About: Why the Lions?

Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP)

Sunday, January 28, 2024

Matsui's wait to MLB is rewarded

 


Yuki Matsui took the long way to MLB. 

Instead of early domination and a posting, he had to wait for nine years of service time to reach international free agent rights. It's the same path Kodai Senga was forced to reach given he was on a team that never posted a player.

Matsui, 28, wanted to play in MLB several years ago with hopes of being posted, but he didn't let the waiting time hamper him. He said he needed to improve his skills to be ready for the jump across the Pacific Ocean. 

"It wasn't really much of a wait for me to come here, Matsui said through interpreter Shinjo in a video press conference. "I mentioned [to the team] that in wanted to pitch [in MLB] back in 2019, but I really had to get ready and I had to hone my draft in order to be a player to be wanted by these big league teams. Throughout these years, I was working on my craft and building my body. It wasn't a long wait for me as I was just focusing on baseball everyday."

He officially signed with the San Diego Padres in December, being one of four Japanese players making the switch from NPB to MLB.

What helped the process in picking the Padres? None other than having Samurai Japan teammate Yu Darvish being there.

"Darvish is a pretty big presence for me," Matsui said  "It will be a big plus being able to play baseball [with him] and live close to him."

His contract with the Padres is rather fair for the market as a relief pitcher. 

On the surface, it's five years for the cost of $28 million. However, there are plenty of incentives and even an opt out and team option available.

If Matsui does not have Tommy John or an elbow injury that causes more than 130 consecutive days on the injured list from 2024-2025, he has the right to opt out after three years and making a combined $14.5 million.

In the event a major elbow injury happens, Matsui's $7 million 2028 salary becomes a conditional team option with potential to become a player option.

There's also an incentive based kicker where he can increase his salary each year depending on games finished, which creates the motivation to become the team's closer.

Matsui humbly brought up how he hadn't pitched a single MLB game yet and didn't expect to close games immediately. He even spoke with players who came from MLB to NPB on needing to relearn things in baseball in this transition. 

Despite winning a World Baseball Classic championship with Samurai Japan, Matsui expressed disappointment in himself as he didn't perform on the biggest stage in favor of other pitchers and didn't appear in the semi finals or finals against Mexico nor the USA. 

"Beyond the great experience with that awesome team to win the WBC, for myself I wasn't able to perform as I wanted to, Matsui said. "I turned that into motivation. I'm motivated to go to the States and put on my best."

Matsui was originally a first round draft pick by the Rakuten Eagles in 2013 and he made the transition to closer in 2015 out of necessity due to the team having thin bullpen depth. This call by then-manager Dave Okubo worked wonders as he thrived in the 9th inning. 

Matsui became the youngest player who have 200 saves in NPB with a career ERA of 2.40 and 1.11 WHIP. 

The Padres situation is a strange transition. Last offseason, they proved to be one of the bigger spenders going all-in and signing massive contracts with Xander Bogaerts in free agency and large extensions to Manny Machado and Yu Darvish. They even had Juan Soto acquired by trade during 2022. 

The 2023 Season flopped with unclutch hitting and wasting a Cy Young season from Blake Snell. 

Their run differential reflected they should've been better, but they barely finished above .500 at 82-80 with most of those wins coming too late. 

Manager Bob Melvin left the team for the San Francisco Giants, but the larger issue is within the ownership structure. It was revealed the Padres had to take a loan to cover expenses finishing the 2023 season due to the Regional Sports Network (RSN) deal at Bally Sports collapsing in the middle of the year. Their TV rights being dropped hurt their revenue and the payroll shedding is reflective of this going into 2024.

Padres owner passed away in November, making the structure going forward uncertain. 

San Diego is in an odd middle ground where they can't rebuild when Bogaerts and Machado exist on the roster, yet they don't look good on paper to take that step and be a contender. 

For Matsui, the bullpen position is open as 2023 closer Josh Hader signed a free agent deal with the Houston Astros. 

Former Softbank Hawks reliever Robert Suarez has been with the Padres since 2022 and could be an option as is Tom Cosgrove. 

Among other competition, the Padres also signed Woo-suk Go from the KBO's LG Twins via the posting system, who also has closing experience. 

The expectations for this team are in the middle, but the opportunity for Matsui to thrive in the bullpen and be a main reliever from setup to even closer role is there.

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Saturday, January 27, 2024

One season later: Progress Report on 2022 Seibu Lions Draft Class

 

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We conclude our Seibu Lions draft series dating back to 2014 with a brief look at the 2022 Draft Class.

Like the last few, this is a progress report and the jury is still out on all these picks. 

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First round: Takuya Hiruma (Waseda University, Tokyo)

Hiruma was thought to be the best pure hitter in this class and the Lions earned his rights unopposed, even as expected at least one or two teams to contest this. For his rookie season, he had flashes while earning his first call up closer to the start of summer. 

He has plenty of room to grow, but has the traits of a five-tool player.

Grade: A-

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Second Round: Yudai Furukawa (Saiki Kakujo, Oita)

Furukawa was viewed as an athlete who needed to bulk up since coming out of high school. He spent the 2023 season training as he gained five kilograms. 

Furukawa only appeared in one ni-gun game as he trained mostly with the third team unit. 

If things project right, he could be a starting outfielder in a few years.

