Thursday, January 31, 2019

Seibu Lions 2019 Spring Training Outlook: Rotation


The Saitama Seibu Lions will enter 2019 with rotation uncertainty and a possible revolving door. Yusei Kikuchi was posted and signed with the Seattle Mariners while others haven't proven to be a true ace.

There have been changes with a few incoming and hopes that some prospects emerge. Here's how things stand as Spring Training began in Miyazaki today:

Locks: 

Shinsaburo Tawata: After becoming the wins leader in 2018, Tawata will have all the expectations for 2019 to be the next ace. Crazy enough, his first full season of being healthy had some of the worst strikeout rates, but he was good at weaker contact and benefited from a strong infield.

Daiki Enokida: Enokida proved to be a steal after the Lions acquired him via a swap for Yosuke Okamoto. It's safe to say the Lions will win that trade, but Enokida did well mostly against the Chiba Lotte Marines and Rakuten Eagles. The Lions hope he can keep up what he did in 2018, but on paper, it's not sustainable if he's seeing the Softbank Hawks more often. Should be a No. 3 pitcher.

Tatsuya Imai: Imai played quite a few ichi-gun games last season after having zero in 2017 thanks to an injury. He went through the classic ups and downs that a young pitcher goes through, mostly with his control being inconsistent. Lions are hoping he can make progress from last year in his age 21 season.

Tetsuya Utsumi: Utsumi was the compensation selection by the Lions when they lost Ginjiro Sumitani in free agency. While he isn't young, the team thinks he can help in the rotation immediately. If he can eat innings and serve as a back end starter while staying at the ichi-gun,the Lions will take it. He could be a Type B free agent after the season is over.

Zach Neal: Neal is the only new import signing by the Lions from this offseason. Barring no injury or poor preseason, he will start at the ichi-gun level. He has good control, but how will his location look with Japanese hitters?

===

Reserves: 

Kona Takahashi: Once a touted first round draft pick, Takahashi took a step back in 2018 and didn't play an ichi-gun game until the second half as a spot starter. Others already jumped in front of him on the depth chart, but he is still only 22.

Hayato Takagi: The former Yomiuri Giant struggled in his first season against Pacific League hitters last year. In Australia, he said he needs to throw harder against the aggressive style that the Central League didn't have. Could spot starter or move to the bullpen.

Wataru Matsumoto: The Lions first round draft pick from last October should get some ichi-gun time in his true rookie season. He has good velocity, but what does his control look like?

Kaito Awatsu: Awatsu modeled his pitching style after Tetsuya Shiozaki, who is now in the Lions front office. He has an outside shot to earn a spot starter role, but could also move to the bullpen.

Keisuke Honda: Honda has looked good outside of a Lions uniform at the ichi-gun level. From the U23 Samurai Japan team from 2016, to the Melbourne Aces and in ni-gun last year, he has done well. Unfortunately this hasn't translated to NPB and time could be running thin if he can't crack ichi-gun games soon.

Ken Togame: Togame continued his trend of having a good year followed by a bad season. Based on what happened in 2018, he should have a good 2019.

Chun-Lin Kuo: The Lions used Kuo late last season as a spot starter to only face the Softbank Hawks, which is a team he did well against in 2015. He was serviceable, but hasn't done well enough to be a rotation regular.

Fabio Castillo: Castillo did well in the first half of 2018, but poor closer troubles forced him to move to the bullpen. Once he became the closer, he faltered and an injury hampered his season as a whole. He took a pay cut to return and is now on the outside fighting for ichi-gun time. Could be a decent spot starter.

===

Farm/Ikusei:

Kaima Taira: The young Okinawan played his first year of pro baseball in ni-gun and will likely do the same given he was drafted straight out of high school. He hopes to improve his velocity and control, but can pack a punch for a 19 year old.

Koki Fujita: Fujita's career started slow thanks to an injury in 2016, but he has been playing more ni-gun games. A 9th round draft pick from 2015 who turns 22 in December, he hopes to earn more playing time.

Yutaro Watanabe: Watanabe was the Lions second-round draft pick out of high school last October. The team viewed him as a fallback first round option, but he fell to the late second-round, creating good value to the Lions management and draft board. He's tall, but will have plenty of room to grow both in pitching and physically.

