Lions 2024 retirements a reminder of poor free agency

 

Three veteran Saitama Seibu Lions players announced their retirement this month.  Catcher Masatoshi Okada, Outfielder Yuji Kaneko and pitcher Tatsushi Masuda all finish their careers to end this season.

 Kaneko and Okada already had their retirement games while Masuda will have his on September 28.

In reality, this is reflective of how bad the Lions have utilized free agency.

The Lions reputation for having players walk elsewhere has been around since free agency existed in the 90s and the main core from the Golden Era was broken up.  Kimiyasu Kudo left for the Daiei Hawks after the 1994 season and it only continues from there to Hiromichi Ishige to a trading of Koji Akiyama. 

Since 1994, 21 starting players have left in free agency to both NPB teams and MLB teams (Hiroyuki Nakajima, Shogo Akiyama) and the culture has been about how Seibu Holdings, the parent company has cheapened out. There's maybe even sketchy treatment of players compared to other teams.

But here, the Lions have also failed when it comes to keeping players who reach seven years of service time to enter free agency. 

Tatsushi Masuda stayed with the Lions after the 2020 season and it felt historic they kept a player. He only has a closing season in 2022 and lost his high leverage roles in 3 of the last 4 years. Masuda's 2023 was nearly unwatchable. 

Yuji Kaneko was retained for his speed, yet his regression since 2020 is clear as day.  In the last five seasons, he's only appeared in at least 100 games once and never reached at least 20 stolen bases since 2019, the one strength he once had. 

Kaneko has been a part time player since 2022. 

Masatoshi Okada was kept around as a backup catcher, but his health prevented him from playing for majority of the last three seasons. To be fair, he was mostly a pinch bunter and not necessarily a waste of money with his cost being low. However, his peak seasons were before 2020. 

Even Ken Togame, who was retained didn't have a significant role once the Lions kept him from walking in free agency.  Today, he works as a scout for the Lions front office. 

Most recently, Shuta Tonosaki,  Sosuke Genda and Katsunori Hirai were retained after reaching free agency, yet their prime could be fading sooner than expected.

Hirai has barely appeared in the bullpen this season while Tonosaki isn't a threat in the lineup. Genda has been the only constant and stayed around for his defense, now the captain.  

For the Lions, they need to show they care about treating their good players well and not letting them walk so easily in free agency.  Hideto Asamura and Tomoya Mori left at the first moment they could, much like Yasuyuki Kataoka and Hotaka Yamakawa. 

Is there hope? Seibu Holdings needs to look in the mirror. While it's nice they renovated Belluna Dome and added a practice facility with much needed dorm upgrades in response to player feedback, the cheapness of free agents leaving just doesn't escape the perception.

In the past, the Lions were able to reload and still compete. However, this has finally caught up to them as the offense is historically bad with poor development/drafting. 

To their credit, they're not overplaying old time veterans Takumi Kuriyama and Takeya Nakamura.  The next generation has all but failed as shown by Kenton Watanabe being a bust. Takuya Hiruma could join him in this club at this pace. 

Yet still, the Lions have no offensive foundational players going forward. Only Ryusei Sato can make reasonable contact. 

Scouting has only been good from a pitching standpoint since 2020. 

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Lions to offer Nishiguchi as manager for 2025

 

The Saitama Seibu Lions have decided on their manager going forward, according to a report by Sponichi, Fumiya Nishiguchi will be offered to take over for the 2025 season. 

Nishiguchi, who will turn 52 later this week, was a long time Lions pitcher for two decades. Most recently, he's been on the Lions coaching staff since 2017.

In 2022, he began as the Lions farm manager and served in this position for the last three seasons. He held various pitching coach jobs from 2017-2021 at both the ni-gun and ichi-gun levels. 

In his playing days, he's remembered as a pitcher who came up just short of a no-hitter and perfect game in three different instances. In two of those times, he was one out away from a no-hitter. 

If he accepts, Nishiguchi will take over an uphill battle where the Lions are coming off a historically awful season with a poor offense and last place finish in the Pacific League. 

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2024 Lions need to start looking ahead, cut players

The Saitama Seibu Lions already made multiple changes prior to the roster deadlines for 2024. By July 31, any possible trades for a player to count in the postseason for another team needs to be made.