Grade: B+

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Third round: Kaito Noda (Kyushu Kokusai, Fukuoka)

Noda was a two-way player taken as a catcher out of high school. A U18 Samurai Japan member, Noda showed good footwork as a catcher to draw attention of the scouts. He appeared in 15 ni-gun games for 2023 and hopes to build off of it.

A long term project, he could become a starting catcher in a few years. 

Grade: B

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Fourth Round: Minato Aoyama (Asia University, Tokyo)

Aoyama was given a significant amount of playing time for a rookie. Manager Kazuo Matsui had him make his ichi-gun debut in a save situation on Opening Day in 2023, where he couldn't close. 

He lost his closer role despite earning high leverage situations through camp and ended the year in medium and low leverage. 

In 39 games, he recorded a 2.96 ERA in 45.2 of innings of work. The jury is still out, it's a matter of if he can learn from his rookie season going forward. 

Grade: B-

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Fifth round: Haruto Yamada (Ohmi, Shiga)

Yamada was a 2021 Koshien tournament darling who took his school to the semifinals. For 2023, he only recorded three ni-gun games and hopes to develop his body and pitches entering 2024.

It's possible the Lions see him as a future relief pitcher. 

Grade: C+

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Sixth round: Ryosuke Kodama (Osaka Gas, Osaka)

Kodama was forced to play very early into the 2023 season with Sosuke Genda injured at shortstop. A shakaijin, Kodama showed his defense is solid, but his bat was lacking to be an everyday ichi-gun player.

At worst, the Lions found a defensive replacement, which is good for the sixth round. 

Grade: B-

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Ikusei Round 1: Kazuki Nomura (Ishikawa Million Stars, Ishikawa)

Nomura stayed with the third team for the 2023 season in an underwhelming first year. He appeared in only four ni-gun games.

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Ikusei Round 2: Montell Higuma (Tokushima Indigo Socks, Tokushima)

Higuma saw 21 ni-gun games for 2023 and would be closer to earning a promotion compared to some players. 

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Ikusei Round 3: Daiki Miura (Chukyo University, Aichi)

Miura pitched in 13 ni-gun games with minimal impact. 

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Ikusei Round 4: Ryosuke Koresawa (Hosei University, Tokyo)

Koresawa was a career backup catcher in the Tokyo Big6.  He appeared in 26 ni-gun games for 2023. He has an uphill battle given the catcher position on the Lions. 

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Overall: B

It's too early to make any calls on these players after one season. But like most drafts, it will hinge on Hiruma, the first round pick who has very high expectations to become a starting outfielder.

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Other drafts in series:








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Friday, January 26, 2024

Two seasons later: Progress Report on 2021 Lions draft

 


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As we move to more recent draft classes, none of these grades are written in stone with the exception of two players who are no longer with the Saitama Seibu Lions.

Much of this is based on potential given many of these players are not even 25 years old. 

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First round: Chihiro Sumida (Nippon Nishi Kogyo, Fukuoka)

After much anticipation, the Lions won the draft rights to Chihiro Sumida with three other teams. They even had Mitsuo Iida, a managing director take the drawing. 

Sumida has a rough rookie season after a strong debut. However, he rebounded nicely in 2023 and can still project to be an ace of the rotation. He barely came up short of 10 wins, but nearly having one strikeout per inning gives the team hope for optimism. 

Grade: A

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Second round: Shunsuke Sato (Tsukuba University, Ibaraki)

If the Lions lost on the rights for Sumida, they would have likely nominated Sato as their fallback option. Instead, he went unclaimed in the first round and the Lions were able to snag him in Round 2. 

After getting a taste of ichi-gun action in 2022, he was a reliable setup reliever for 2023 and could easily become a closer in the future. He had the makeup of a potential first round pick, but the Lions getting him is bonus.

Grade: A-

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Third round: Yuto Koga (Chuo University, Tokyo)

Koga was seen as an insurance pick with the potential loss of Tomoya Mori in free agency. Once Mori left the team after 2022, Koga won the starting catcher position and showed great pop speed in his defense.

With Ginjiro Sumitani back with the Lions, he can only continue to elevate his game learning from one of the best.

Grade: B+ 

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Fourth round: Shinnosuke Hada (Hachioji Gakuen, Tokyo)

Hada was drafted for his potential to throw hard combined with a versatile arsenal of pitches. 

In two of years of ni-gun baseball, he has seen extended time in starts and long relief. It's possible he could be ready in 1-2 years as an ichi-gun pitcher. 

Grade: B+

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Fifth round: Masaya Kuroda (Hachinohe Kogyo, Aomori)

Like Hada, Kuroda was also drafted out of high school for his hard throwing abilities and has seen more outings in ni-gun as a starter. He enters his age 20 season in 2024 with the hopes of being a rotation candidate two years from now. 

Grade: B

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Sixth round: Seigo Nakayama (Hakuoh University, Tochigi)

Nakayama made his debut in May of 2022, but has a brutal error where he failed to catch a ball thrown by pitcher Katsunori Hirai. This led to a game losing two runs later that inning and he never recovered from it, going 0-3 in this outing.

With an ineffective ni-gun season having an OPS under .600, the Lions viewed him as expendable and put him on senryokugai after two seasons. 