Jiyu Okubo: The second-round ikusei pick from last fall is one of the tallest players on the team at 198 cm (6' 8"). Velocity is lacking and the Lions see him as an unfinished project. He just finished high school and will be looking to earn a promotion to the 70-man roster.

===

Outlook: 

The Lions can pencil in the five players as locks barring no injury. They can easily play the matchup for the 6th starter if they want, as there won't be any rush to set a 6-man rotation until later. Competition will play itself out, but there is no true ace on this team entering the season.

In the long run, the Lions need Imai, Matsumoto or Takahashi to step it up as they were the first round picks. The good thing is how there are plenty of options for the rotation and still upside on multiple pitchers. They don't need to be dominant, but adequate enough to go five or six innings.

===

Here's the poll results we made on Utsumi:





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Other positions in Series: 

Catcher

Infield

Outfield

Bullpen

===

Follow us on Twitter @GraveyardBall
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Monday, January 28, 2019

Seibu Lions 2019 Spring Training Outlook: Outfield


The Saitama Seibu Lions outfield doesn't have any significant changes or developments, but there are homegrown players likely to see more playing time than last year. This goes in the books as a transition season before someone will be inserted long term.

Here is how the outfield will shape up:

Locks: 

Shogo Akiyama: The Lions have been seeing Akiyama at his peak with arguably his strongest seasons in 2017 and 2018. Suddenly 2019 is a contract year where he will have international free agent rights while also becoming the team's captain. Will he take his game across the Pacific in 2020?

Yuji Kaneko: Kaneko had a terrible season with his bat in 2018, but continued to steal bases when he wasn't out. There should be a chance for a rebound year when it comes to hitting.

Takumi Kuriyama: Kuriyama has been serving as a 4th outfielder and pinch hitter. His role most likely stays the same as he battles father time, but he should be useful off the bench as long as he isn't playing every day.

Shuta Tonosaki: If Tonosaki doesn't play 2B regularly, he'll likely be starting in right field once again as his fall back option. The Lions should prioritize Tonosaki to be a regular starter in any way, shape or form.

Fumikazu Kimura: Nothing flashy, but he came off a decent year while being a spell outfielder and defensive replacement in right field. Manager Hatsuhiko Tsuji knows what he is and we won't be seeing him as a regular starter anytime soon.

===

Reserves: 

Masato Kumashiro: Time could be running out on his playing career if the younger Lions take over. He's a useful defensive replacement who can play anywhere in the outfield or infield, but he doesn't hit as well.

Shogo Saito: Like Kumashiro, time is running short. Saito had a decent stretch in a pinch for 2018 before he cooled off. At best he's a defensive replacement.

===

Unproven/Farm

There are a load of young players in the outfield with minimal ichi-gun. It's likely we'll see someone start playing more as a result of finding a long term replacement for Akiyama, especially if he leaves after 2019.

"Aito" Takeda: Takeda enters his fourth year with the Lions in hopes to find more ichi-gun time. He has been up for a few games, but still has not recorded a hit at the ichi-gun level.

Daisuke Togawa: A former ikusei pick, Togawa was promoted after the 2015 season, but hasn't registered ichi-gun time. He'll be on the outside as he hasn't been able to hit well in ni-gun despite being 23 this April and being with the team since 2015.

Shohei Suzuki: Suzuki has been seen as the heir to Akiyama and hopes to develop as the regular starting centerfielder for the long run. He has all the physical tools to be a leadoff hitter in the future. At age 20, he's still very raw.

Seiji Kawagoe: Kawagoe switches from pitcher to outfield as he was a two-way player when drafted out of college in 2015. It's possible his bat will be better than his pitching arm and could crack time, but age isn't on his side being 25 years old.

Wataru Takagi: Takagi earned a promotion from ikusei after only one year in ni-gun, hitting .278/.348/.448 in 75 games. He's only 19, but could be a long term option.

===

Outlook: 

The ichi-gun starters are all but set. It will depend on what the Lions do with Tonosaki which will affect how a farm player starts getting time in the OF or not. In the long run, one of these prospects needs to emerge if they want to be competing for years to come.

===

We have also added a poll regarding the reserve outfielders.



===

Other positions in Series: 

Catcher

Infield

Bullpen

Rotation


===

Follow us on Twitter @GraveyardBall
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Saturday, January 26, 2019

Seibu Lions 2019 Spring Training Outlook: Infield


The infield for the Saitama Seibu Lions will have a different look by at least 25%. Hideto Asamura recently signed with the Rakuten Eagles and the Lions will need to figure out who will be the team's starting second baseman.