For the Lions, it's looking ahead and being a last place team currently 31 games under .500 and a 0-11 head-to-head record against the Chiba Lotte Marines.

With their win percentage at .304 through July 13, the Lions are on pace for their worst season since 1971, where they were Nishitetsu Lions with a 38-84-8 record at .311 win percentage. 

If this place continues at a .304 win pct, then the 2024 season becomes the worst season in franchise history. 

What's the elephant in the room? Mediocre bullpen with a putrid offense at rock bottom.  As a team, they're hitting very close to the Mendoza Line at .204. Zero pop, but also no getting on base. 

With a historic season for the worst on the line, the Lions need to look in the mirror with their roster and see who is the plans moving forward. 

This year, they already traded Gakuto Wakabayashi to the Yomiuri Giants for OF Seiya Matsubara. They also dumped Hiromasa Saito, a former first round draft pick on Ikusei, to the SoftBank Hawks for IF Daiju Nomura. 

The Lions have also promoted P Shinya Sugai (third round ikusei pick in 2021), OF Koichi Okumura (sixth round ikusei pick in 2023) and Shoya Makino (recovering from injury) to the 70-man roster where all three have made at least four ichi-gun appearances each. 

What happens now? More should be cut at the end of the year. We'll examine all foreigners and players who could be gone sooner than later based on playing time and performance. 

One premise to keep in mind, the Lions have cut players only to give them second, third and fourth chances under Ikusei contracts. Only a handful have returned with a move up.  

Two players must also be designated for the Active Player (Rule 5) Draft after the cuts, even if the Lions need to keep them for the next year. 

Aito Takeda was plucked by the Marines and it's likely Tetsu Miyagawa was also given this designation. He was later traded to the Yakult Swallows for IF Hiyu Motoyama. 

It really forced anyone to wait until January to know who is truly cut (戦力外) or not.

As a disclaimer, this is not a wish for players to lose their jobs, but it is the reality of the business for all teams to clear way for new draft picks. In fairness, we will not list any players currently on an ikusei contract. 

Here is our list of candidates who could be gone:

IF Hiyu Motoyama

The Lions acquired Motoyama from the Swallows when sending former first round pick Tetsu Miyagawa in a trade last offseason. With only 19 ichi-gun games, it's more than likely he's unwanted. 

IF Brandon Taiga Tysinger

Promoted back to the 70-man roster after a strong camp, Tysinger has failed to play an ichi-gun game after the opening three games in Sendai. In his last at-bat, he was overwhelmed in three pitches with runners in scoring position.  His time is dwindling and while he showed promise in 2021, that's all in the last as his approach at the plate has led to nowhere.

IF Kakeru Yamanobe

Yamanobe has been with the team since 2019, but failed to be a regular with his poor bat. Thought to be insurance when Hideto Asamura would leave in free agency, he could never win a starting job and was a replacement player at best. He's never had more than 60 ichi-gun appearances in a single season and now that he's 30, there's plenty of younger options available. 

IF Naomasa Yohkawa

Taken in the Active Player Draft from 2022, Yohkawa was thought to be a matchup specialist against left-handed pitchers. In two seasons, he has a combined 20 ichi-gun games.  He's also the second oldest Japanese infielder on the roster after Takeya Nakamura. No reason to keep him around.

IF Kento Watanabe

This is what a bust looks like.  Watanabe had one fun game in 2021, but can't make an impact at 1B when he was given opportunities. Only at seven ichi-gun games in 2024 being his fourth season with the Lions, it may be time to eat it and trade him. He doesn't have the power his body build would appear as.

OF Yuji Kaneko

The Lions kept him from free agency years ago, but it's been a poor investment ever since 2020, where his stolen base count took a major drop. Became less useful as a light hitter and already showed his age in the last few years failing to appear in 50 ichi-gun games for a single season since 2022. At this rate, he's blocking someone younger from opportunity to develop.

OF Takumi Kuriyama (retirement?)

The former Lions captain turns 41 in September. A part time DH, he'll likely step away when he desires to. Playing him now just hurts development for someone else.

OF Manaya Nishikawa

Nishikawa was a second round draft pick in 2017, but has failed to win a job when given the chance. At best he's a spell outfielder as his upside and ceiling is caving in at age 25. 

