuten Eagles.

Relation to Bonda: 5%. Like Yuki Saito, Sato had a great high school career and was highly touted. While his comeback from injury was a great story, he has a name brand recognition that Bonda doesn't have. Today, he will be fighting his way to hope for a 70-man roster spot with the Eagles.

Pay cut or Pay raise: Pay cut. Sato made plenty of money in the beginning of his career, but he's going to make less than ¥3.5 million as an ikusei with Rakuten.

===

IF Yasuhiro Yamamoto (Yomiuri Giants)

2018 Salary: ¥18 million

2018 Slashline: .255/.340/.314 in 102 AB, 38 ichi-gun games

Yamamoto was a 5th round draft pick out of college by the Giants in 2015. He is a reserve and mostly part-time player for his first three years in the league as this year was a career-high in ichi-gun games. In his rookie year of 2016, he started 18 of his 27 games played.

Relation to Bonda: 40%. Yamamoto is hoping to crack more ichi-gun time, but he also has fringe prospect status.

Pay cut or Pay raise: Slight pay raise. The Giants factored in his ichi-gun progression and his stock took a bump to ¥18.5 million as a result.

===

IF Taketoshi "Gomez" Goto (Yokohama DeNA Baystars)

2018 Salary: ¥18.9 million

2018 Slashline: .000/.000/.000. One strikeout in his lone plate appearance and ichi-gun game for 2018.

Gomez has been a veteran of the league and initially started his career with the Lions back in 2003. With others emerging and while given a starting role in his first year, his playing time diminished and was eventually traded to the Baystars. Gomez never played more than 70 ichi-gun games after he had 101 in his rookie season.

This past year, he had a retirement ceremony and only one at-bat, which resulted in a strikeout last September. He accepted a position to work as the ni-gun hitting coach for the Rakuten Eagles in 2019.

Relation to Bonda: 0%. Gomez came off a retirement season and had a long lengthy career off the bench.

Pay cut or pay raise: Pay cut. Coaches usually make less than players and he will need to work his way up the hierarchy if he wants to continues his career in baseball.

===

P Junki Ito (Chunichi Dragons)

2018 Salary: ¥17 million

2018 Stats: (2-0), 3.95 ERA, 13.2 IP, 6 K, 11 ichi-gun games

Ito saw a career-high 39 games in 2017 and has mostly seen time out of the bullpen. His role diminished in 2018 and was part of a bullpen that continued to shuffle players in and out. He was originally a second round draft pick out of high school by the Dragons back in 2008.

Relation to Bonda: 85%. In a lot of ways, he is the closest thing to Bonda if we were recapping the 2017 season given his age and being a HS draft pick. Of course he's right handed and not truly a specialist against right-handed hitters like how Bonda is built for lefties. Ito had his ups and downs like Bonda.

Pay cut or pay raise: Pay cut. Ito saw less innings in 2018 and his reported salary dropped to ¥14 million.

===

P Takaya Toda (Hiroshima Carp)

2018 Salary: ¥18 million

2018 Stats: (0-0), 5.19 ERA, 17.1 IP, 13 K, 7 ichi-gun games

Toda was a frequent reliever for the Carp back in 2014-2015, but switched to being a starter in 2016. He initially came up as a spot starter when Hiroki Kuroda was injured in 2015 and mostly saw long relief innings after that.

An injury accident where he fell in the dormitory resulted in ligament damage and he hasn't recovered since. The Carp have only used him in a soft role out of the bullpen as others jumped him on the depth chart.

At age 25, there is still a chance he can contribute and he's also close to Bonda's age. Toda was originally taken in the third round of the 2011 draft out of high school.

Relation to Bonda: 60%. Toda may have lost his role from a few years ago, but he still has an opportunity to do more.

Pay cut or pay raise: Pay cut. Seven ichi-gun game appearances didn't help his cause. His reported salary for 2019 dropped to ¥16 million.

===

P Tsuyoshi Ishizaki (Hanshin Tigers)

2018 Salary: ¥18 million

2018 Stats: (0-0), 4.20 ERA, 15 IP, 23 K, 12 ichi-gun games

Ishizaki appeared to have had a breakout year in 2017 when part of a loaded Hanshin Tigers bullpen. A 3/4 arm slot pitcher, he helped contribute in middle relief. The wheels started to fall off in 2018, where the bullpen had others emerge and he struggled in the first half of the year and was eventually sent down for it.

