2023 Seibu Lions enter season with more question marks than answers

 

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The Saitama Seibu Lions ring in a new 2023 season being the end of one era and starting another.

Gone is Hatsuhiko Tsuji who retired and entering is Kazuo Matsui who has been the man in waiting ever since he returned in 2018.

There are plenty of storylines to look at from the roster construction and players hoping for success individually and as a team.

Here are some things to look for in Matsui's first season as skipper:

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Kaima Taira as a starter

One of the offseason subplots was Taira holding out during salary negotiations in hopes of becoming a starting pitcher to take the next step in his career. It's possible he has MLB aspirations in the future and entering a rotation will do this.

In preseason, he did his part with no issues, but it will be interesting to see if he has the stamina to go for 6-7 as a starter vs being a setup man or closer.

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Yamakawa in a contract year 

One of the scariest things entering 2023 is knowing Hotaka Yamakawa has domestic free agent rights when it's over. With the narrative of the Lions not being the best organization to play for and several wanting to walk for non-fiscal reasons, is he the next to join this club?

It also means he has to play well for 2023 to be a target. While he was the first half MVP on offense for 2022, he cooled down in the final months and the Lions struggled to hit. A one man show of Yamakawa isn't sustainable to be relevant and someone else needs to step it up even if we aren't thinking about him walking.

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Kazuo Matsui's approach

As with any new manager, Kazuo Matsui's style isn't known until he's in charge of games. He saw farm manager experience from 2019-2021 and knows the organization from top to bottom as a result of seeing several guys in ni-gun.

Being a leader takes a lot and as a younger mind compared to Tsuji, it will be interesting to see how he does as a skipper.

Many have anticipated this era the moment he was brought back as a player/coach in 2018. If anything, at least he isn't thrown into the fire with some years of grooming and experience before being in this position.

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New faces and foreigners

The Lions only kept two imports from 2022 in Dietrich Enns and Bo Takahashi for this season. IF David MacKinnon, OF Mark Payton and P Jesus Tinoco are hoping to be impact players and at least two of them will need to be ichi-gun regulars in order to be relevant for 2023. 

Offensively, the Lions were below average. Both Payton and MacKinnon don't describe themselves as power hitters, but if they can contribute with doubles, getting on base and slap hitting, that would be a best case scenario. Don't measure either person by home runs.

In a minor pickup from the active player draft, Naomasa Yohkawa was plucked from the Hanshin Tigers as a reserve infielder who could matchup in select situations. Expect him to be a specialist against left-handed pitchers. 

Yaku Cho was the compensation selection from Orix as the team lost Tomoya Mori. He could be a spot starter or reliever. 

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Catcher position should be balanced

Tomoya Mori walking in free agency looks like the biggest blow to the team since Shogo Akiyama left for MLB. However, the defense should be improved as Mori regressed behind the plate from his peak seasons.

Sena Tsuge and Yuto Koga were drafted for a reason and both catchers shouldn't be a liability behind the dish. Offense unfortunately won't be as threatening as Mori, but this isn't the biggest hole on offense compared to another unit. 

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The outfield needs stability

This is an elephant in the room that's been ongoing since Akiyama signed with the Cincinnati Reds. There's hope Gakuto Wakabayashi can be healthy, Shohei Suzuki could retain an ichi-gun position and first-round draft pick Takuya Hiruma can be an impact rookie.

No matter who is starting, the Lions need someone to earn a regular starting job and keep it all season. Last year, they were hoping Brian O'Grady would do this, but his regression after July led to a benching in September, forcing a scramble for someone else. It would t hurt if Mark Payton can stay on top for one of those three positions. 

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Can Kona Takahashi be a true ace?

Many don't like the Lions as a whole for not having anyone with MLB potential. They don't strikeout anyone consistently in the rotation and Kona Takahashi is viewed as a front end starter on most teams. 

This off-season, Takahashi said he wants to pitch in MLB someday and the Lions talked about how he has to earn a possible posting. Not many take Tatsuya Imai and Wataru Matsumoto seriously either. 

An argument can be made they're only good at run prevention due to Sosuke Genda and Shuta Tonosaki on the infield. 

This applies to the bullpen as well from Yoshinobu Mizukami and Keisuke Honda as setup relievers. 

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Rookie impact?

The Lions recent draft picks could help a team if they're on the ichi-gun sooner than later. The aforementioned Hiruma needs to do something for 2023 to be a successful year. 

P Minato Aoyama could be in the bullpen if he earns a spot. It's possible IF Ryosuke Kodama could be a defensive replacement or pinch runner with his speed. It didn't hurt Kodama had reps at SS with Genda at the World Baseball Classic.

Maybe an ikusei gets promoted the way Natsuo Takizawa and Shinya Hasegawa were in 2022. 

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Expert picks

Japan Baseball Weekly had their annual prediction podcast episodes for both the Pacific and Central Leagues.