Grade: F

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Ikusei Round 1: Takeru Furuichi (Tokushima Indigo Socks, Tokushima)

Furuichi earned a promotion to the 70-man roster in 2023 and appeared in 29 ichi-gun games as a reserve catcher. He recorded a paltry eight hits in 50 at bats, but earning a promotion in an age 21 season is always a plus.

Grade: C+

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Ikusei Round 2: Natsuo Takizawa (Sekine Gakuen, Niigata)

Takizawa was the first ikusei to earn a promotion from this class from the middle of 2022. One of the shorter players on the team who can still grow, Takizawa created an early spark as a base runner and the Lions won multiple games during his first week at the ichi-gun level. 

After appearing in 48 ichi-gun games in 2022, he regressed in 2023 with only 16 appearances at the top level.

Grade: B

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Ikusei Round 3: Shinya Sugai (Yamamoto Gakuen, Yamagata)

Sugai was drafted for being a finesse pitcher with good breaking balls, specifically his slider.

In 2023, he made 15 ni-gun starts with a 4-2 record and a 3.12 ERA in 66.1 innings of work. It's possible he could earn a promotion down the line.

Grade: Satisfactory

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Ikusei Round 4: Keishin Kawamura (Kokugakuin University, Tokyo)

Kawamura only appeared in 31 ni-gun games for 2022, but the strangest bizarre moment came in June after he requested his release for personal reasons. 

It was revealed later that month he and his family were the beneficiaries of improper benefits (bribery) which led to his brother being arrested. Kawamura returned any benefits and wasn't arrested, but he felt his damage was already done and chose to move forward in his career. 

Grade: Incomplete

===

Overall: A

It's possible the first three players in this class could remain as ichi-gun regular for a long time if they keep this up. 

Even the ikusei and high school draft picks still have potential to do some damage down the road. If anyone else becomes an ichi-gun player, it could be one of the greatest classes in a long time to have quantity and quality. 

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Other drafts in series:







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Thursday, January 25, 2024

Three Seasons later: Grading the 2020 Seibu Lions Draft class

 


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The Saitama Seibu Lions came off a pennant title, prompting to a last priority with the draft, or at least in positioning. Two players were considered the consensus best, so how did they go about it?

Here's a progress report now that we're currently three seasons into this 2020 class.

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First round: Kento Watanabe (Toin University, Kanagawa)

The Lions lost a four-way drawing for P Takahashi Hayakawa, who was thought to be the best pitcher in the class. They had no say in this with manager Hatsuhiko Tsuji being the last to put his hand in the box, therefore having no control over which ticket he'd have. 

They settled for Watanabe with the hopes he could be the heir to Hotaka Yamakawa on the infield as a slugger. 

Through three seasons, Watanabe has been a disappointment and as he enters his age 26 season, it's a make or break year determining what he is. He doesn't appear to be the power hitter nor make enough contact to be an everyday hitter. 

Grade: D

Hindsight: Hanshin Tigers landed Teruaki Sato in a four-way drawing. Orix took Shunpeita Yamashita as a backup unopposed. Fighters took Hiromi Itoh. Dragons took Hiroto Takahashi, Carp took Ryoki Kurebayashi, Baystars took Taisei Irie

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Second round: Takeru Sasaki (NTT East, Tokyo)

The Lions took a shakaijin pitcher with hopes he could contribute sooner than later. After a slow rookie season, he had promise as an innings eater in 2022 with some medium leverage outings.  

He continued to see action in 2023, but an elbow injury forced him to have Tommy John surgery. Sasaki is currently under an ikusei tier contract as he recovers. 

Grade: C

Hindsight: None (Lions drafted at the end of this round). Baystars took Shugo Maki

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Third round: Takayoshi Yamamura (Tokaidai Sagami, Kanagawa)

Yamamura was drafted with the projection of a possible leadoff hitter for the future. 

He made his ichi-gun debut in 2023 with an injury to Sosuke Genda, but is still an unfinished project. He enters his age 22 season this year and could make strides if he beats out his competition.

Grade: B

Hindsight: Carp took Haruki Ohmichi

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Fourth round: Gakuto Wakabayashi (Komazawa University, Tokyo)

Wakabayashi looked like a promising player in his rookie 2021 season. However, an injury sidelined him and he wasn't able to repeat the early success. Time is starting to run out on if he can be a star they thought he had the potential to be.

He has yet to play even 50 ichi-gun games in a regular season.

Grade: C-

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Fifth round: Ren Omagari (Fukuoka University, Fukuoka)

Omagari came from rubber ball when drafted where the Lions saw a project. He's made a handful of appearances in low leverage, but has yet to really breakout or earn regular ichi-gun time. Like the other college players, time is running out.

Grade: D

Hindsight: Tigers took Shoki Murakami

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Sixth round: "Brandon" Taiga Tysinger (Hokkaido Nogyo Okhotsk, Hokkaido)

Like Wakabayashi, Tysinger had early promise in 2021 and came in as an injury replacement. He failed to capitalize and has been a ni-gun regular ever since with no ichi-gun appearances in 2022 or 2023. 

The Lions dropped Brandon to ikusei status at the conclusion of the 2023 season. With this uphill battle, it's not looking good.

Grade: D

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Seventh Round: Yuta Nakamigawa (Osaka Toin, Osaka)

At first reaction, Nakamigawa's roots with Osaka Toin brought excitement to Lions fans to continue the pipeline with this school. 