Elsewhere, the Lions will need a long term third base option as Takeya "Okawari-kun" Nakamura will not last forever. Here's how the infield situation looks:

Locks: 

Sosuke Genda: Genda avoided a sophomore slump season and should remain the starting shortstop without question.

Hotaka Yamakawa: After having two bad Aprils to begin his ichi-gun career, Yamakawa put in a full season for the first time and earned Pacific League MVP honors with the Home Run King title. Should be batting cleanup once again and starting at 1B.

Takeya Nakamura: Okawari-kun will turn 36 this year and is approaching 400 career home runs. After an amazing second half, he did everything he could for a veteran, but how much could his playing time diminish as he battles father time? He'll likely start quite a few games at 3B, but someone else could emerge later.

Shuta Tonosaki: It's possible the Lions make him the starting 2B if he beats out his competition. He usually saw time at second base when the defensive replacements came in, but his range was more effective in the outfield. The Lions still have him listed as an infielder and based on last year, he is penciled in to start.

===

Reserves: 

Ernesto Mejia: This is probably the hardest thing to label, but Mejia is all but expendable from a Lions standpoint. The team gave Mejia a three-year extension in the middle of 2016 and it has been a mistake in hindsight with the emergence of Yamakawa. He is likely to be the team's pinch hitter and occasional DH in a spell situation. It's all but guaranteed that 2019 is Mejia's final year in a Lions uniform.

Kakeru Yamanobe: The Lions third round draft pick out of the Shakaijin leagues could win himself a job at 2B. He has decent hitting abilities and range, but can it translate to NPB?

Kazuki Kaneko: Once a high school draft pick in 2013, the time is ripe for him to emerge as he turns 24 this May. He saw a decent spell at the ichi-gun when Okawari-kun was ineffective for the first half.

Haruka Yamada: Yamada was a high school draft pick in 2014 and had only one hit last year in his time at the ichi-gun. A solo HR was his only moment of glory with his bat, but he showed decent fielding at 3B as a defensive substitute.

Ryusei Sato: Sato can compete right away despite being a 7th round draft pick out of college. Competing with high school draft picks who are slightly older than him, Sato has pop and was a cleanup hitter in college. He is more likely suited for 3B over the others when it comes to the 2B competition.

Daichi Mizuguchi: Mizuguchi is the only ikusei player to play an ichi-gun game in Lions history through 2018. He was mostly a pinch runner or defensive substitute at 2B, which is what his career is likely to be. Has almost no chance at winning the starting job.

Nien Ting Wu: Wu has been training in ni-gun to play all positions in the field outside of catcher and pitcher. He's versatile to be inserted anywhere, but his bat hasn't impressed the coaches enough to earn ichi-gun time. With so many players to compete against, it's a large uphill battle for the infielder out of Taiwan.

Kyohei Nagae: Nagae is arguably one of the best fielders on the team, but cannot hit well enough to get ichi-gun starts. With others being younger on the roster, Nagae is on the outside trying to stay relevant.

===

The Farm: 

Ryusei Tsunashima: A high school draft pick from 2017, Tsunashima got a taste of pro baseball at the ni-gun level in 2018. This will be another year of development.

Manaya Nishikawa: The 2017 Koshien champion and former outfielder is capable of playing several position in the field. He's still raw with his bat, but the team can plug him anywhere for the long term. Like Tsunashima, this is another developmental year.

===

Outlook:

Second base is the obvious void that everyone is interested to look at among position players. It was clear during the draft when the Lions drafted Yamanobe that he was an insurance pick for when Asamura could leave via free agency.

"Catch the Glory" is the team's motto for 2019 and it hits the infield in particular for any young Lions to step it up and be part of the starting unit. In the long term, Kaneko, Sato or Yamada could emerge as the everyday third baseman as they transition away from Okawari-kun.

Somewhere deep down, the Lions wish they could find someone else to pay for Mejia's last year.

Here are the poll results via Twitter on who fans thinks could be the starting 2B.

===

Other positions in series: 

 Catcher

Outfield

Bullpen

Rotation


===

Follow us on Twitter @GraveyardBall 
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Thursday, January 24, 2019

Seibu Lions 2019 Spring Training Outlook: Catcher


The new 2019 NPB season doesn't begin until March, but training camp for everyone starts on February 1. With everything starting to kickoff in baseball, we'll do a series on each position looking at every player.