Here's what everyone had to say about where they expect the Lions to finish:

John E. Gibson (Yomiuri Shimbun): 6th

Gibson believes the Lions have lost more than they gained with Mori no longer there. Not a fan of Kona Takahashi trying to carry the rotation. It's going to cost them.

Jim Allen (Kyodo News): 3rd

Allen has the most optimistic tone of the bunch, primarily thinking the outfield has potential. He thinks Kazuo Matsui will bring something good to table. 

Claudio Rodriguez (Beisbol Japones): 4th

Rodriguez expects regression is expected and doesn't like the offense. However, he expects the pitching to keep the team competitive and not a complete collapse. 

Jason Coskrey (Japan Times): 6th

Coskrey says the pitching data from 2022 is too much of a fluke to repeat. Lots of uncertainty with Matsui being inexperienced. 

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The Competition

The Softbank Hawks are the clear-cut favorites being a loaded organization. Despite some offensive ups and downs, the return of Ryoya Kurihara should put them over the top. 

The Orix Buffaloes lost Masataka Yoshida to MLB, gained Mori and still have a top pitching staff in baseball. Offense is still below average with a lack of pop, even when it had Yoshida last year. Everything has gone right for the team in the last two years, making up for all the shortcomings in the past. 

If they can be above average in offense, Orix is a lock for A-class. 

The Chiba Lotte Marines have a new manager with uncertainty ahead. While the starting pitching should be great, can the offense take that next step? Plenty of position players need a breakout season for relevance after being a disappointment in 2022. They should be more than just a Roki Sasaki show. 

The Rakuten Eagles stripped manager Kazuhisa Ishii of his GM duties as he only has an on-field role this season. The rotation is mostly old and some could argue they have the best offense in the PL, but Ishii's leadership and managerial skills have shown games aren't played on paper. Could this be the end of Ishii?

The Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters have a new ballpark and should take a step up from year one under skipper Tsuyoshi Shinjo. Offensively they have some power and some above average pitchers. They're going to need a breakout season from Kotaro Kiyomiya to make a push for A-class, but the youth could easily have them sneak up on the competition. 

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The Predictions 

1. Softbank Hawks

2. Orix Buffaloes

3. Chiba Lotte Marines

4. Saitama Seibu Lions

5. Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters

6. Rakuten Eagles

I see problems with the Lions offense to repeat having a winning record from 2022. Marines finally take a step forward on offense while the Hawks return to being the class of the Pacific League. 

Nothing would be surprising from 2-6 unless the Fighters just sprout up to second place. There's enough parity and lack of offense in the PL for anyone to claim A-class.

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2023 World Baseball Classic was a major success

 

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The 2023 World Baseball Classic was amazing to attend and be at. For what ended up being a win for Japan, we need to remember how important this was for the game of baseball beyond MLB.

Several games ended up being fun and entertaining from Taiwan to Miami. With the spirit of the game in full blast while in the month of March, there was nothing like it seeing a team celebrate a Little League style HR from Francisco Lindor and team Puerto Rico.

In a lengthy post, here are some observations and trip report I'll make in lieu making up for all the lack of coverage on the WBC:

Japan's pitching can hang with the rest

An excuse that's been used over and over again is how Japan has a smaller baseball than MLB. This competition was played with a Major League baseball and NPB pitchers had to adjust in practice, but the games showed it wasn't an issue, aside for maybe Yu Darvish? (Just kidding)

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The 2023 WBC championship has more value than 2006 and 2009

While many will argue a championship is a championship and they call count the same, this one has more weight to it beyond recency bias. Factor in who took this competition seriously from a USA offense with multiple MVPs on it to the entire Group of Death (Group D) being a blood bath and full of Major League players, this title means more.

The World Baseball Classic was in it's infancy stages in 2006 and 2009 where many saw this as an ambassador opportunity to grow the game, but several player treated it like like another exhibition or didn't take it as seriously. Dominican Republic could've easily been a theater in those years yet found a way to be bounced early. 

Jim Allen has even mentioned how Sadaharu Oh won as a manager of this tournament in spite of making mistakes on the field. Back then, only Korea and Japan took this competition to the fullest and laid it all out.

While an argument can be made how USA didn't have great pitchers available, they still had an offense.

The 2017 USA championship carries plenty of weight as well having wins over Venezuela, Dominican Republic, Japan and Puerto Rico all in consecutive games. 

When you can defeat some of the best, you deserve to be called the best. 

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Yu Darvish and father time?

For all the talks about being the veteran presence on Samurai Japan, Darvish looked old when pitching and he coughed up at least 1 HR in each outing. He took majority of spring training off away from the Padres to train with Samurai Japan only to struggle in the tournament. 

The San Diego Padres just rewarded him with an excessive contract extension which will take him into his early 40s. Was that really a smart call to go long term on any pitcher? 