However, Nakamigawa was dropped to ikusei status after the 2023 season. He only appeared in 11 ni-gun games and participated in more third team games with independent clubs and university squads last season.

Unfortunately, his odds of earning his way back are slim as he was the last player taken in the main draft. 

Grade: D

===

Ikusei Round 1: Yuto Akagami (Tohoku Koeki University, Yamagata)

Akagami earned a promotion to the 70-man roster in 2022, but an elbow injury required a surgery and he failed to make his ichi-gun debut. 

Having spent most of 2023 recovering, he only appeared in one ni-gun game and was dropped back down to ikusei status for 2024. 

Grade: Incomplete

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Ikusei Round 2: Shinya Hasegawa (Tsuruga Kehi, Fukui)

Hasegawa's career started on a rough note when incorrectly using social media leading to a suspension, but he earned a promotion to the 70-man roster in 2022. For an ikusei, he's received a decent amount of playing time and had four home runs in 2023, one of them being a walkoff against the Chunichi Dragons. He could still develop into something at age 22 

Grade: C+

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Ikusei Round 3: Joseph Ken Miyamoto (Nagoya Gakuin University, Aichi)

Miyamoto is an outfielder with Ghanaian descent with a Japanese mother. He was from a lower tier baseball university team. 

In three seasons, he has been a ni-gun player for a handful of games and the Lions had to renew his ikusei contract last offseason. His chances of being called up are thin.

Grade: Incomplete

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Ikusei Round 4: Taishi Mameda (Urasa Jitsugyo Gakuen, Saitama)

Mameda was taken for his fastball and it didn't hurt he has local ties to Saitama Prefecture. 

For 2023, Mameda earned a promotion in July and even saw a decent amount of ichi-gun action for the second half. He even earned a save in 16 games with a 0.59 ERA. If things go right, he could be a useful middle reliever. 

Grade: B+

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Ikusei Round 5: Yoshinobu Mizukami (Shikoku Gakuin University, Kagawa)

Named after former Yomiuri Giants player Yoshinobu Takahashi, Mizukami was born during the former's rookie season.

Mizukami was the first ikusei from this class to earn a promotion during the 2021 season as a bright spot on a last place Lions team. He was able to build off of this and become an All Star and Rookie of the year for 2022 breaking plenty of glass ceilings for an ikusei. In a season where the Lions barely made A-class, Mizukami pitching in the 7th inning as a reliable setup man played a role in this.

His pitching regressed in 2023 with lower velocity and fewer innings, but finished the year on the ichi-gun hoping to be ready for 2024. 

Even if his career is a flash in the pan, the Lions already found success with Mizukami.

Grade: A-

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Overall: D+

This Lions class has a downward trend for their college players with a few out of high school who still have upside. It's possible Mameda and Mizukami could salvage a below average group, but only time will tell how these players age. 

It already hurts Watanabe is on pace to be a bust.

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Other drafts in series:





2019

2021

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Tuesday, January 23, 2024

Four seasons later: Grading the 2019 Seibu Lions Draft

 


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First round: P Tetsu Miyagawa (Toshiba, Kanagawa)

The Lions attempted to go for Roki Sasaki with three other teams, but they zero control over the drawing as any representative would be the last to put their hand in the box. 

As Tadahito Iguchi drew the winning ticket for the Chiba Lotte Marines, the Lions had to settle for plan B which Miyagawa's rights were contested with the Yomiuri Giants. 

On the field, Miyagawa struggled to keep an ichi-gun job from location and more. He took a lot of low to medium leverage innings in 2020, but couldn't thrive off of it. His best year was in 2022 when the Lions had a loaded bullpen to take them into A-class.

In 2023, the Lions tried to use him as a spot starter where he had only one good outing. He was traded to the Yakult Swallows shortly after the Active Player Draft for Hiyu Motoyama. 

With the Lions not finding a role for him as he enters his Age 29 season, it was best to cut their losses and move forward.  It wouldn't be surprising if the Lions designated him as the second of two players required in the 2023 Active Player Draft. This is the price they pay for losing out on Sasaki's rights. 

Grade: D-

Hindsight: Hiroshima Carp took Masato Morishita unopposed. Orix took Hiroya Miyagi as their third choice. Rakuten took Hiroto Kobukata as their second choice. 

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Second round: P Shota Hamaya (Mitsubishi Hitachi, Kanagawa)

Drafting at the end, the Lions took a shakaijin with the hopes Hamaya could help right away. 

He got a taste of action in 2020 and 2021 as a reliever and spot starter, but failed to take the next step. Hamaya has been buried in ni-gun for the last two seasons, one of which where he came off surgery. 

Grade: F

Hindsight: Lions were the last pick of this round and couldn't take anyone, but Orix ended up with Kotaro Kurebayashi. 

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Third round: P Koki Matsuoka (Saitama Musashi Heat Bears, Saitama)

The Lions reached into the independent BC League for their third round pick.  Matsuoka saw a taste of ichi-gun action in 2020 and 2021 in mop up duty, but couldn't earn more time. 

At the conclusion of the 2022 season, he was selected by the Fighters in the inaugural Active Player Draft and failed to play an ichi-gun game in 2023. After staying in ni-gun for the entire year, he's currently under an ikusei contract with the Fighters. 