This year, the catcher position will have an opening with Ginjiro Sumitani signing with the Yomiuri Giants. Who takes his spot?

Locks: 

Tomoya Mori: Mori took the starting role for majority of 2018 and developed at his natural position of catcher, something a lot of pundits weren't sure of when he was drafted. His bat took a hit, but it can still be even better with time. Calling games is still a work in progress.

Masatoshi Okada: Okada, a high school senpai from Osaka Toin of Mori, is a serviceable backup and should start at least once a week while also serving as a defensive substitute if needed.

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Reserves: 

Hitoto Komazuki: Komazuki has spent the last two seasons transitioning from outfield to catcher and by turning 26 this year, he still has some upside left. The opportunity is there for the third spot after being buried by other catchers previously.

Shota Nakata: Nakata has been a mainstay as the farm catcher and knows the pitchers in ni-gun. He's only played in 10 ichi-gun games, but like Komazuki, he could win himself the third catcher spot.

===

Farm/Ikusei: 

Masato Saito: Saito spent last year in ni-gun and didn't earn a promotion to the 70-man roster. In ni-gun last year for 50 games, he hit near the Mendoza Line. It will need to improve with lots of competition behind him.

Shoya Makino: The 5th round pick of the Lions from last October out of high school looks to develop in ni-gun. He has all the raw traits of a starting catcher in the future, including a fast pop speed. Similar to Mori, the scouts liked his bat and think he can develop some power down the line.

Daichi Nakaguma: Nakaguma was the last player drafted in the Ikusei round and brings more competition for Saito. He had some Best 8 honors in college and also hopes to develop in ni-gun.

===

Outlook: 

With Sumitani gone, the third catcher spot is wide open for Komazuki or Nakata to take as they're both at the ichi-gun camp. While neither player appears to be cracking games, they could be on the bench as a late-game substitute if something happens.

At the farm level, the competition looks to be open with all fresh bodies after the Lions cleared some of the old. There is plenty of open time for anyone to step it up and rise to the occasion, but it's likely only four catchers will see ichi-gun time in 2019 at the most.

Here are the poll results that we conducted on Twitter:


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Other positions in series: 

 Infield

Outfield

Bullpen

Rotation

===

Follow us on Twitter @GraveyardBall
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Tuesday, January 22, 2019

Five rookies to participate in Ichi-gun camp for Spring Training


The Saitama Seibu Lions announced their Spring Training camp lists on Monday. Both "A" camp and "B" camp will begin on February 1 with different days of closing and breaks inbetween.

Most notably, five rookies will be partaking in the ichi-gun camp as they were draft picks last October. Here are the lists for both A-camp and B-camp:

*Indicates 2018 Draft pick.
^ Indicates 2018 ikusei pick
& Indicates player under ikusei contract

A-camp: February 1-18 in Nango, Miyazaki

The A-camp team will join the B-camp from February 20-24 when it ends. February 4th, 9th and 14th will be rest days.

Pitchers (21): Tatsuya Imai, Tatsushi Masuda, Wataru Matsumoto*, Shinsaburo Tawata, Hiromasa Saito, Hayato Takagi, Shogo Noda, Katsunori Hirai, Kaito Awatsu*, Tetsuya Utsumi, Ryosuke Moriwaki, Daiki Enokida, Yasuo Sano, Ichiro Tamura, Makoto Aiuchi, Kyle Martin, Keisuke Honda, Shota Takekuma, Zach Neal, Deunte Heath, Chun-Lin Kuo

Catchers (3): Tomoya Mori, Hitoto Komazuki, Shota Nakata

Infielders (8): Kakeru Yamanobe*, Shuta Tonosaki, Sosuke Genda, Ryusei Sato*, Hotaka Yamakawa, Haruka Yamada, Kazuki Kaneko, Takeya "Okawari-kun" Nakamura

Outfielders (6): Takumi Kuriyama, Yuji Kaneko, Fumikazu Kimura, Shohei Suzuki, "Aito" Takeda, Shogo Akiyama

Any player can be swapped from A-camp and B-camp. 