For his 2017 season, he was named to Samurai Japan for the exhibitions before the 2018 season. Recently, he had his right elbow cleaned out in June. He's 28 and could still do damage out of the bullpen, but came off a down season. Ishizaki was originally a second round pick out of college in 2014.

Relation to Bonda: 75%. A reliever who hasn't completely established himself yet? Pretty close to Bonda. He has a larger window to do more despite his age being 28. Ishizaki should be part of a bullpen that hopes to recover next year.

Pay cut or pay raise: Pay cut. Inability to stay at the ichi-gun when healthy dropped his salary to ¥14.4 million.

===

P Taiki Ono (Hanshin Tigers)

2018 Salary: ¥18 million

2018 Stats: (7-7), 4.77 ERA, 126.1 IP, 96 K, 23 ichi-gun games

Ono was a second round draft pick of the Tigers out of college in 2016. He was able to crack ichi-gun games in his rookie year and was a starter for most of 2018 as well. This past year, he struggled with control and had several walks, leading to a high ERA. At age 24, he is still a work in progress for the Tigers and could develop into a mid-rotation starter.

Relation to Bonda: 20%. Ono completed his second year in NPB and still has time to grow.

Pay cut or Pay raise: Pay raise. Ono staying at the ichi-gun level gave his salary a boost to ¥27 million for 2019. Unlike most of the people on this list, Ono still has upside.

===

OF Hayata Ito (Hanshin Tigers)

2018 Salary: ¥18 million

2018 Slashline: .247/335/.340, 150 AB, 172 PA, 96 ichi-gun games

Ito was a hyped up first round pick of the Tigers back in 2011 and was thought to be a future outfielder. He had some great accomplishments at the college level back in the Tokyo Big6.

At the professional level, Ito struggled to crack ichi-gun time and showed he lacks defense. In the Yutaka Wada era, he never played more than 63 games. When Tomoaki Kanemoto took over in 2016, he found use for Ito as a pinch hitter in 2017 and that has kept him afloat at the ichi-gun level. With a new era in Tigers history coming up, it's unclear what his role will be in 2019 and beyond, because he doesn't have upside at age 29.

Relation to Bonda: 80%. Ito is still trying to stay relevant at the ichi-gun after being a first round bust like the many already listed here. As someone who comes up in a pinch, Ito can indeed relate to Bonda.

Pay cut or Pay raise: Pay raise. The Tiger gave him a bump in salary to ¥22 million for playing more than half the season.

===

Summary:

In total we had five players get a raise, eight get a pay cut while five of them remained status quo with the same salary as 2018. Goto would count as a ninth pay cut given he retired and now serves as a coach.

Seven of these players were former first round draft picks and some had quite the hype. In total, we have seven players who are on the fringe of staying as an ichi-gun player while hoping to fight for more playing time. Others are still prospects who have more upside than what Bonda has.

When it comes to a consensus, there are several players who would be considered journeymen if they were stateside ballplayers. Definitely not great, but good enough to be at the ichi-gun. Kimura, J. Ito and H. Ito fit in this category.

The ¥18 million salary is definitely a fun measuring stick and maybe this exercise could be done in future seasons to determine what it really means.

===

Bonus: Closest resemblance to Bonda


P Ryuya Ogawa (Seibu Lions) 

2018 Salary: ¥12 million

2018 Stats: (1-0), 1.59 ERA, 15 ichi-gun games.

Ogawa was drafted out of high school initially in the second round by the Dragons back in 2009. At age 27, he easily resembles Bonda the most given his side arm abilities and being left-handed.

Ignoring the fact that he's a pitcher and built for lefties, Ogawa has struggled to find a role prior to coming to the Lions. He played 44 ichi-gun games for the Dragons in 2016, but fell out of favor when Shigekazu Mori went with younger pitchers in the bullpen. Ogawa was traded to the Lions in the middle of the 2018 season for cash considerations.

With the Lions, he was eased in through ni-gun and later saw action in middle relief against left-handed hitters. Manager Hatsuhiko Tsuji gave him an extended look at put Ogawa in early as a swingman to take up one batter or two, but mostly saw time against lefties.

For a player who is trying to survive like Bonda, there's no question he has the closest resemblance among current NPB players. The Lions bullpen next season will hope he can take middle relief innings and be part of a group that can provide stability if they have the lead.

Pay cut or pay raise: Pay raise. His salary went up to ¥17 million for his role last season.

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