OF Shohei Suzuki

Once thought to be the heir to Shogo Akiyama when drafted, Suzuki never took that step to be an ichi-gun regular. Whether it's an injury or performance, his inconsistency kept him odd the roster. Was often given the Opening Day job, but never retained it. Now he's 26 years old with a ceiling crashing down. 

OF Wataru Takagi

Takagi was once a promoted ikusei pick back in 2019. He's had only a handful of ichi-gun appearances in each season since. However, he hasn't played an ichi-gun game in 2024, hinting he's buried on the depth chart. 

C Masatoshi Okada (retirement?)

Okada hasn't appeared in a game since 2022 due to a lengthy injury. It's unclear if he'll ever be healthy enough to play in a game again.

C Sena Tsuge

With the emergence of Yuto Koga, it's likely Tsuge lost his battle and has become expendable as a backup.  There isn't much incentive to keep him with younger options. 

P Shota Hamaya

Hamaya saw limited action in 2020, but couldn't build off his promising start. He appeared in one game for 2024 and it's likely there won't be many chances ahead.

P Tatsushi Masuda (free agent)

Masuda is in the final year of a four year contract and while it may have been important to keep him at the time, this investment has backfired. He only has a good season in 2022 but has remained forgettable otherwise. 

P Ren Omagari

A former rubber ball pitched, Omagari only saw mop up duties from 2021-2023. He has yet to make an ichi-gun appearance in 2024. Time may have run out.

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Foreign players

We look at all import players no matter how they perform and see how things look. 

P Albert Abreu

Abreu has been the Lions closer for most of the season. While he's human and has his share of blown games, the Lions would welcome him back in 2025 at this pace. Question is, does someone in MLB give an offer? If so, he's going back to North America. 

P Bo Takahashi

Bo has been given the back end starter job and been average. He's not going to be the most attractive option, but to eat innings, he's done his part. There's a good chance the Lions retain his services in 2025.

P Jefry Yan

Yan has been more famous for his excessive strikeout celebrations. In reality, he's taken low leverage innings which is job someone needs to do. He's cost efficient, but is there really upside here? Based on performance, the Lions could easily look for an upgrade elsewhere.

IF Jesus Aguilar

Aguilar is all but done in chances with the Lions. He looks overwhelmed in his 30 games and has lost a step in his game. Unfortunately, it's likely he played through injuries and his decline from MLB speaks for itself in comparison to his peak 2018 season in Milwaukee. 

The gamble to let David MacKinnon walk with wanting Aguilar as a power hitter backfired. Crazy enough, MacKinnon is available as the Samsung Lions just released him this week. 

OF Franchy Cordero

Cordero saw even fewer games than Aguilar with only 22 and the Lions have given up on him since May.

He strikes out too much for a guy who can hit it hard and can be capable of barrels. It doesn't happen enough and he's on his way out at this pace.

Conclusion 

Anything goes. Anyone on this roster who isn't a proven regular should be nervous when it's the end of the season.  When you're an awful team being run by a cheap ownership and have failed to scout/develop position players for years, this is what happens. Kazuo Matsui was the first scapegoat, but who else in the front office or staff deserves to go?

Maybe the people who liked Kento Watanabe would be a start. 

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Lions failures make 2024 a lost season

 

This blog has been inactive thanks to being on several trips, including a recent dismissal of Kazuo Matsui as the manager of the Saitama Seibu Lions. 

Let's catch up on the several things from May and more.

Former coach passed away

On May 5, former pitching coach Eiji Kiyokawa passed away from a battle with cancer. The team announced this news a week after his passing as they mourned for him. He served as a farm pitching coach from 2019-2023 and his last work was under an advisory role for 2024. 

As a player, Kiyokawa, 62, was a pitcher for the Hiroshima Carp and Kintetsu Buffaloes. Prior to the Lions, he also served as a coach for the Carp and Orix Buffaloes. 

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Matsui's "retirement" occurs before interleague play

Kazuo Matsui was forced into a "leave of absence" or "rest" by the Lions front office after an abysmal 15-30 record through May 26. The Lions won their final two games in a weekend series against the Orix Buffaloes, but it wasn't enough as the team suffered two losing streaks of at seven games or more, including an eight game losing streak from May 14-24. 

