Wednesday, October 24, 2018

2018 NPB Draft: Where do the Lions go from here?


The 2018 NPB Draft will take place on October 25.

As a reminder, the first round is a free for all where everyone selects who they want and if anyone wants the same player, they draw for his rights with a winning ticket out of a box. Teams that miss on their player will go again until all 12 teams have their first round selection. The record for most teams wanting one player is eight. 


Hideo Nomo was one of the two instances where this happened while the other was Hideo Koike in 1990. A video of the first round in 1989 is here below.


 Most recently, the 2017 first round can be seen here.



For the record, the representative for each team is chosen at the team's discretion. Sometimes it's the manager, other times it could be an executive, GM equivalent or even a scout. 

From the second round and on, the draft order is like a traditional one where the worst team of one league goes first, then it reverses to the worst of the opposite league then flops back to the second worst of the original in a snake format. The Pacific League won the regular season head-to-head series once again, so they will select first.

Here is how the draft order will look in the second round, while the odd rounds will be this list in reverse:

1. Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles (Pacific League, 6th place)
2. Hanshin Tigers (Central League, 6th place)
3. Chiba Lotte Marines (PL, 5th)
4. Chunichi Dragons (CL, 5th)
5. Orix Buffaloes (PL, 4th)
6. Yokohama DeNA Baystars (CL, 4th)
7. Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters (PL, 3rd)
8. Yomiuri Giants (CL, 3rd)
9. Fukuoka Softbank Hawks (PL, 2nd)
10. Tokyo Yakult Swallows (CL, 2nd)
11. Saitama Seibu Lions (PL, 1st)
12. Hiroshima Carp (PL, 1st)

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The Lions can obviously go in any direction. Keep in mind that if they go to a drawing, they will likely be taking last from the box unless they like the same player as the Carp. Here's how we'll breakdown each position: 

Pitcher: 

Pitching is still the most obvious hole on the team and with Yusei Kikuchi being posted this offseason, it's going to get even harder. The 2015 class doesn't appear to be providing the depth needed and the team could go anywhere for bullpen or starting pitcher help. There is a trio of pitchers from Toyo University in Hiroshi Kaino, Taigi Kamichatani and Kodai Umetsu.

The team has been linked to Kosei Yoshida, who made himself known through the 2018 Summer Koshien Tournament carrying his school on his back. College pitcher Wataru Matsumoto has also received quite a bit of recognition among the Lions brass. There are several fall back options if the Lions don't hit on their first nomination choice.

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Catcher: 

The Lions are set for the long term at catcher with Tomoya Mori. However, they will likely let Ginjiro Sumitani walk in free agency. It's possible they take a late flyer on someone or wait until the ikusei round. Behind Masatoshi Okada and Mori, the Lions have three farm catchers and it's possible one of them goes to the ichi-gun. They could promote Masato Saito if they want, but there is no priority to take a catcher this year.

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Infielder:

Hideto Asamura is a free agent and it's likely the Lions are bracing for him going to another team. Third base has plenty of questions long term when Takeya "Okawari-kun" Nakamura won't be there forever. Akira Neo out of Osaka Toin is the consensus "Best player" among the teams and media, but he will go to a large drawing. If the Lions are feeling lucky, they'll put their name in the box. Infielder Ryo Ota is an interesting fallback option.

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Outfielder:

The outfield is all but set with Shuta Tonosaki and Shogo Akiyama. They have taken plenty of high school outfielders in recent years hoping someone can emerge in the future. Kyota Fujiwara is the big name out of Osaka Toin, but the Chiba Lotte Marines already announced they're going for him. Koji Chikamoto is a a shakaijin who could be taken later.

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Outlook: 

With the Lions not announcing their pick in public this year, I don't think they go for Neo. It's likely they go with Wataru Matsumoto or Kosei Yoshida as they are secretive about their plan. The Lions front office was debating Neo by mentioning a future infielder or taking a future pitcher, but I think they're going to stick to the plan on the latter.

The Lions cut five players when announcing their first senryokugai list. It's possible that even more can be dropped after the draft.

Of course anything can happen. Only five teams revealed their pick and it's a question how many teams go with Neo. Stay tuned everyone, this will be interesting.

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