Tuesday, October 6, 2026

2026 Seibu Lions Monthly Digest: Limping into October

 

The Saitama Seibu Lions finished the final month of the season with a 10-11-1 record, going 79-60-4 overall, 1.5 games in front of the Fighters to secure second place and host the first stage of the Climax Series.

However, they also failed to keep pace with the SoftBank Hawks, finishing 11.5 games behind, giving them an extra disadvantage if they were to advance to the final stage of the Pacific League Climax Series. 

Here are some final notes on the season with a preview against the Fighters:

Taira finished with the best ERA

Kaima Taira is the first Lions pitcher to have an ERA title since Kazuhisa Inao in 1957.  A dominant full season, it's the first time he's done so as a rotation pitcher.  He is also the third to reach 10 wins with 20 saves the previous season, but the first to do so as a full time starter the following year. 

However, there is also a cost for the Lions ahead as it's expected he will be posted in this offseason. Only a pending 2027 MLB lockout could convince otherwise.   

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Is the offense gone?

It's been a strange September to say the least.  Shuta Tonosaki has been starting, which has been uncomfortable given he hasn't established anything in 2026.  

Others have lacked health, bouncing up and down the ichi-gun roster with various sickness and injuries.  Shinya Hasegawa could have had an amazing season, if healthy. He still set a new league record for most home runs in a single season by an Ikusei draft pick at 13.  

Natsuo Takizawa and Seiya Watanabe also had breaks off the team. Manaya Nishikawa had a forgettable 2026, which caused him to be benched or have a part time time instead of the everyday core player we projected coming into the year. 

Tyler Nevin was on fire when he first returned in May, but his September wasn't the greatest.  An-Ko Lin was an overall disappointment. On paper, the Lions lack overall power.  

The only silver lining is they're right in the middle of the pack with the rest of the Pacific League offensively.

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Surprise contributions mattered until the very end

Given this was a 1.5 game difference between 2nd and 3rd place, it's been surprising when a veteran has Kazunari Ishii has been useful in a pinch. Factoring a few clutch at various times, he's helped with the correct situation. 

Takuya Hiruma bought himself time being solid as a reserve outfielder when others went down.  Taiga Hirasawa had a strong May, possibly his best career season just being a regular.  

On the pitching side, Taishi Mameda and Ryosuke Moriwaki were taking significant innings with the former being an ikusei years ago while the latter recovered from a long term injury.  Much of the middle relief picked up the slack. 

But it was very fitting for Hiroshi Kaino to take the final regular season hero interview. After Hakua Iwaki was closing games early, Kaino solidified his role to take the 9th and never had to look back. 

He didn't have the most dominant outings, often allowing 1-2 base runners per game, but his job as a closer given the perspective turned out to be another difference maker. 

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Rotation carried this team, as expected

Getting an extra year of Kona Takahashi was a huge bonus when MLB teams didn't show interest and he delivered hoping to sign with someone this offseason. 

The aforementioned Taira put in a full season in the rotation. Natsuki Takeuchi had a rebound third season while Chihiro Sumida remained great.  

Even Shinya Sugai, Yutaro Watanabe and Sou Sato look promising for the future when others are gone. 

What became interesting and stressful was how manager Fumiya Nishiguchi would stretch the starter deep into games and save the bullpen. This helps Kaino out, as his workload could have been worse or even larger with close the Lions were playing games involving pitcher's duels.  

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On paper, nobody can catch the SoftBank Hawks

The Hawks right are in a league of their own.  Before interleague play, the Lions started promising against them going 8-3 head to head. However, the Hawks were missing several player early on including Logan Moinelo.  

They've turned it up and haven't looked back since May 22.  The Lions couldn't win against and finished going 3-11 against the Hawks after interleague with their overall record falling to 11-14.  

The Lions emerged from the rest of the Pacific League not having a losing record against anyone else, at worst being .500 against the Fighters. 

Takeaway interleague play and the Lions record within the Pacific League is 65-57-3.  They're slightly ahead of schedule to win enough and be good, but not great. Unfortunately everything says the Hawks are just a different tiered team. 

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Previewing the Climax Series:

There's one serious elephant in the room with the Lions: Underperforming in the postseason. 

They hold the longest Climax Series win drought with their last being in 2011 against the Fighters in Sapporo Dome, which was the final games of Yu Darvish before he went to the Texas Rangers. 

The Dragons also last won a series that season, but they made the Japan Series that year meaning the Lions continue to hold this bag.  

First round exits occurred in 2010, 2012, 2013, 2017 and 2022 under this current format.  They won the pennant in 2018 and 2019, but only physically won one game between both postseasons.

The only positive is knowing this group of players is mostly different aside from Kona Takahashi who played in 2022. 

Assuming Sumida is healthy, the three potential starters should be Taira, Sumida and Takahashi. Fighters are guaranteed to start Hiromi Itoh and Koki Kitayama in this series, but the third starter can feel like mystery because they have options and Tsuyoshi Shinjo can do unpredictable things.

Kohei Arihara, Sachiya Yamasaki and Kota Tatsu are just three of the choices, but anything can happen to even using an opener and inserting someone to keep the surprise element alive. 

Both teams finished with a dead even draw at 12-12-1, but the road team was more victorious in the series, which wouldn't bode well for the Lions. By coming in second place, the Lions also hold a tiebreaker in the even of a 1-1-1 situation. 

In history, the Lions have never lost a postseason series against the Fighters with 4 wins in 1982, 2004, 2008 and 2011. 

Overall, this series is a battle of home run hitting vs strong pitching.   The Fighters can smash the ball better than any Pacific League team.

Offensively, the Fighters have an MVP caliber player in Franmil Reyes, but others can still be a power threat with one swing.   

The starting pitchers will be tough, but it's their bullpen that can open the door. Can the Lions offense wear down a starter? Don't want the starter to go 7, which sets up an easy scenario for Shinjo.  

We will not make any predictions, but this truly has the vibes of a tossup.  This season will be called a success no matter how it ends, but getting a postseason monkey off the back wouldn't hurt.  

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