===

B-camp: February 1-24 in Haruno, Kochi

The Lions will use a different park in Kochi City on 2/20 and 2/24. Rest days will be on February 4th, 9th, 14th, 19th and 25th.

Pitchers (19): Yutaro Watanabe*, Kona Takahashi, Tatsuya Oishi, Ken Togame, Shunta Nakatsuka, Hirotaka Koishi, Sho Ito, Ryuya Ogawa, Fabio Castillo, Jen-Lei Liao, Tsubasa Kokuba, Tadasuke Minamikawa, Kaima Taira, Naoaki Matsumoto, Koki Fujita, Tomomi Takahashi (&), Kaito Yoza (&), Aoi Tono ^, Jiyu Okubo ^

Catchers (4): Masatoshi Okada, Shoya Makino*, Masato Saito (&), Daichi Nakaguma ^

Infielders (6): Daichi Mizuguchi, Kyohei Nagae, Nien Ting Wu, Manaya Nishikawa, Ryusei Tsunashima, Ernesto Mejia

Outfielders (5): Masato Kumashiro, Shogo Saito, Daisuke Togawa, Seiji Kawagoe, Wataru Takagi

===

With Sato, Yamanobe, W. Matsumoto, Awatsu and Moriwaki all getting a look at the ichi-gun A-camp, it should be interesting and open competition for a few pitcher spots. It's also clear the Lions are looking at the third catcher role with Komazuki and Nakata getting a look from Tsuji while second catcher Okada will overlook the ni-gun B-camp.

The biggest competition is at second base and lots of unknown players to the world in K. Kaneko, Sato, Yamada and Yamanobe can all take the spot with Hideto Asamura gone.

Castillo and Mejia in ni-gun camp shows what the Lions are thinking of both players as depth with the latter being paid a hefty amount in a contract year. Castillo could crack a rotation spot, but took a big pay cut to stay with the Lions after he was injured in the second half.

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Follow us on Twitter @GraveyardBall
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Friday, January 11, 2019

Takagi and Saito work for goals, visions while in Australia


The Saitama Seibu Lions continued their partnership with the Melbourne Aces of the ABL in Australia for the eighth consecutive season. This year's crew featured two pitchers entering with different stages in their careers in Hayato Takagi and Hiromasa Saito.

Takagi, 29, was the Lions' free agent compensation selection from the Yomiuri Giants after they signed Ryoma Nogami after the 2017 season. Both players nearly had the same upside in this swap, but Takagi had a rough 2018 at the ichi-gun level with only one quality start and being unable to find a role.

"In the Central League, they use a lot of [bunting] and more small ball," Takagi said from an interview in November. "With the Pacific League, the hitters swing harder. I have to throw harder than I was throwing in the Central League."

This trip was a chance for a redemption path for Takagi who is looking to crack either a rotation or bullpen role with the Lions ichi-gun in 2019. In six starts for the Aces, he had a productive stretch, going 3-1 with a 3.74 ERA which included a seven-inning complete game.

With Yusei Kikuchi going to the Seattle Mariners via the posting system, Takagi's window is open for a rotation spot in a mix with Ken Togame, Kona Takahashi and Makoto Aiuchi as well as first-round draft pick Wataru Matsumoto. He will also be reunited with former Giant Tetsuya Utsumi, who was taken as an free agnet compensation for the loss of Ginjiro Sumitani.

Saito, 23, got a brief taste of ichi-gun action in 2018, but didn't get his first call up until June and made only one spot start to end the regular season. He had one win as a reliever and was used as a swing man in middle relief, but couldn't stay up the entire year.

"Personally, I didn't do well in the first season for my professional career, but as a team, the Lions won the Pacific League Pennant, so that's the greatest moment of my professional career," Saito said.

In the six weeks with the Aces, Saito was one of several reliable arms in the bullpen which gave a boost to the team. In 11 games and 16.1 innings of work in relief, he didn't give up a single earned run and had a WHIP of 0.73, giving up only six hits, six walks and two hit batters. Saito also finished five of the games while recording four holds and even a save.

As the team's 2017 first round draft pick, he knows there are some expectations from both fans and the Lions themselves. He said he isn't worried about what his role will be with the team and that he will be ready for any challenge ahead.

"[I'm not concerned] on what role I have to do for the Lions," Saito said. "Whatever the team needs, I can do it."