General manager Hisanobu "Nabe-Q" Watanabe named himself the "acting" general manager as they search for a long term replacement. 

Nabe-Q managed his first game since 2013 on May 28 against the Chunichi Dragons. 

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Lions offense remains as weak as ever

The one fear most people had dating back to last season was needing an improvement on offense. Unfortunately, they've taken a further step backwards with both foreign position players in Jesus Aguilar and Franchy Cordero took time off the ichi-gun roster, though the latter is back. 

This worst case scenario just continues with a lack of pop aside from occasional HRs by an old Takeya Nakamura, who is coming to hit 500 for his career.  

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Nearly every position player drafted since 2017 is either a busy or part time player at best

The biggest elephant in the room points at Kento Watanabe, the first round pick of 2020, not doing anything at the ichi-gun four years removed from college. He's just one of many whiffs by the Lions front office or even the coaching staff at failing to develop. 

Manaya Nishikawa was a second round high school pick in 2017, but he can't win himself a job. 

Kakeru Yamanobe was thought to be insurance for the loss of Hideto Asamura, but he's only seen as a bench person for his poor hitting. 

Gakuto Wakabayashi can't fulfill the promise he once held in 2021. 

Only Yuto Koga appears to have developed as a hitter and being the full-time catcher. Regardless, the Lions can't reload like they used to when losing a star player to free agency. 

There is still hope for Takuya Hiruma, but time will run out if there's no progress by 2025.

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Organizational cheapness comes back to bite

There can be a catch to keeping a player too long.  See Yuji Kaneko, Tatsushi Masuda and Ken Togame. However, it's been known when a star player reaches free agency and wants money, he usually leaves the Lions. 

Takayuki Kishi was the most clear as day moment when the Lions wouldn't budge their hard offer, something the Rakuten Eagles beat by a mile. 

It's happened several times in history from going back to Kazuhiro Kiyohara signing with the Yomiuri Giants and Kimiyasu Kudo with the Daiei Hawks. 

This is a constant of the Lions front office not being with the times, though they've invested in their ballpark and player dormitories, the culture hasn't led to keeping several of their players around. 

More recently Tomoya Mori signed with the Orix Buffaloes with no regrets. 

Even with the star pitchers currently here, will they want to walk when they reach domestic free agency? It's likely.

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What happens now?

At this rate, it's about trying to have the best season you can have. Develop your players, dump the deadweight and look for fresh blood.

It's now a mistake the Lions dumped David MacKinnon with a fake lowball offer thinking Aguilar was an upgrade. 

The only thing this Lions organization has gotten right, is taking Natsuki Takeuchi with talent over need in Ryuki Watarai.  Takeuchi has lived up to the hype of expectations and the scouts got it right showing his command and versatility in pitches have helped the rotation. But even then, it's hard not to think he'll want to leave when he reaches seven years of service time, or even as low as six if the new agreement changes. 

Nabe-Q is just being a caretaker seeking a replacement. As cool as Koji Akiyama sounds as a name, he's been away from the game since 2014 and wouldn't be ideal since the times have changed. 

The Lions will need to spend these next few months wisely as they find a manager who can both coach and display strong leadership. 

Kazuo Matsui's dismissal is only a classic scapegoat move as the fall guy for the Lions failures. It happens all the time in sports to have the manager/head coach being the first domino to fall.

He's the face of all the responsibility, but his issue stems with constant poor offense, an issue that's been around since 2020, or to translate, when Shogo Akiyama signed with the Cincinnati Reds. 

With the current structure, the front office in charge of scouting position players or coaches developing them needs to change. Someone has lost their touch now that we're at five years and counting of being dismal offensively.

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Worst case scenario occurring under Matsui

 

The Saitama Seibu Lions have been free falling with a 1-9 stretch over their last 10 games.

With their most recent loss, they sit in last place of the Pacific League and have the worst record in NPB through April 21. 

Why is this happening? We will dive into some of it.

Franchy Cordero's defense was exposed

The Lions took Cordero off their ichi-gun roster when his defense was becoming a liability, but his offense of being extreme hit or miss was also a problem. It was documented he had decent exit velocity for statcast measurements, but executing them on a consistent basis is the problem.  

