Saturday, November 16, 2019

Nine years later: Grading the Seibu Lions 2010 draft class


The time has come to start reviewing draft classes and looking back on what could have been. Starting from 2010 and going all the way to 2018, we will take a look at how each draft class in this decade (minus 2019) has done.

There will also be some hindsight players on who was also taken in this draft. Here is a look at 2010:

First round: P Tatsuya Oishi (Waseda University, Tokyo) 

The Lions entered a six-way drawing for the second year in a row and Hisanobu "Nabe-Q" Watanabe pulled the winning ticket again. This time he was the last to draw from the box (he was first in 2009) and earned the nickname "hand of god" for winning Yusei Kikuchi and Oishi in back to back years.

Oishi's career was a failure, where he battled injuries and didn't make his ichi-gun debut until 2012. As a reliever, he struggled from 2012-2013. After dealing with injury in 2015, Oishi started to earn meaningful innings in 2016 and had his best year to date as a middle reliever. In 31.2 innings, he had 36 strikeouts with a 1.71 ERA. However, plenty of his outings came in with inherited runners.

His 2017 season was on pace to continue a redemption path, but a neck injury slowed him down and he only saw 20 games and 19.1 innings of work with a 0.93 ERA. His slider was strong since 2016 and when the late Shinji Mori was promoted to the ichi-gun as a coach, Oishi made significant improvements.

Oishi's playing time diminished in 2018 and 2019 where he only made two ichi-gun appearances in the latter year. He was named as part of the senryokugai in October and will now work in the Lions front office, retiring as a player.

Once the prized jewel of this class, Oishi is arguably one of the biggest busts in franchise history.

 Grade: F

Hindsight: The Dragons took Yudai Ono and Giants selected Hirokazu Sawamura unopposed after four teams went for Yuki Saito. Yuya Fukui, the third Waseda pitcher selected in the first round, was taken by the Carp and has been a back end starter. Tetsuto Yamada was the third choice selection by the Yakult Swallows after losing their second choice drawing for Takahiro Shiomi. 

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Second round: P Kazuhisa Makita (Nihon Express, Saitama)

The Lions took a shakaijin submarine pitcher who was about to be 26 after the draft and this worked to perfection. Makita was Pacific League rookie of the year in 2011 as a closer and he became a starter from 2012-2015. Things also backfired making him a closer in the middle of 2015. The MetLife Dome mound was built for Makita with a soft dirt at one point.

Makita became a fireman middle reliever capable of eating multiple innings in 2016 and remained effective as a setup man in 2017. He was posted by the Lions after the 2017 season after being productive for seven years and spent the last two seasons in the San Diego Padres organization, but only appearing in MLB for 2018. He is seeking a return to NPB. Grade: A- 

Hindsight: Yuki Yanagita was taken by the Hawks in this round, two spots after Makita. Ryosuke Miyaguni was drafted by the Giants, Minabu Mima was drafted by the Eagles. 

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Third round: OF Shogo Akiyama (Hachinohe University, Aomori) 

Akiyama was a cleanup hitter in college and, like Makita, played immediately in his rookie year. After hitting .297/.343/.404 in 2012, it appeared Akiyama would be a dominant outfielder for many years to come. He had a down time from 2013-2014, but his 2015 year was a breakout season where he broke Matt Murton's single-season hits record with 216. In 2017, an argument can be made his best season yet came, where he hit .322/.398/.536 with a career high 25 home runs.

He has had three consistent years of at least 20 home runs while having an OBP of at least .390 while hitting .300. Akiyama reached international free agency in 2019 and is seeking an MLB opportunity. 

The Lions found a leadoff hitter who has decent range and an above average arm while also setting a record in the process. 

Grade: A+ 

Hindsight: None. 
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Fourth round: P Kyohei Maegawa (Hannadai HS, Osaka)

A tall and lanky Maegawa was rehabbing from an elbow injury and registered four ichi-gun games in 2011, where he had a 5.40 ERA in 3.1 innings pitched. He failed to play in any game for 2012 and was cut after the season. The Lions kept Maegawa as an ikusei from 2013-2015, but he could only record a handful of ni-gun games from 2014-2015 out of the bullpen. He was cut for good after the 2015 season.

Grade: F

Hindsight: None. 

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Fifth round: IF Ryo Hayashizaki (Toyo University, Tokyo) 

Hayashizaki played a combined 55 games at the ichi-gun level and had a slashline of .203/263/.230. He only saw 17 games in 2014, where he hit .263 in a small sample size. The Lions cut Hayashizaki after the 2015 season. Grade: F

Hindsight: OF Yuya Taniguchi was drafted by the Fighters in this round. 

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Sixth round: OF Masato Kumashiro (Oji Seimei, Aichi) 

Kumashiro has the distinction of playing for two industrial league teams as a shakaijin. Kumashiro received notable playing time initially as a quick fix, where his best season was in 2012 hitting .270/.298/.287. However, his playing time continued to diminish and has been a 5th outfielder at best since. He failed to play in a single ichi-gun game in 2017.  

From 2018-2019, he has been a utility bench player capable of playing anywhere on the infield and outfield. In 2019, he had a slashline of .267/.313/.333 while mostly coming in as a replacement. He is on pace to reach domestic free agency after the 2020 season. 

Grade: C-

Hindsight: Shota Nakazaki was taken by the Carp in this round and has been a closer/reliever. P Kodai Senga, IF Taisei Makihara and C Takuya Kai were ikusei draft picks by the Hawks.  

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Overall: 

The Lions found relief pitching as well as a leadoff hitter in this class. With only two players amounting to nothing and another mostly having minimal contributions, this group ended up being a win for the team. 

Akiyama became one of the best leadoff hitters in NPB while Makita was a unique middle reliever as the league lacks submariners. The Softbank Hawks won this class as a whole, but the Lions found good value despite Oishi being a bust. Grade: A- 

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Here are the poll results from Twitter. 



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Other draft classes:

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

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