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Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP)

Thursday, January 25, 2024

Three Seasons later: Grading the 2020 Seibu Lions Draft class

 


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The Saitama Seibu Lions came off a pennant title, prompting to a last priority with the draft, or at least in positioning. Two players were considered the consensus best, so how did they go about it?

Here's a progress report now that we're currently three seasons into this 2020 class.

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First round: Kento Watanabe (Toin University, Kanagawa)

The Lions lost a four-way drawing for P Takahashi Hayakawa, who was thought to be the best pitcher in the class. They had no say in this with manager Hatsuhiko Tsuji being the last to put his hand in the box, therefore having no control over which ticket he'd have. 

They settled for Watanabe with the hopes he could be the heir to Hotaka Yamakawa on the infield as a slugger. 

Through three seasons, Watanabe has been a disappointment and as he enters his age 26 season, it's a make or break year determining what he is. He doesn't appear to be the power hitter nor make enough contact to be an everyday hitter. 

Grade: D

Hindsight: Hanshin Tigers landed Teruaki Sato in a four-way drawing. Orix took Shunpeita Yamashita as a backup unopposed. Fighters took Hiromi Itoh. Dragons took Hiroto Takahashi, Carp took Ryoki Kurebayashi, Baystars took Taisei Irie

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Second round: Takeru Sasaki (NTT East, Tokyo)

The Lions took a shakaijin pitcher with hopes he could contribute sooner than later. After a slow rookie season, he had promise as an innings eater in 2022 with some medium leverage outings.  

He continued to see action in 2023, but an elbow injury forced him to have Tommy John surgery. Sasaki is currently under an ikusei tier contract as he recovers. 

Grade: C

Hindsight: None (Lions drafted at the end of this round). Baystars took Shugo Maki

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Third round: Takayoshi Yamamura (Tokaidai Sagami, Kanagawa)

Yamamura was drafted with the projection of a possible leadoff hitter for the future. 

He made his ichi-gun debut in 2023 with an injury to Sosuke Genda, but is still an unfinished project. He enters his age 22 season this year and could make strides if he beats out his competition.

Grade: B

Hindsight: Carp took Haruki Ohmichi

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Fourth round: Gakuto Wakabayashi (Komazawa University, Tokyo)

Wakabayashi looked like a promising player in his rookie 2021 season. However, an injury sidelined him and he wasn't able to repeat the early success. Time is starting to run out on if he can be a star they thought he had the potential to be.

He has yet to play even 50 ichi-gun games in a regular season.

Grade: C-

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Fifth round: Ren Omagari (Fukuoka University, Fukuoka)

Omagari came from rubber ball when drafted where the Lions saw a project. He's made a handful of appearances in low leverage, but has yet to really breakout or earn regular ichi-gun time. Like the other college players, time is running out.

Grade: D

Hindsight: Tigers took Shoki Murakami

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Sixth round: "Brandon" Taiga Tysinger (Hokkaido Nogyo Okhotsk, Hokkaido)

Like Wakabayashi, Tysinger had early promise in 2021 and came in as an injury replacement. He failed to capitalize and has been a ni-gun regular ever since with no ichi-gun appearances in 2022 or 2023. 

The Lions dropped Brandon to ikusei status at the conclusion of the 2023 season. With this uphill battle, it's not looking good.

Grade: D

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Seventh Round: Yuta Nakamigawa (Osaka Toin, Osaka)

At first reaction, Nakamigawa's roots with Osaka Toin brought excitement to Lions fans to continue the pipeline with this school. 

However, Nakamigawa was dropped to ikusei status after the 2023 season. He only appeared in 11 ni-gun games and participated in more third team games with independent clubs and university squads last season.

Unfortunately, his odds of earning his way back are slim as he was the last player taken in the main draft. 

Grade: D

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Ikusei Round 1: Yuto Akagami (Tohoku Koeki University, Yamagata)

Akagami earned a promotion to the 70-man roster in 2022, but an elbow injury required a surgery and he failed to make his ichi-gun debut. 

Having spent most of 2023 recovering, he only appeared in one ni-gun game and was dropped back down to ikusei status for 2024. 

Grade: Incomplete

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Ikusei Round 2: Shinya Hasegawa (Tsuruga Kehi, Fukui)

Hasegawa's career started on a rough note when incorrectly using social media leading to a suspension, but he earned a promotion to the 70-man roster in 2022. For an ikusei, he's received a decent amount of playing time and had four home runs in 2023, one of them being a walkoff against the Chunichi Dragons. He could still develop into something at age 22 

Grade: C+

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Ikusei Round 3: Joseph Ken Miyamoto (Nagoya Gakuin University, Aichi)

Miyamoto is an outfielder with Ghanaian descent with a Japanese mother. He was from a lower tier baseball university team. 

In three seasons, he has been a ni-gun player for a handful of games and the Lions had to renew his ikusei contract last offseason. His chances of being called up are thin.

Grade: Incomplete

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Ikusei Round 4: Taishi Mameda (Urasa Jitsugyo Gakuen, Saitama)

Mameda was taken for his fastball and it didn't hurt he has local ties to Saitama Prefecture. 

For 2023, Mameda earned a promotion in July and even saw a decent amount of ichi-gun action for the second half. He even earned a save in 16 games with a 0.59 ERA. If things go right, he could be a useful middle reliever. 

Grade: B+

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Ikusei Round 5: Yoshinobu Mizukami (Shikoku Gakuin University, Kagawa)

Named after former Yomiuri Giants player Yoshinobu Takahashi, Mizukami was born during the former's rookie season.

Mizukami was the first ikusei from this class to earn a promotion during the 2021 season as a bright spot on a last place Lions team. He was able to build off of this and become an All Star and Rookie of the year for 2022 breaking plenty of glass ceilings for an ikusei. In a season where the Lions barely made A-class, Mizukami pitching in the 7th inning as a reliable setup man played a role in this.

His pitching regressed in 2023 with lower velocity and fewer innings, but finished the year on the ichi-gun hoping to be ready for 2024. 

Even if his career is a flash in the pan, the Lions already found success with Mizukami.

Grade: A-

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Overall: D+

This Lions class has a downward trend for their college players with a few out of high school who still have upside. It's possible Mameda and Mizukami could salvage a below average group, but only time will tell how these players age. 

It already hurts Watanabe is on pace to be a bust.

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Other drafts in series:





2019

2021

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