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Everything goes wrong at once

Sometimes it's a reliever blowing a lead or the game being one hit away. Currently, the Lions sit at a 3-7 record in one run games. To be an A-class team, the record needed to flip, but with the trends of this organization, it doesn't look good.

One day Hiroshi Kaino blows a lead, another day, runners are stranded in scoring position. On a different day, Kona Takahashi has a poor outing.

On paper this trend shouldn't continue, but there's enough flaws to keep the losing coming.

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Offense remains poor since Shogo Akiyama left for MLB

Plenty of players were drafted in the last decade. Of the position players take. since 2014, only Shuta Tonosaki and Sosuke Genda are ichi-gun regulars where it's possible Yuto Koga is a starting catcher.

Ryusei Sato may be a solid hitter, but not enough to be a star. Others like Brandon Tysinger, Gakuto Wakabayashi, Shohei Suzuki and possibly Manaya Nishikawa have fizzled out not living up to their potential. 

The hitting coaches have barely changed in this timeframe aside from Yosuke Hiraishi being an addition. 

On the aging side, Takeya Nakamura and Takumi Kuriyama are both way past their primes and the former is only staying around with the goal of reaching 500 career HRs. 

What's even more sad is Junichiro Kishi is tied for HRs with Jesus Aguilar having two up to this point, an outfielder not built to play every day.

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Kazuo Matsui has no excuses

Matsui came back to the Lions organization in 2018 as a part time player/coach. He was later the farm manager from 2019-2021, meaning he saw several of these players like Nishikawa through the organization in their developmental phases.  

He was the head (bench) coach for the Lions in 2022 as a transition year for 2023. 

Currently, there's no progress on offense and it ends up being his responsibility when one unit is rather poor. Last year, his fixation on playing Minato Aoyama hurt him and the bullpen to cost the team games.

However, with this poor showing by players, the culture of losing could trickle down long term. The worst case scenario happened last week, when Hotaka Yamakawa hit two grand slams in one game off the Lions. 

The reputation at Seibu has been negative with several players leaving once they hit free agency. It goes beyond wages, more to do with culture and conditions. 

There's a reason why Kona Takahashi wants to go to MLB someday, part of it likely wanting to leave the Lions and not be stuck for awhile. For those tracking, he doesn't have domestic FA rights until after the 2025 season.

Starting pitching is living up to the hype with Kaima Taira, Tatsuya Imai and even Natsuki Takeuchi looking good. However, this won't mean much when the team can't hit. 

If this offensive trend continues, heads need to be rolling and it's very fireable how they could even be worse than last season, where Yamakawa also missed most of the games. 

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2024 Lions Digest: Takeuchi wins debut

 

The Saitama Seibu Lions had a successful first full week of the season by going a combined 4-2 against the Orix Buffaloes and Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters.

They're currently tied for first place in the Pacific League with the Softbank Hawks having a 6-3 record.

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Game 1: Kaima Taira vs Luis Castillo

Taira pitched 5.2 shutout innings in a close affair. The only offense for the Lions came off an RBI groundout and sacrifice fly, where the latter was nearly an out. Ryusei Sato tagged up from third base and Orix Manager Satoshi Nakajima used a request when it looked too early on a fly ball.  Umpires ruled this too inconclusive to overturn the safe call.

Keisuke Honda gave up a run in the 7th inning, but limited hr damage as the Lions relief pitchers preserved a small lead in the home opener. 

Lions 2, Buffaloes 1

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Game 2: Natsuki Takeuchi vs Shunpeita Yamashita

Takeuchi threw seven shutout innings showing strong command and painting the corner. He limited Orix to only one hit and two walks. 

Jesus Aguilar drew first blood with a timely hit following a stolen base from Shuta Tonosaki. 

Manaya Nishikawa plated a run on a fielders choice while Ginjiro Sumitani scored another on an infield single.  

Takeuchi winning his NPB debut mirrored what Chihiro Sumida accomplished two years ago as it happened against Orix. 

Lions 3, Buffaloes 0

Game note: Brandon Tysinger was taken off the roster for a leg injury. 

