About: Why the Lions?

Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP)

Wednesday, December 5, 2018

Seibu Lions compensation options for Sumitani


The Saitama Seibu Lions have two compensation choices this offseason. Their first decision will come regarding the loss of Hideto Asamura to the Rakuten Eagles. The second is Ginjiro Sumitani signing with the Yomiuri Giants.

Last year, the Lions took Hayato Takagi when they lost Ryoma Nogami in free agency to the Giants. At the time, it was a pleasant surprise he was available.

Here are the two financial options the Lions could take as Sumitani made ¥110 last season to be a Type B Free Agent. :

-Cash option of ¥66 million

OR

-Unprotected player and ¥44 million in cash.

Once again, there is a 28-man protected list that the Giants will send the Lions. A writer projected this list with possibilities of who is open, but didn't make any suggestions for the Lions. We'll try to translate the words as best as we can, but will show who is protected.

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Pitchers (14): 

Tomoyuki Sugano
Ryosuke Miyaguni
Nobutaka Imamura
Hosei Takata
Kazuto Taguchi
Seiji Tahara
Tetsuya Utsumi
Hirokazu Sawamura
Shun Yamaguchi
Seishu Hatake
Toshiki Sakurai
Ryoma Nogami
Takuya Kuwahara
Ryusei Oe

Pitchers available:

Masahiko Morifuku
Tappei Tanioka
Mitsuo Yoshikawa
Kota Nakagawa
Shun Ikeda
Kyosuke Takagi
Kan Otake
Chiaki Tone

Translation: The Lions won the Pacific League Pennant  with offense, but the pitching faltered with a league-worst 4.24 ERA. With Yusei Kikuchi leaving for MLB, we're expecting more protection and need for a pitcher. Yamaguchi, Sugano, Utsumi and Sawamura are easy locks. Takata did well in ni-gun, while Hatake and Taguchi are expected to do better in 2019.

Nogami will be protected as he is reunited with his former battery mate in Sumitani. Among the veterans, Yoshikawa, Otake and Morifuku become expendable.

Reaction: A mixture of prospects and mainstays are protected as expected. There could be short term relief help with aging veterans, but Otake and Morifuku aren't young while Yoshikawa is a one-year wonder. Tone could be an interesting option granted he didn't play an ichi-gun game in 2018. Tanioka is a young option if the Lions wanted a prospect to develop.

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Catchers (3):

Seiji Kobayashi
Takumi Oshiro
Yukinori Kishida

Catchers available: 

Takaya Tanaka
Shingo Usami

Translation: Although the depth got thinner with Sumitani going to the Giants, Seibu has Tomoya Mori and Masatoshi Okada with several young players in the farm they just drafted. The odds of taking a catcher here would be very low.

Kobayashi has been a Giants starter while Oshiro appeared in 83 ichi-gun games. Kishida was  a second round pick in 2017, so it's unlikely the team would expose him. Usami fell out of favor and saw his playing time diminish, making it easy for him to be unprotected.

Reaction: Pretty chalk list and given Oshiro/Kishida were both drafted in 2017, it's likely this is 100% accurate to what will happen. It's not like the Lions would force the issue here.

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Infielders (5): 

Naoki Yoshikawa
Hayato Sakamoto
Kazuma Okamoto
Shunta Tanaka
Takumi Kitamura

Infielders available:

Shinnosuke Abe
Daiki Masuda
Akihiro Wakabayashi
Dai Yuasa
Yasuhiro Yamamoto

Translation: Seibu has lost Hideto Asamura, which creates a void at second base. Hotaka Yamakawa and Sosuke Genda are already mainstays on the infield while Takeya "Okawari-kun" Nakamura and Shuta Tonosaki are at third base. Tonosaki could take over at second base, but he hasn't shown he can be a regular on the infield compared to when he was in right field.

The probability of the Lions taking an infielder would be very low. Meanwhile, Giants have also struggled at finding a second baseman with nine different players in that position last year. N. Yoshikawa, Tanaka and Kitamura could be the heir for the infield with the latter being decent on the farm.

Abe is a legend and future hall of famer, but with the Lions not needing a catcher, first baseman or DH, it's easier to unprotect him as he likely won't be claimed.

Reaction: Given how young Dai Yuasa is (born in 2000), he wouldn't be a bad intriguing name to develop if the Lions trust their coaches. No shockers here if the Giants protect and expose these players either.

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Outfielders (6)

Daikan Yoh
Hisayoshi Chono
Seiya Matsubara
Shinnosuke Shigenobu
Shingo Ishikawa
Ren Wada

Outfielders available:

Kaito Murakami
Yoshiyuki Kamei
Soichiro Tateoka

Translation: Seibu's outfield has Shogo Akiyama, Yuji Kaneko, Shuta Tonosaki (utility), Takumi Kuriyama, Fumikazu Kimura and Shogo Saito, which is already well-established. On paper, they'd like to call up younger players to take over in the long run.

Ishikawa and Wada were big on the farm for the Giants while Shigenobu hit .281 at the ichi-gun. Chono and Yoh are regular starters. Matsubara was praised by (manager Tatsunori Hara) as he was promoted from the ikusei in the middle of 2018. Kamei was a regular, but it's possible the Giants unprotect him due to his age.

Reaction: It would be shocking if the Giants unprotected Kamei, but it would be the right call given what the Lions don't need. Murakami was a 7th round draft pick in 2017 and is the only one with upside assuming that's all available among this position.

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Summary: 

The Lions can go with a pitching prospect or get a short term fix among the pitchers listed. Options will be very thin, but if they like a young player they think they can develop, it's more interesting than just taking the money and running away with it.

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Here were the poll results that we took to Twitter. 



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