Grade: F

Hindsight: Marines took Akito Takabe

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Fourth Round: IF Ryota Kawano (Kyushu Gakuin, Kumamoto)

Kawano has only played five ichi-gun games in 2022. He has one sacrifice fly and one base hit to his name.

With only 41 ni-gun games in 2023, time could be running out with the Lions taking a infielder in the most recent draft. 

Grade: D

Hindsight: Lions were drafting at the end of this round.  Swallows took Hiroki Ohnishi. 

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Fifth Round: C Sena Tsuge (Honda Suzuki, Mie)

The Lions again went the shakaijin route and has Tsuge lined up with the possibility of losing Tomoya Mori in the future.  

Tsuge is a solid backup catcher when you value his defense. However, he lost the starting job to someone younger. 

Grade: C+

Hindsight: Dragons took Yuki Okabayashi

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Sixth round: P Hiroki Inoue (Nichidaisan, Tokyo)

Inoue was thought to have upside for his fastball and high velocity. He earned four games at ichi-gun in 2021, but never made an appearance since. 

Poor performance in 24 ni-gun games for 2023 has dropped him to Ikusei status.

Grade: D-

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P Towa Uema (Tokushima Indigo Socks, Tokushima) 

Uema made his debut in 2021 as a necessity due to no foreign pitchers on the roster at the start of the season. He earned one win and appeared in five games total with spot starts included.

However, Uema has surgery on his elbow after the season and has remained an ikusei pitcher since 2022. The Lions were forced to senryokugai him after 2023, but he is still an ikusei entering 2024. 

Grade: D


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IF/OF Junichiro Kishi (Tokushima Indigo Socks, Tokushima)

With the team having a lack of depth in the outfield, Kishi was a starting outfielder in 2021 with 100 games and 80 of them being starts, earning his own ouenka song. 

However, his bat is not enough to be an everyday player and he was used in rotation for 2022-2023. He's decent enough as depth, but given he was much older coming in out of the Shikoku Island League, there is no upside.

Grade: C

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P Toshihiro Idei (Kanagawa University, Kanagawa) 

Drafted for his athleticism, Idei never earned a promotion to the 70-man roster and was given a fourth year for a chance at redemption in 2023. The Lions officially put him on senryokugai one last time and he remains with the team as a farm staff member for batting practice and scorekeeping. 

Grade: Incomplete

===

Overall: F

This is a class you don't want to look at. The Lions came in last place for 2021, a first since 1979, their inaugural season in Tokorozawa moving from Fukuoka. Much of it had to do with this class failing to support with their shakaijin draft picks. Even Miyagawa faltered in games and stayed in ni-gun that year, where they finished in last by one game. 

When Kishi and Tsuge are the best players in this group, it's awful. 


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Other drafts in series:








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Saturday, January 20, 2024

2024 Seibu Lions salary list

 


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In November and December of 2023, the Saitama Seibu Lions and all other NPB teams did their salary negotiations with all players for the following season. 

Here are the reported figures for the 2024 Seibu Lions: 

Legend: 

^ - Raise from 2023

|v| - Paycut from 2023

= - Same wages


AVG/OBP/SLG for position players. 
 

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Pitchers: 


Kona Takahashi: ¥165 million, ^ by ¥85 million; (10-8), 2.21 ERA in 23 games, 155 innings

Kaima Taira: ¥250 million ^ by ¥80 million; (11-7), 2.40 ERA, in 23 games,  150 innings

Tatsushi Masuda: ¥240 million |v| by ¥60 million; (4-4), 19 saves, 5.45 ERA in 40 games, 44 innings 

Masuda is in the final year of a four-year contract 

Katsunori Hirai:  ¥90 million ^ by ¥10 million; (4-3), 28 holds, 2.55 ERA in 54 games, 53 innings  (signed multi-year contract to return)

Tatsuya Imai: ¥80 million, ^ by ¥35 million, (10-5), 2.30 ERA in 19 games, 133 innings

Wataru Matsumoto: ¥58 million, |v| by ¥7 million, (6-8), 3.47 ERA in 20 games, 116.2 innings

Chihiro Sumida: ¥40 million, ^ by ¥20 million; (9-10), 3.44 ERA in 22 games, 131 innings

Yoshinobu Mizukami: ¥33 million |v| by ¥7 million, (0-2), 2.12 ERA, 5 HLD, 1 SV in 23 games, 17 innings

Kaito Yoza: ¥30 million |v| by ¥3 million (2-6), 3.69 ERA in 15 games, 83 innings 

Shunsuke Sato: ¥30 million ^ by ¥14 million; (1-2), 2.50 ERA, 18 HLD in 48 games, 39.2 innings

Keisuke Honda: ¥27 million [v] by ¥3 million; (0-1), 2 HLD, 1.56 ERA in 25 games, 34.2 innings

Minato Aoyama: ¥14 million, ^ by ¥4 million, (0-1), 3 SV, 2.96 ERA in 39 games, 45.2 innings

Ichiro Tamura: ¥13 million ^ by ¥3 million; (2-1), 6 HLD, 1 SV, 1.52 ERA in 24 games, 23.2 innings

Yutaro Watanabe: ¥8.2 million [v] by ¥300 million ; (1-0), 0.82 ERA in 2 games, 11 innings