Both Saito and Takagi enjoyed their trip to Australia bringing up how interesting the food and animal experiences were. They saw koala and kangaroo up close, as well as tasting Vegemite, which is something Takagi thought tasted awful.

While the Lions have been long gone from the Aces since 2019 began, they definitely made an impact in the standings as manager Jon Deeble got the best out of them. Melbourne is currently in a race to try and win the Southwest division and will likely have a playoff spot.


Saito noted he wants to keep an ichi-gun job for the entire 2019 season in some capacity while both players hope to win another championship this year. After a successful business trip in Australia to boost the Aces and work on their game, everything resumes in February.

"Thank you very much for your support, please keep cheering us all over the world," Saito said.

===

Thank you very much to the Melbourne Aces, Steven Smith, interpreter Kobayashi-san and the Lions themselves for making this story possible. The full exclusive interview can be seen here. This interview took place in Adelaide during the second week of the ABL season. 



===

Follow us on Twitter @GraveyardBall
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Wednesday, January 9, 2019

NPB posting system: With Kikuchi in Seattle, who's next in line for MLB?


The Seattle Mariners signed Yusei Kikuchi through the posting system to ring in 2019 earlier this month. Now the question remains, who's next?

We'll help answer this question and place different categories on each player. The answers remain more complex given the situation, contract and team.

Some play for a team that doesn't post its players and they must reach nine years of service time to be an international free agent. Others are still very young and it would be foolish for the NPB to post him when there are several years of control left. Unfortunately, a few players were considered by are either old or past their prime to really do damage or have value.

I'll also insert some personal opinions on what I think these guys can end up being in MLB in a rational manner. As fun as some guys are in NPB, it may or may not translate over.

Here's what we currently have penciled in: 

Wait and see: 

There's potential, but also uncertainty. Some guys also have lots of control left in years. 

P Shota Imanaga (Yokohama DeNA Baystars): Imanaga came off a down year in 2018, but still has room to grow as he's 25. By the time he would want to be posted, he'd could be in his late 20s or early 30s and become rotation depth for a team in the future, but this is still looking way ahead.  

P Daichi Osera (Hiroshima Carp): Osera came off a breakout season after being a hyped first round pick many years ago. He's more than two years away from domestic free agent rights, but it's possible the Carp could post him, but no guarantees what he or the team wants. He's also the same Kikuchi's age and by the time he goes, he'll be likely 29 at the youngest. Could be rotation depth a few years from now. 

2B Ryosuke Kikuchi (Carp): This is a complex situation. R. Kikuchi is approaching domestic free agent rights after the 2019 season concludes and the free agency system would be better off for the Carp to walk rather than post him. The starting 2B is known for his elite defense, but he's also approaching 30 and won't get any younger, which means he'll lose a step by the time he steps on an MLB field. He also has to prove he can hit after having an ugly 2018 with his bat. 

If the Carp were to post him, they would get almost nothing financially in return because of the market with position players coming from Japan not being in high demand. His bat is also a question mark and on most teams he could be a defensive replacement. The reason he's listed here is because he openly seeks a posting from the Carp. We'll see what happens. 

1B Kotaro Kiyomiya (Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters): Kiyomiya was one of the most hyped up high school draft picks, where seven teams tried to go for his rights in 2017. With last year being his first in NPB, he has a long way to go to prove himself, but the talent is there for him to be a slugger down the line. This is a long term project where we won't hear conversation about Kiyomiya for about 6-7 years.  

P Katsuki Azuma (Baystars): Azuma came off a strong rookie season and with scouts being in love with left-handed pitchers, he delivered. Only problem? He's 23 and we have no idea what he is. Azuma could be a rotation starter in MLB six to seven years from now if he had interest to be posted, but it's still too early to call. 

P Takahiro Norimoto (Tohoku Rakuten Eagles): Norimoto has been the Eagles' ace since Masahiro Tanaka left for the Yankees. For international play, he's been used as a reliever and it's possible MLB scouts like his pitching in spurts, rather than starts. Norimoto himself said he is putting priority on the 2020 Olympics and not MLB, so he isn't interested in posting at the time being. Logically, he could be posted after the 2020 season for 2021, where he'll be 30 by then. He could be rotation or bullpen depth depending on how the scouts see him.

