Tuesday, December 3, 2019

Four years later: Grading the Seibu Lions 2015 draft class


The Saitama Seibu Lions came off a poor second half of the season in 2015, which included a franchise-record 13-game losing streak in the midst of a cold stretch. There was one obvious flaw that the team knew and this draft had several players.

Here is what happened wit a reaction:

First round: P Shinsaburo Tawata (Fuji University, Iwate)

By taking a pitcher out of Fuji University, it was the third straight year the Lions took someone out of this school following Hotaka Yamakawa and Shuta Tonosaki. Tawata was taken without opposition even though they made an announcement the day before.

Tawata had two slow starts to his career in 2016 and 2017, but a good second half made it all promising. He had a great 2018 as the wins leader, but regressed in 2019 while being the opening day starter. One thing that has been clear of Tawata: his strikeout rate fell even though his 2018 season had wins. Spending majority of 2019 in ni-gun wasn't encouraging, but there is still hope. It's unlikely he'll be an ace, though he can still be a front end starter if he regains his condition. Otherwise, his career is just a short term flash in the pan.   Grade: B-

Hindsight: The Orix Buffaloes took Masataka Yoshida and the Baystars selected Shota Imanaga unopposed. 

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Second round: P Seiji Kawagoe (Hokkai Gakuen University, Hokkaido) 

Kawagoe was a two-way player in college and was drafted as a pitcher, despite having potential in the OF too. Injuries derailed his career early on and his jersey number reassignment showed he regressed. He is now an outfielder trying to salvage his career as a position player like Rick Ankiel.  Grade: F

Hindsight: The Fighters selected P Takayuki Kato with this pick. Ryota Sekiya was drafted by the Marines.

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Third round: P Shogo Noda, (Seino Unyu, Gifu) 

The Lions went with a shakaijin in the third round and Noda has worked his way up to the ichi-gun early. In his first year, he started to get meaningful innings when the season ended and had low leverage outings in 2017. He took a workload of medium leverage innings in 2018, but couldn't stay at the ichi-gun for long in 2019. His ERA has hovered around 3.50 while he can still serve as a lefty specialist, but he can't be a regular in the bullpen for a full season. Grade: C

Hindsight: The Eagles took Eigoro Mogi. 

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Fourth round: OF Aito Takeda (Hanasaki Tokuharu HS, Saitama) 

The Lions took a HS outfielder from their own backyard in "Aito" Takeda (formerly Otaki) as he was part of a Summer Koshien team that had a decent run. Aito earned a few games at the ichi-gun level and was hit by pitch in his first career plate appearance in 2017. 

 He saw almost no time in 2018, but was mostly on the bench in 2019 as a defensive replacement or emergency outfielder. He even had a walkoff error hit, but his bat wasn't good enough to be a starter. He will be 23 next season and with a void in the outfield, he has an opportunity to take a starting role, but if he doesn't, time could be running out on his chances. Grade: C-

Hindsight: The Baystars took C Yasutaka Tobashira with this pick. 

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Fifth round: P Tadasuke Minamikawa (JR Shikoku, Kagawa)

A shakaijin from Shikoku was taken in this round by the Lions, but Minamikawa didlittle at the ichi-gun level. From 2016-2019, he had a total of 14 ichi-gun appearances which were all in low leverage. His only appearance in 2019 featured three walks and no recorded outs with two wild pitches. The inherited runners eventually scored, leaving him with an infinity ERA for the 2019 season. He fell out of favor among the Lions pitchers and was part of the seryokugai at the end of the season. Grade: F

Hindsight: The Hiroshima Carp selected Ryoma Nishikawa in this round. Koyo Aoyagi was drafted by the Hanshin Tigers. Ryota Ishibashi was taken by the Eagles. Toshiki Abe was drafted by the Dragons. 

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Sixth round: P Keisuke Honda (Tohoku Gakuin University, Miyagi)

Honda is only the second-best known Keisuke Honda in Japan behind the midfielder of the same name. He was mostly a ni-gun starter from 2016-2018 while being productive, but couldn't crack much time at the ichi-gun minus some spot starts and relief appearances. 

 He was part of the 2016 U23 Baseball World Cup in Mexico, where Samurai Japan won. Honda also dominated the Australian Baseball League in that same year in the five starts he was given. He finally became a regular starting pitcher in 2019, recording a 6-6 record with a 4.63 ERA in 91.1 IP and 16 starts. He even started a postseason game. While inconsistent, getting a back end starter in this round is decent value. He should still contribute for 2020 and beyond.  Grade: B-

Hindsight: None for now.
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Seventh round: IF Nien Ting Wu (Daichi Kogyo University, Kagoshima)

Wu is originally from Taiwan, but moved to Japan at a young age due to his father being a player in the shakaijin leagues. He attended high school in Okayama prefecture and his father's connection to the Lions was being a teammate of now GM Hisanobu "Nabe-Q" Watanabe.

With the Lions 2016 season being all but over, Wu started games at SS at the end of of the year and had quite a few at bats. His time diminished in 2017 due to the emergence of Sosuke Genda. He saw no ichi-gun games in 2019 with Ryusei Sato leaping him on the depth chart. While in ni-gun, the Lions have used him all over the infield and outfield as a utility player, but others are blocking him from being at the top level. With Wu turning 27 next year, he doesn't have upside and is on the outside for 2020. Grade: D

Hindsight: Kohei Suzuki was taken by Orix.

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Eighth round: P Tsubasa Kokuba (Daichi Kogyo University, Kagoshima) 

Kokuba was a teammate of Wu's and an Okinawa native. He saw a short time at the ichi-gun at the end of 2016, but failed to play a game at the ichi-gun level from 2017-2018. However, he earned a late callup in 2019 where he initially saw mop up duty innings. Eventually, he took medium leverage situations if necessary and earned a win out of the bullpen. In 15 games, he finished with a 3.68 ERA in 14.2 innings. He'll have an opportunity to prove his worth next year, as it is a make or break season on his career.  Grade: C

Hindsight: None for now

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Ninth round: P Koki Fujita (Hirosaki Kogyo HS, Aomori)

Fujita was the only HS pitcher selected in this class and he spent the 2016 season recovering from an injury. He got his feet wet out of the bullpen for three ni-gun games in 2017 and his workload continued at the farm level to 2018 and 2019.  In 27 ni-gu games, Fujita recorded a 1-1 record with a 5.87 ERA as a reliever for 23 innings. He will turn 22 this month and hopes to continue developing as a project, but time is slowly diminishing if he wants to make an impact. Grade: Incomplete

Hindsight: Orix took P Ken Akama in this round, though he is currently on the Baystars. 

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Tenth round: P Naoaki Matsumoto (Kagawa Olive Guyners, Kagawa)

The Lions took a flyer on a pitcher from the Shikoku Island League as Matsumoto turned 25 a month after he was drafted. While having a great underdog story of being the last player drafted  and playing in a hospital league while helping elders to playing well in the Indy League, he did done little at the ichi-gun.

He received a call up in late 2016 for some brief appearances in Fukuoka. Matsumoto had 24 innings of mop up duty in 24 games back in 2018, but recorded a 6.75 ERA. He had another four ichi-gun games in 2019, but it didn't amount to much. Like Minamikawa, the Lions cut him after the season as part of the senryokugai. It was a great story, but he couldn't overcome all the odds. Grade: D-

Hindsight: None 

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Overall:

This class is rather average with only two starters and a part-time reliever. They're going to need to hope Aito pans out, because there is a lack of stars in this group as Tawata regressed. If Kokuba can be a bullpen regular, it wouldn't be a bad salvage. Grade: C

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