Ren Omagari: ¥8.2 million ^ by ¥200K; (0-0), 5.40 ERA in 10 games, 10 innings

Shota Hamaya: ¥7.5 million [v] by ¥2.5 million; (7-6), 4.68 ERA in 17 ni-gun games

Taishi Mameda: ¥7.5 million ^ by ¥2.8 million; (0-0), 1 SV, 6 HLD, 0.59 ERA in 16 games, 15.1 innings

Haruto Yamada: ¥7 million, =; (0-0), 5.87 ERA in three ni-gun games

Masaya Kuroda: ¥6.5 million =; (3-3), 3.93 ERA in 13 ni-gun games

Shinnosuke Hada: ¥6 million =; (1-2), 2.15 ERA in eight ni-gun games

Yuto Akagami: ¥4.7 million =; (0-0), 0.00 ERA in one ni-gun game

Hiroshi Kaino: ¥40 million ^ by ¥4 million; (3-1), 2 SV, 8 HLD, 2.53 ERA in 46 games, 42.2 innings with Softbank Hawks

Yuta Nakamura: ¥10 million, (0-0), 1.29 ERA in five games with Hiroshima Carp 

Albert Abreu: ¥150 million - 45 games with New York Yankees in MLB

Bo Takahashi: Unreported (Made ¥35 million in 2023), (0-1), 3.00 ERA in 28 games, 36 innings

Jefry Yan: ¥75 million - 6 games with Miami Marlins affiliate in AAA

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Infielders:

Sosuke Genda: ¥300 million =; .257/.307/.300, 0 HR in 100 games

Genda signed a five-year extension through 2027

Takeya Nakamura: ¥150 million |v| by ¥50 million; .258/.389/.481, 17 HR in 88 games

Shuta Tonosaki: ¥160 million =; .260/.338/.400, 12 HR in 136 games

Tonosaki signed a four-year contract through 2026

Ryusei Sato: ¥22 million ^ by ¥11 million; .263/.390/.378, 3 HR in 91 games

Shota Hiranuma: ¥19 million ^ by ¥4 million; .245/.284/.363, 2 HR in 67 games 

Naomasa Yohkawa: ¥18 million |v| by ¥4 million; .167/.286/.292, 1 HR in nine games

Kento Watanabe: ¥16 million ^ by ¥4 million; .214/.273/.375, 6 HR in 57 games 

Ryosuke Kodama ¥13 million ^ by ¥3.5 million; .221/.244/.279, 0 HR in 56 games

Wataru Takamatsu: ¥10.6 million =; .000/.000/.000 in 2 games

Takamatsu was acquired in mid season trade with Chunichi Dragons for Seiji Kawagoe

Kakeru Yamanobe: ¥9.7 million [v] by ¥1 million ; .205/.319/.295, 0 HR in 35 games

Takayoshi Yamamura: ¥8 million ^ by ¥1 million; .286/.333/.714, 2 HR in four games

Natsuo Takizawa: ¥7.3 million |v| by ¥200K; .188/.188/.375, 1 HR in 16 games

Ryota Kawano: ¥6.5 million |v| by ¥1 million; .182/.258/.300, 3 HR in 41 ni-gun games


Jesus Aguilar: ¥210 million - 36 games with Oakland A's in MLB 

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Outfielders: 

Takumi Kuriyama: ¥108 million |v| by ¥71 million; .217/.346/.376, 7 HR in 77 games

Yuji Kaneko: ¥70 million =; .179/.222/.226, 0 HR in 47 games

Shohei Suzuki: ¥23 million ^ by ¥8 million; .240/.286/.289, 0 HR in 72 games

Junichiro Kishi: ¥16.5 million ^ by ¥2 million ; .209/.269/.288, 3 HR in 61 games

Takuya Hiruma: ¥16 million ^ by ¥6 million; .232/.280/.293, 2 HR in 56 games

Seiji Kawagoe: ¥14 million ^ by ¥2 million ; .259/.346/.381, 2 HR in 50 games

Gakuto Wakabayashi: ¥12.2 million =; .244/.261/.356, 1 HR in 36 games 

Manaya Nishikawa: ¥11 million ^ by ¥3 million ; .227/.269/.299, 1 HR in 41 games

Wataru Takagi: ¥7 million |v| by ¥500K ; .158/.158/.158, 0 HR in five games

Shinya Hasegawa: ¥11 million ^ by ¥4.3 million; .222/.276/.339, 4 HR in 59 games 


Yudai Furukawa: ¥7.5 million =; .000/.000/.000 in one ni-gun game

Franchy Cordero: ¥100 million - 24 games with New York Yankees in MLB

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Catchers: 

Yuto Koga: ¥28 million ^ by ¥13 million; .218/.294/.301, 2 HR in 100 games

Sena Tsuge: ¥22 million ^ by ¥2 million; .184/.214/.216, 0 HR in 59 games

Masatoshi Okada: ¥10 million |v| by ¥20 million; No games registered coming off surgery

Takeru Furuichi: ¥7 million ^ by ¥2.3 million; .160/.208/.160, 0 HR in 29 games, earned promotion from ikusei 

Kaito Noda: ¥6.5 million =; .121/.151/.121, 0 HR in 15 ni-gun games

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Ikusei: 

Towa Uema: ¥5 million =; (1-2), 9.95 ERA in three ni-gun games

Ryosuke Moriwaki: ¥36 million |v| by ¥4 million, (2-1), 12 HLD, 1.95 ERA, 3 SV in 31 games, 27.2 innings

Moriwaki will miss the 2024 season coming off an artery surgery. 

