Thursday, January 18, 2024

Five Seasons later: Grading the 2018 Seibu Lions Draft Class

 


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The Lions came off a pennant winning season, putting them at the end of a draft and not having the same access to a drawing if it came down to one. What tactics did they go with?

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First round: P Wataru Matsumoto (Nittai University, Tokyo)

The Lions were the only team to take a college player in opening part of the first round for the draft. All 11 other teams had opposition to their picks while the Lions scooped one of the top pitchers available for the short term. 

Matsumoto has been a rotation starter since being drafted and has reached at least 100 innings in each season since 2020. He's not an ace, but a dependable mid rotation starter. Many thought he was a safe pick and if anything, he has a high floor in spite of a low ceiling. 

Grade: B+ 


Hindsight: The Tigers took Koji Chikamoto, Hawks took Hiroshi Kaino, Swallows took Noboru Shimizu

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Second round: P Yutaro Watanabe (Urawa Gakuin HS, Saitama)

Watanabe made his ichi-gun debut in 2021 and showed good promise as a starter. He was thought to be a first round draft pick if the Lions lost out on the rights to Matsumoto. 

His playing time was limited in the next two seasons, but he ended 2023 as a spot starter showing some promise in those outings. The next two years will be make or break for Watanabe as he enters his age 24-25 seasons. Can he be a rotation regular? Time will tell. 

 Grade: B

Hindsight: None (Lions were drafting at the end of this round)

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Third round: IF Kakeru Yamanobe (Mitsubishi Motors Okazaki, Aichi)

Yamanobe was hoping to continue the trend of a position player being taken in the third round in an even-numbered year as compared to his senpai (Hideto Asamura, Shogo Akiyama, Yuji Kaneko, Shuta Tonosaki, Sosuke Genda). This shakaijin failed to make an early impact in his first professional year with only one base hit in nine games. 

The Lions were hoping he could be insurance with the loss of Asamura in free agency. However, his poor hitting forces him to be replacement player at best. He's only on the roster for depth reasons. Grade: D-

Hindsight: Marines took Kazuya Ojima, Baystars took Shinichi Ohnuki, Tigers took Seiya Kinami

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Fourth round: P Kaito Awatsu (Higashi Nihon Kokusai, Fukushima)

Awatsu was a college pitcher who was inspired to pitch in a similar manner to Tetsuya Shiozaki, who is currently working in the Lions front office. He was a regular reliever in ni-gun with a 4.56 ERA in 32 games. Awatsu made his ichi-gun debut in a game I attended against the Yomiuri Giants in garbage time, allowing two runs in two innings. It was his only career ichi-gun action up to this point. 

He was unable to play another ichi-gun game with an injury in 2021.  Since 2022, the Lions currently have him under an ikusei contract. Grade: F

Hindsight: None (Lions drafted at the end of this round)


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Fifth Round: C Shoya Makino (Yugakkankoto HS, Ishikawa)

Makino made his debut in 2022 with 11 ichi-gun games. However, he has Tommy John surgery to sideline, which led to a lengthy amount of time off and he's been under an ikusei contract since 2023. Grade: Incomplete

Hindsight: Orix took Sho Gibo. 

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Sixth Round: P Ryosuke Moriwaki (Sega Sammy, Tokyo)

Moriwaki saw ichi-gun time in the first half of the 2019 as a reliever, but he couldn't hold his position as a 7th inning setup man. In an up and down year, he is most remembered for starting a bean war with the Orix Buffaloes as he hit a few batters. This includes a bases-loaded HBP which drew an Orix coach to make contact with him. 

Moriwaki has been a reliable setup reliever since 2020 where 2021 was his only down season. When the Lions need relief for the 5th to 7th innings as a bridge to the 8th, Moriwaki was called upon and delivered more times than not. 

Unfortunately, he will be sidelined for all of 2024 with a Brachial Artery patch surgery.  The Lions designated him to an ikusei contract as he recovers. 

Grade: B+

Hindsight: None (Lions drafted near the end)

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Seventh round: IF Ryusei Sato (Fuji University, Iwate)

Sato was the only rookie to make the Opening Day roster and was at the ichi-gun for most of the 2019 season. He spent his first year on the bench, playing mostly 3B as a defensive replacement, but excelled when given the chance. Sato even had a few timely hits in his young career. 

 It all blew up when he was caught breaking team COVID rules by going golfing with Makoto Aiuchi and speeding as a driver. He lost his place and fell out of favor, prompting a trade with the Fighters which brought Shota Hiranuma and Katsuhiko Kumon in return. 

With the Fighters, his biggest highlight was denying a no-hitter to Orix pitcher Ren Mukunoki, who was one strike away. With controversy with Haruka Yamada's wife slandering Sosuke Genda's family, the Lions traded him to the Fighters to bring Sato back with the team.

Sato saw the most ichi-gun time in his return season of 2023 showing the promise he he once held in 2019. His timely hit knocked the Rakuten Eagles out of the postseason and nearly won the player of the month award for reaching base nearly every game in September. 

Kumon was solid depth in 2022, before he was senryokugai in 2023 while Hiranuma is a decent bench player. With Sato as a trade piece getting other contributions while also dumping deadweight in Kimura and Yamada, this is a win for the Lions. The Lions even got to cash in on Kimura's retirement game in Tokorozawa. If Sato can earn an ichi-gun regular role for the next few years at 3B, it's icing on the cake.  Grade: B+

Hindsight: Orix took Keita Nakagawa


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Ikusei 1: P Aoi Tono (Nikkei University, Fukuoka)

Tono lived up to the billing of an ikusei pick early on. However, a career-ending injury to his ligament forced him to retire. He left the team in April of 2021. Grade: Incomplete

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Ikusei 2: P Jiyu Okubo (Hokkai HS, Hokkaido)

Okubo was picked for his size and possible upside regarding a high school pitcher. He was unable to earn a promotion as he struggled during the 2021 season with the independent BC League's Saitama Musashi Heat Bears. Okubo was a senryokugai at the conclusion of the 2021 season. Grade: Incomplete

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Ikusei 3: C Daichi Nakaguma (Tokuyama University, Yamaguchi)

Nakaguma earned a promotion to the 70-man roster in 2022 and made his debut in a July game with one at-bat as a defensive replacement. However, he couldn't earn more ichi-gun playing time in favor of Yuta Koga and Sena Tsuge when Tomoya Mori left in free agency.

The Lions designated Nakaguma as a senryokugai at the conclusion of the 2023 season and he was forced to retire from playing. Grade: Incomplete

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Overall:

If you're hitting on your first two picks, the rest can be ignored and Moriwaki staying at the ichi-gun is a success in finding three regulars.  Can Watanabe earn ichi-gun playing time? Matsumoto ended up being a safe, but reliable pick while it's even possible for Sato to become a late bloomer. There's enough success in this class to give it a positive grade even if there are no stars. Grade: B+

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Other drafts in series:








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