OF Seiya Suzuki (Carp): Suzuki has been a key piece of the Carp outfield and will likely need to carry them with the team recently losing Yoshihiro Maru in free agency. If the Carp lived up to their penny pinching reputation, they could post before he reaches domestic free agency in 2-3 years, but like R. Kikuchi, it wouldn't make sense with the posting fee so small. It will be a matter of if Suzuki him wants to go or not, but he has potential after three seasons of nearly 30 HRs a piece. 

===

Free agents: 

These are guys who will be older in age and likely will be past their prime years, but should draw interest once they reach nine years of service team for international free agent rights. 

P Kodai Senga (Fukuoka Softbank Hawks): Senga is arguably the most intriguing pitcher in Japan, but playing for the Hawks will hold him back from any chance at MLB in his peak years. He'll be 26 in January, but he won't have international free agent rights until 2023. Assuming he isn't posted, Senga will be 31 by the time he plays his first MLB game in 2024. Senga has asked to be posted in the past, but the Hawks won't budge.  

P Tomoyuki Sugano (Yomiuri Giants): Sugano repeated with his second consecutive Sawamura Award and even without it, he was statistically Japan's top pitcher. He can do damage now, but he won't get international free agent rights until after the 2021 or 2022 season at the earliest. He'll be 32 or 33 by the time he plays his first MLB game, but there should be interest. 

OF Shogo Akiyama (Saitama Seibu Lions): Usually an aging veteran wouldn't be here, but Akiyama will be an international free agent after the 2019 season and already turned down an extension beyond that. While he didn't make any comments for what happens in 2020. it could be a hint that he wants to take a shot at MLB. A leadoff hitter in Japan, Akiyama is capable of reading pitches and getting on base, but does it translate to the MLB level? As said before, position players would be cheap and he would take less money for an opportunity.

OF Yuki Yanagita (Hawks): Yanagita came off an MVP caliber season in 2018, but his contract will not end until the 2021 season concludes. He'll have international rights for 2022 when he's 32. It's unclear what kind of interest MLB will have, but there's a good chance he would want a chance to play stateside.

P Kazuto Taguchi (Giants): Taguchi turns 24 in September and had a down season for 2018. Given that he's already had more than three years of service time means he has potential down the line, when he'd either be 30 or 31 by the time he reaches international free agency. He has plenty of time on his hands to turn things around and it's possible 2018 was an anomaly.

P Nick Martinez (Fighters): Martinez has a decent first year in Japan and was a front end rotation starter for the Fighters. He signed a one-year deal to return in 2019, but anything can happen after that if he puts in another decent season. He would be 30 in 2020 and the opportunity is there to go back to MLB like Colby Lewis and Miles Mikolas before him.

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Guaranteed to be posted: 

OF Yoshitomo Tsutsugo (Baystars): Tsutsugo openly admitted that he wants to play in the majors last November. He has plenty of raw power, even though the numbers are a little inflated given Yokohama's ballpark. If he were to be posted after 2019, he'll be 28 and making the adjustments to MLB will be tricky given the fastballs he would see. Scouts question his athleticism for a large guy playing in the outfield and it's also a concern if MLB teams see him as a 1B or only a power hitting DH.

Is there potential? Yes, but guarantees for position players are always slimmer given how much they need to transition. There's a very good chance the Baystars let him go if he desires it.

2B Tetsuto Yamada (Tokyo Yakult Swallows): Yamada rebounded in 2018 with a Triple-3 season (.300, 30 HR and 30 SB) after a dismal 2017. He turns 27 this year and is the most intriguing position player in Japan, but the later he leaves, the more of a decline we could see in his play. It's unclear if or when the Swallows will post him, but it's likely he wants an opportunity. He doesn't reach domestic free agency until after 2020, but it's possible the Swallows will let him go if he wants to. The power numbers won't translate to MLB, but he can easily hit gappers and is athletic enough to stay in the majors.

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Conclusion:

The Chiba Lotte Marines, Hanshin Tigers, Orix Buffaloes and Chunichi Dragons failed to make this list. That of course doesn't mean anyone isn't talented enough for future considerations, but keeping this list tight is necessary to not give false hope. Some guys are either too old or raw and haven't proven themselves enough. In some cases like Shintaro Fujinami, MLB scouts are likely turned off by his control issues which wouldn't stem well across the Pacific Ocean.

Anyone we might have disagreed with? Let us know.