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Game 3: "Bo" Takahashi vs. Kohei Azuma 

 Bo gave up two runs through 5.2 innings with a manufactured one via a wild pitch and sacrifice fly. With an inherited runner, Yoshinobu Mizukami gave up a timely to Tomoya Mori which was the difference. 

Azuma controlled the game with seven strong innings only allowing a solo HR to Shuta Tonosaki. The Lions had two chances of the bullpen, both squandered in the process. Sosuke Genda grounded into a double play and Takeya Nakamura grounded out, both times with the tying run in scoring position. 

Buffaloes 2, Lions 1

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Game 4: Tatsuya Imai vs Hiromi Itoh

This game was a tight contest where Franchy Cordero hit his first HR of the year. Holding a 2-1 lead, Imai gave up a sacrifice fly and later a timely to Yuya Ginji, but good defense by Manaya Nishikawa on a relay preserved a deadlock.  

Chances by the Lions were ruined by a failed squeeze attempt from Nishikawa and fly out from Yuto Koga. 

Taishi Mameda loaded the bases in the 12th, leading to a walkoff sacrifice fly by Ariel Martinez and a loss.

Fighters 3, Lions 2 (12 innings)

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Game 5: Chihiro Sumida vs. Takayuki Katoh

Ryusei Sato and Junichiro Kishi hit back-to-back home runs which set the tone for the Lions to control this game. 

Sumida pitched seven shutout innings with five strikeouts and one walk. Mizukami struggled in the 9th, where Abreu came in to record another save. Coming off the bench, Ryosuke Kodama added a timely.

Lions 5, Fighters 2

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Game 6: Wataru Matsumoto vs Kenta Uehara

The Lions offense exploded for a combined 11 runs off 12 hits, with five of those runs coming in the first four innings.

Matsumoto was also efficient, throwing eight innings with one run allowed, four hits and five strikeouts. His outing was only took 94 pitches. Yuta Nakamura made his Lions debut in the 9th to a scoreless frame. 

It was such a successful day that even Hiyu Motoyama had a hit off the bench for his first in a Lions uniform.

Lions 11, Fighters 1

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2024 Lions Digest: Imai dominates Opening Day

The Saitama Seibu Lions took the Opening Day weekend series in Sendai against the Rakuten Eagles.

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Game 1: Tatsuya Imai vs Takahisa Hayakawa

Both teams struggled to score as the starters controlled the game. Even getting on base was a struggle with only a handful of hits allowed. It wasn't until the 8th inning, where Shuta Tonosaki had a timely off Hayakawa to plate Yuji Kaneko as the only run. 

Imai dominated for six innings and had 11 strikeouts. It took an extra will to finish the 7th, but he got the ground ball needed when runners were on. He had an average velocity of 154 km/h (96mph) and even touched higher speed in the first two innings. 

Both Hiroshi Kaino and Albert Abreu closed the 8th and 9th innings, respectively where the latter recorded his first save in NPB making his debut. 

Lions 1, Eagles 0

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Game 2: Chihiro Sumida vs. Kosei Shoji

This one has one that of runners on base for the Lions as Franchy Cordero and Jesus Aguilar made big contributions and timely hits. Cordero had first blood with a hard double down the right field line to score Kaneko from first. Yuto Koga had a Modasho and eight out of nine Lions starters had at least one hit.  

Sumida struggled out of the gate, but some clean 3rd and 4th innings were able to get him into the 6th before being pulled for his first win. 

Lions 8, Eagles 2

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Game 3: Wataru Matsumoto vs Seiryu Uchi

The Lions jumped out to a 3-0 lead where Toshiki Abe had a brutal error misfielding a base hit. However, the Eagles responded in the bottom of the third as Abe redeemed his mistake by getting a hit with the bases loaded to tie it up. 

Matsumoto would only last five innings as this would be a no-decision. The Lions had a chance in the 6th, but pinch runner Wataru Takamatsu was picked off by the catcher at second base. 

Both teams squandered numerous chances including groundouts by Takeya Nakamura and Hideto Asmaura. 

Hiroto Kobukata came through in the 11th inning as Ryota Itogawa was making his debut in relief. A sacrifice fly ended 

Lions 3, Eagles 4 (11 innings)

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