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Murakami was humbled

For a player who had all the hype entering the tournament as a two-time MVP, this wasn't his greatest outing but  was able to redeem himself with two swings. With two runners on base, manager Hideki Kuriyama was about to pinch-hit him for a bunt until it was obvious Mexico pitcher Giovanni Gallegos was struggling with command. 

Turned out to be the right call as he nearly hit a HR, a ball that went off the wall for a sayonara double. He later hit a solo tying HR off Merrill Kelly. 

Despite finishing strong, pump the brakes on Murakami for now and let the next couple years play out. Major League pitching is still an obstacle for many position players coming from Japan. 

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Yoshida is riding momentum 

Masataka Yoshida was surprised at his own contract he signed with the Boston Red Sox not thinking he would be so valuable. This tournament? He lived up to the hype and carried Japan's offense in the semi-final game against Mexico. Boston fans haven't felt happy over this off-season as a whole, but Yoshida could be a nice consolation through it all as a reason for hope.

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Mexico didn't win the tournament, but their run was a success for baseball

The World Baseball Classic setup is a reason why anything can happen and games aren't played on paper. Many thought Mexico may not have had the firepower to hang around with other teams, but their upset over Puerto Rico in the quarterfinal will easily inspire many in a later generation to play baseball. Credit to Benji Gill for leading a group of men to a deep run.

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The atmosphere was unique, making baseball something fun

The noise, the crowds and the chants is what makes baseball refreshing. While the Ouendan style of songs in Japan is already documented and nothing new, hearing how things are done in Taiwan, or even the fans in Miami made this tournament great.

Miami has a dark fair weather sports reputation for plenty of apathy, yet we saw a packed park when it doesn't involve the Marlins as Venezuelans, Puerto Ricans, Dominicans and even Mexicans were making noise in the tournament. It was icing on the cake when Cuba made the semi finals and many residents of South Florida had the chance to see the country of their heritage on stateside soil after the team was in Asia the entire tournament prior. 

There are clearly baseball fans in Miami, just not Marlins ones. 

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Japan brings out the best in people

What made the game of Mexico and Japan special and being there was how respectful everyone was towards each other. Soccer games in Mexico have had crazy and even scary stories as has much of sporting events in the world. 

However, those who made the trip to Miami were all kind towards the Japanese even in defeat, even having a bow gesture and wanting to take pictures with whoever was nearby. Maybe it's the reputation Japan had for cleaning up the stadiums during the 2018 and 2022 World Cups, but it was a pleasant site to see. 

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Tetsuto Yamada isn't done

When Samurai Japan's roster came out, some may have though taking Yamada coming off a down season was a head scratcher, yet his presence on defense was vital when it mattered most. He even stole two bases in the championship game against USA, something he has lacked in Japan since his Triple-3 days. 

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Kuriyama won a chess match in the championship game

When Japan was forced to burn their two best starting pitchers available in Roki Sasaki and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, it was concerning what would happen against a USA offense that was tearing it up for the tournament knowing Shohei Ohtani wasn't allowed to pitch more than one inning per team agreement with the Los Angeles Angels 

 Kuriyama went with a bullpen plan knowing almost everyone was available and tactically caught USA hitters off guard. It was rather gutsy to put in a young Hiroto Takahashi and Hiromi Itoh for high leverage, yet they got it done. Itoh especially had lower velocity, but this was about outsmarting the opposition than using force and strength. 

This sums up Japanese baseball as a whole, where things are more technical than powering. Samurai Japan's pitchers got the ground ball and let Sosuke Genda/Yamada do the rest on the infield. 

While it's easy to say the final inning stands out for the casual viewer, this game as a whole was a team effort and well-executed madness from the manager. 

Had this been a seven-game series, opposing teams would have adjusted accordingly, but having it come down to one game made it even more exciting. No time to think, forcing players to do their best in a tight situation, which favored Japan.

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The Angels are the biggest losers of the World Baseball Classic

It's been elephant in the room for a whole decade before Ohtani even signed with them in 2018, but the Los Angeles Angels time is ticking when it comes to international recognition. 

Seeing Mike Trout face Shohei Ohtani for all the marbles was fun as a baseball fan, but as an Angels fan it's a harsh reminder the organization hasn't done anything relevant in a long time. 

There are many arguments both players are currently the best in the game yet they still haven't had a winning record together while on the Angels. The worst case scenario happened in this off-season when owner Arte Moreno announced he pulled back any sale of the team. 

Ohtani has made it clear he wants to win and with this being a contract year, he can leave and teams can make a case to bring him over. If the Angels were smart, they needed to sell earlier to get a better compensation package, but Moreno likes the cash flow Ohtani brings. Being in Miami, plenty of Japanese visitors had Angels-related Ohtani gear on. Next year we could see people wearing another MLB team shortly. 

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WBC Trip report

I made the trip to Miami for the second consecutive WBC Finals appearance having been to Los Angeles in 2017.

To put it in short, it was worth every penny. Here's some extra photos of the trip.

It was also a treat to finally meet Jim Allen in person. 

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