Takeru Sasaki: ¥20 million =; (0-1), 0.87 ERA, 4 HLD in 21 games, 20.2 innings

Sasaki dropped to Ikusei status

Hiroki Inoue: ¥5 million [v] by ¥400K, (1-1), 4.62 ERA in 24 ni-gun games

Inoue dropped to Ikusei status 

Brandon Tysinger: ¥6 million [v] by ¥1 million ; .270/.318/.402, 4 HR in 37 ni-gun games 

Brandon dropped to Ikusei status

Shoya Makino: ¥6.6 million |v| by ¥800K ; .221/.276/.326, 2 HR in 42 ni-gun games

Makino dropped to Ikusei status and is recovering from surgery. 

Sho Ito: ¥5 million [v] by ¥300K; (2-0), 3.76 ERA in 30 ni-gun games

Yuta Nakamigawa: ¥5.5 million |v| by ¥500K; .345/.424/.517, 1 HR in 11 ni-gun games

Nakamigawa dropped to Ikusei status 

Kaito Awatsu: ¥5 million [v] by ¥300K; (2-3), 1.95 ERA in 30 ni-gun games 

Hiromasa Saito: ¥4.7 million [v] by ¥300K; (3-4), 2.70 ERA in 40 ni-gun games

Shinya Sugai: ¥2.8 million =; (4-2), 3.12 ERA in 15 ni-gun games

Joseph Ken Miyamoto: ¥4 million =; .172/.241/.250, 0 HR in 22 ni-gun games 

Kazuki Nomura ¥3.2 million =; .071/.071/.071, 0 HR in 4 ni-gun games 

Montell Higuma ¥4 million =; .277/.292/.362, 1 HR in 21 ni-gun games

Daiki Miura ¥4 million =; (1-1), 6.06 ERA in 13 ni-gun games

Ryosuke Koresawa ¥4 million =; .207/.258/.362, 2 HR in 26 ni-gun games


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2023 Draft picks with uniform numbers listed:

Main Draft

1. (#21) LHP Natsuki Takeuchi: ¥16 million + ¥100 million signing bonus + up to ¥50 million in incentives 

2. (#11) RHP Taiga Ueda: ¥12.5 million + ¥70 million signing bonus

3. (#47) LHP Haruki Sugiyama: ¥7 million + ¥50 million signing bonus

4. (#41) RHP Harusei Narita: ¥6.5 million + ¥40 million signing bonus

5. (#56) RHP Taisei Miyazawa: ¥9 million + ¥30 million signing bonus

6. (#99) IF Leon Murata: ¥7 million + ¥30 million signing bonus

7. (#23) RHP Ryota Itogawa: ¥9.5 million + ¥20 million signing bonus

Ikusei Draft

1. (#125) LHP Joseph Konosuke Sinclair: ¥4 million + ¥3.5 million signing bonus

2. (#126) RHP Asahi Taniguchi: ¥2.8 million + ¥3.5 million signing bonus

3. (#129) LHP Masahiro Kawashimi: ¥2.8 million + ¥3.5 million signing bonus

4. (#130) IF Koji Kaneko: ¥3.2 million + ¥3.5 million signing bonus

5. (#131) RHP Shota Kise: ¥2.8 million + ¥3.5 million signing bonus

6. (#132) OF Koichi Okumura: ¥4 million + ¥3.5 million signing bonus

Keep in mind education affects salary. Someone with a college education or from the industrial leagues as a shakaijin will have a higher salary than someone out of high school unless they're a first round draft pick. 

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Thursday, January 18, 2024

Five Seasons later: Grading the 2018 Seibu Lions Draft Class

 


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The Lions came off a pennant winning season, putting them at the end of a draft and not having the same access to a drawing if it came down to one. What tactics did they go with?

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First round: P Wataru Matsumoto (Nittai University, Tokyo)

The Lions were the only team to take a college player in opening part of the first round for the draft. All 11 other teams had opposition to their picks while the Lions scooped one of the top pitchers available for the short term. 

Matsumoto has been a rotation starter since being drafted and has reached at least 100 innings in each season since 2020. He's not an ace, but a dependable mid rotation starter. Many thought he was a safe pick and if anything, he has a high floor in spite of a low ceiling. 

Grade: B+ 


Hindsight: The Tigers took Koji Chikamoto, Hawks took Hiroshi Kaino, Swallows took Noboru Shimizu

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Second round: P Yutaro Watanabe (Urawa Gakuin HS, Saitama)

Watanabe made his ichi-gun debut in 2021 and showed good promise as a starter. He was thought to be a first round draft pick if the Lions lost out on the rights to Matsumoto. 

His playing time was limited in the next two seasons, but he ended 2023 as a spot starter showing some promise in those outings. The next two years will be make or break for Watanabe as he enters his age 24-25 seasons. Can he be a rotation regular? Time will tell. 

 Grade: B

Hindsight: None (Lions were drafting at the end of this round)

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Third round: IF Kakeru Yamanobe (Mitsubishi Motors Okazaki, Aichi)

Yamanobe was hoping to continue the trend of a position player being taken in the third round in an even-numbered year as compared to his senpai (Hideto Asamura, Shogo Akiyama, Yuji Kaneko, Shuta Tonosaki, Sosuke Genda). This shakaijin failed to make an early impact in his first professional year with only one base hit in nine games. 