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Saturday, January 5, 2019

Kikuchi gets flexibility, assimilation perks by signing in Seattle


The Seattle Mariners signed Yusei Kikuchi on January 3 to a complicated contract. At minimum, it is a three-year, $43 million deal guaranteed with two special clauses.

When the three years are up, Seattle has the right to extend his contract by four years for $66 million through the 2025 season. If this team option is declined, Kikuchi can make himself a free agent or take a one-year, $13 million player option for 2022.

On paper, this gives flexibility on both ends and lets the process play itself out. The losers in all of this are the Saitama Seibu Lions, who posted him on the market last December. As Jim Allen pointed out, the Mariners will save some money if the four-year team option kicks in by waiting, rather than a signing a straight up 7-year deal. From percentages going down, there's no interest involved and in the short term, the Lions will make less than $10 million from the $43 million guaranteed up front.

There were several takeaways from Yusei Kikuchi's press conference which can be seen below.

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Mariners General Manager Jerry Dipoto revealed that Kikuchi will be eased into the rotation for his first year to get acclimated on a traditional 5-day rotation. It's clear this was the top selling point as to why Kikuchi and his agent Scott Boras picked the Mariners over other teams.

As NPB fans know, Japan will have starting pitchers go once a week as opposed to every four or five days. This also means pitch count is significantly higher for a starter with less concern because of the longer break time in NPB.

While Kikuchi will have his starts every five to six days, the Mariners will ease him in for 2019 and it's likely he could function as an opener or be on a pitch count for a select number of games. Dipoto said they wouldn't be conservative in this approach, but it's likely they could set it up for once a month where he partakes in a bullpening game.

The Mariners can afford to do this because they are openly rebuilding with the recent trading of Robinson Cano and James Paxton. Seattle currently has the longest playoff drought in all four major North American Sports Leagues (NHL, MLB, NFL, NBA) as well as NPB combined with their last postseason year being in 2001, the first season of Ichiro Suzuki.

With the recent core showing they couldn't get it done and Felix Hernandez showing signs that he is past his prime, Dipoto made the right call to build for the future and got a decent package in return for Paxton while also dumping an albatross contract with Cano.

Other major league teams reportedly offered Kikuchi seven-year deals, but wanted him to help their rotation right away for every five days. It's likely the New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers, Boston Red Sox and Philadelphia Phillies all had higher financial offers on the table, but Kikuchi and Boras went with long term career over economic gains.

In Seattle, the pressure won't be as extreme as New York or Philadelphia despite the starving fan base waiting for a postseason. Yes, there will be talks about comparisons to his fellow countrymen from Ichiro to Hisashi Iwakuma to Kazuhiro Sasaki and more, but Kikuchi is embracing it. It doesn't hurt that city of Seattle sells itself given its connections to Japan. He'll be right at home.

Kikuchi speaking in English and practicing since high school can also lead to a good impression with his stateside teammates and staff. Sure, it's easy to be in your comfort zone behind an interpreter as any foreigner going to Asia does, but he clearly tried to limit his use of Japanese in his opening presser. Even Boras himself said he never met a player making this kind of effort.

The only drawback and possible catch to Kikuchi is health. He's had plenty of injury prone history from shoulder pain to elbow stiffness. Prior to the 2015 season, he was already viewed by some as a bust for not staying healthy, not showing signs of an ace and beginning the year in ni-gun despite all the hype he received out of high school.

It wasn't until 2017 where Kikuchi put a full season together while being healthy and nearly won the Sawamura Award, which is viewed as one of Japan's top pitching honors. Most recently, he missed one month in 2018 where he played through a shoulder injury.

It's also easy for the talks about Shohei Ohtani being that he's in the same division as the Mariners with the Los Angeles Angels.  The Japanese crowd will get it just as much because of their high school connection to Hanamaki Higashi, where Kikuchi was the predecessor to Ohtani.



They saw each other quite a bit in the Pacific League and most notably, Ohtani outdueled Kikuchi on the final day of the 2016 regular season, where the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters won the pennant thanks to a 1-0 victory over the Lions. 

The tradition of Japanese players in Seattle continues, while Kikuchi will given the best opportunity to adapt to the Major League game. There is nowhere near the same fanfare that Ohtani received nor does he have the same upside or talent, but as a late bloomer who was once viewed as an injury-prone bust, Kikuchi can finally shine and accomplish his dream of MLB and doing it on his terms.

Best of luck, Yusei.

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