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Saturday, January 13, 2024

Seven seasons later: Grading the Seibu Lions 2016 Draft class

 


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The Saitama Seibu Lions had several pitching options to take in this draft, but there was a huge difference of opinion in the first round.  

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First round: P Tatsuya Imai (Sakushin Gakuin, Tochigi)

The Lions did not go for the hyped up Seigi Tanaka and all six B-class teams took a different player as a way of punishing those who went for him. There was no opposition for Imai's rights.

Imai's first season of professional baseball was cut short due to injury, where he suffered a shoulder problem in spring training camp. A suspension delayed his ichi-gun debut in 2018, but he made progress and continued to stay at the top level before being overwhelmed in the postseason. He put in a larger workload for 2019 while still developing, but remained inconsistent as a whole.

Despite an injury riddled 2022 season, Imai has gotten better with age and had his first 10 win season in 2023. His expectations of being an elite ace are out the window and he humbly changed his jersey number to #48, but Imai is a front end rotation starter and remains more successful than the others taken in this round. 

Grade: A-


Hindsight: Taisuke Yamaoka was taken by Orix. Haruhiro Hamaguchi taken by the Baystars. Dragons took Yuya Yanagi in a coin flip draw. Hanshin took Yusuke Ohyama. 

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Second round: P Shunta Nakatsuka (Hakuoh University, Tochigi) 

Nakatsuka failed to earn a roster spot during his five years in NPB. At one point, he almost finished a game being one out away, but three consecutive walks without a strike forced a hook. He saw two ichi-gun games in 2018 with no success and the same control problems continued to linger. 

He also received a workload in Australia with the Melbourne Aces and again struggled with control out of the bullpen. In Australia, he was known as "The Big Man" due to his size. His last ichi-gun action had six games in 2020, before the Lions cut him after the 2021 season.  Grade: F

Hindsight: Yuta Kuroki was drafted by Orix. Yota Kyoda was drafted by the Chunichi Dragons. Tomohito Sakai was taken by the Marines and since switched to the Eagles as part of free agency compensation for Minabu Mima. Kazunari Ishii has been a regular fielder for the Fighters. Seishu Hatake has contributed for the Giants. 

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Third round: IF Sosuke Genda (Toyota Motors, Aichi)

The Lions took a shakaijin in the third round and he played every single inning at the ichi-gun level for 2017. Genda became the fourth player in NPB history to accomplish this feat and he won the 2017 Pacfic League rookie of the award. He avoided any sophomore slump in 2018 and became a Best IX SS from 2018-2021. Genda has also won the Golden Glove six consecutive times from 2018-2023. 

He reached free agency in the 2023 season, but signed long term through his prime years in the winter before. A Best IX Shortstop to fill an immediate hole for years? An easy call. Grade: A+

Hindsight: None 

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Fourth round: OF Shohei Suzuki (Shizuoka HS, Shizuoka) 

The Lions took a HS outfielder as a future prospect. Suzuki made good progress in ni-gun and the Lions like what they're seeing him, hoping he can develop into a potential leadoff hitter. He earned his first ichi-gun action in 2019 as a reserve outfielder and even saw a handful of starts in right field.

His role expanded from 2020-2023, but couldn't keep his starting spot in an outfield that became a revolving door.  Injuries and ineffectiveness have kept him as a rotational player. Entering his age 26 season, time is starting to run out on having upside with a poor walk rate. Grade: D+


Hindsight: Orix took Yoshinobu Yamamoto.  Dragons took Shotaro Kasahara. 


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Fifth round: P Katsunori Hirai (Honda Suzuka, Mie)

Hirai was one of the oldest players taken in the class as he was a shakaijin playing in Mie prefecture. He cracked the ichi-gun level in May of 2017 and never had to look back, earning innings in medium leverage. For 2018. he was part of a up and down bullpen where he was prone to giving up home runs.

In 2019, he earned the setup man role and thrived under Kazuyoshi Ono. However, his arm was shot by the end of the year by overplaying him in every role from leading by 1 run to tie games or even trailing by a few runs. By appearing in 81 games, it was a new Pacific League record. 

After some regression from 2020-2021, he had a resurgence as a reliable setup man from 2022-2023. Hirai reached domestic free agency in 2023, but opted to stay with the Lions, locking up his prime. Grade A-

Hindsight: None

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Sixth round: P Ichiro Tamura (Rikkyo University, Tokyo)

Tamura has mostly taken mop up innings while staying alive at the ichi-gun level. He even earned a win and save in 2021.  Despite a slow 2022, Tamura was called up to eat low leverage innings in 2023. While his career has been walking the tightrope, he's still on the roster for 2024, that's a win to find someone remaining. Grade: B-

Hindsight: Rakuten took Yuhei Takanashi in the 9th round. Marines took Atsuki Taneichi. Baystars took Keita Sano in the 9th round. 

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Overall: 

Imai appears to be the second best high school pitcher in this class after Yamamoto, while a starting SS in Genda to help immediately and a reliever in Hirai are all positive picks. All three players had a role in the pennant success from 2018-2019.  It's one of the best classes within the last 10 years by the Lions. Grade: A


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