The Lions were hoping he could be insurance with the loss of Asamura in free agency. However, his poor hitting forces him to be replacement player at best. He's only on the roster for depth reasons. Grade: D-

Hindsight: Marines took Kazuya Ojima, Baystars took Shinichi Ohnuki, Tigers took Seiya Kinami

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Fourth round: P Kaito Awatsu (Higashi Nihon Kokusai, Fukushima)

Awatsu was a college pitcher who was inspired to pitch in a similar manner to Tetsuya Shiozaki, who is currently working in the Lions front office. He was a regular reliever in ni-gun with a 4.56 ERA in 32 games. Awatsu made his ichi-gun debut in a game I attended against the Yomiuri Giants in garbage time, allowing two runs in two innings. It was his only career ichi-gun action up to this point. 

He was unable to play another ichi-gun game with an injury in 2021.  Since 2022, the Lions currently have him under an ikusei contract. Grade: F

Hindsight: None (Lions drafted at the end of this round)


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Fifth Round: C Shoya Makino (Yugakkankoto HS, Ishikawa)

Makino made his debut in 2022 with 11 ichi-gun games. However, he has Tommy John surgery to sideline, which led to a lengthy amount of time off and he's been under an ikusei contract since 2023. Grade: Incomplete

Hindsight: Orix took Sho Gibo. 

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Sixth Round: P Ryosuke Moriwaki (Sega Sammy, Tokyo)

Moriwaki saw ichi-gun time in the first half of the 2019 as a reliever, but he couldn't hold his position as a 7th inning setup man. In an up and down year, he is most remembered for starting a bean war with the Orix Buffaloes as he hit a few batters. This includes a bases-loaded HBP which drew an Orix coach to make contact with him. 

Moriwaki has been a reliable setup reliever since 2020 where 2021 was his only down season. When the Lions need relief for the 5th to 7th innings as a bridge to the 8th, Moriwaki was called upon and delivered more times than not. 

Unfortunately, he will be sidelined for all of 2024 with a Brachial Artery patch surgery.  The Lions designated him to an ikusei contract as he recovers. 

Grade: B+

Hindsight: None (Lions drafted near the end)

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Seventh round: IF Ryusei Sato (Fuji University, Iwate)

Sato was the only rookie to make the Opening Day roster and was at the ichi-gun for most of the 2019 season. He spent his first year on the bench, playing mostly 3B as a defensive replacement, but excelled when given the chance. Sato even had a few timely hits in his young career. 

 It all blew up when he was caught breaking team COVID rules by going golfing with Makoto Aiuchi and speeding as a driver. He lost his place and fell out of favor, prompting a trade with the Fighters which brought Shota Hiranuma and Katsuhiko Kumon in return. 

With the Fighters, his biggest highlight was denying a no-hitter to Orix pitcher Ren Mukunoki, who was one strike away. With controversy with Haruka Yamada's wife slandering Sosuke Genda's family, the Lions traded him to the Fighters to bring Sato back with the team.

Sato saw the most ichi-gun time in his return season of 2023 showing the promise he he once held in 2019. His timely hit knocked the Rakuten Eagles out of the postseason and nearly won the player of the month award for reaching base nearly every game in September. 

Kumon was solid depth in 2022, before he was senryokugai in 2023 while Hiranuma is a decent bench player. With Sato as a trade piece getting other contributions while also dumping deadweight in Kimura and Yamada, this is a win for the Lions. The Lions even got to cash in on Kimura's retirement game in Tokorozawa. If Sato can earn an ichi-gun regular role for the next few years at 3B, it's icing on the cake.  Grade: B+

Hindsight: Orix took Keita Nakagawa


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Ikusei 1: P Aoi Tono (Nikkei University, Fukuoka)

Tono lived up to the billing of an ikusei pick early on. However, a career-ending injury to his ligament forced him to retire. He left the team in April of 2021. Grade: Incomplete

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Ikusei 2: P Jiyu Okubo (Hokkai HS, Hokkaido)

Okubo was picked for his size and possible upside regarding a high school pitcher. He was unable to earn a promotion as he struggled during the 2021 season with the independent BC League's Saitama Musashi Heat Bears. Okubo was a senryokugai at the conclusion of the 2021 season. Grade: Incomplete

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Ikusei 3: C Daichi Nakaguma (Tokuyama University, Yamaguchi)

Nakaguma earned a promotion to the 70-man roster in 2022 and made his debut in a July game with one at-bat as a defensive replacement. However, he couldn't earn more ichi-gun playing time in favor of Yuta Koga and Sena Tsuge when Tomoya Mori left in free agency.

The Lions designated Nakaguma as a senryokugai at the conclusion of the 2023 season and he was forced to retire from playing. Grade: Incomplete

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Overall:

If you're hitting on your first two picks, the rest can be ignored and Moriwaki staying at the ichi-gun is a success in finding three regulars.  Can Watanabe earn ichi-gun playing time? Matsumoto ended up being a safe, but reliable pick while it's even possible for Sato to become a late bloomer. There's enough success in this class to give it a positive grade even if there are no stars. Grade: B+

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Other drafts in series:








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