Thursday, January 31, 2019

Seibu Lions 2019 Spring Training Outlook: Rotation


The Saitama Seibu Lions will enter 2019 with rotation uncertainty and a possible revolving door. Yusei Kikuchi was posted and signed with the Seattle Mariners while others haven't proven to be a true ace.

There have been changes with a few incoming and hopes that some prospects emerge. Here's how things stand as Spring Training began in Miyazaki today:

Locks: 

Shinsaburo Tawata: After becoming the wins leader in 2018, Tawata will have all the expectations for 2019 to be the next ace. Crazy enough, his first full season of being healthy had some of the worst strikeout rates, but he was good at weaker contact and benefited from a strong infield.

Daiki Enokida: Enokida proved to be a steal after the Lions acquired him via a swap for Yosuke Okamoto. It's safe to say the Lions will win that trade, but Enokida did well mostly against the Chiba Lotte Marines and Rakuten Eagles. The Lions hope he can keep up what he did in 2018, but on paper, it's not sustainable if he's seeing the Softbank Hawks more often. Should be a No. 3 pitcher.

Tatsuya Imai: Imai played quite a few ichi-gun games last season after having zero in 2017 thanks to an injury. He went through the classic ups and downs that a young pitcher goes through, mostly with his control being inconsistent. Lions are hoping he can make progress from last year in his age 21 season.

Tetsuya Utsumi: Utsumi was the compensation selection by the Lions when they lost Ginjiro Sumitani in free agency. While he isn't young, the team thinks he can help in the rotation immediately. If he can eat innings and serve as a back end starter while staying at the ichi-gun,the Lions will take it. He could be a Type B free agent after the season is over.

Zach Neal: Neal is the only new import signing by the Lions from this offseason. Barring no injury or poor preseason, he will start at the ichi-gun level. He has good control, but how will his location look with Japanese hitters?

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Reserves: 

Kona Takahashi: Once a touted first round draft pick, Takahashi took a step back in 2018 and didn't play an ichi-gun game until the second half as a spot starter. Others already jumped in front of him on the depth chart, but he is still only 22.

Hayato Takagi: The former Yomiuri Giant struggled in his first season against Pacific League hitters last year. In Australia, he said he needs to throw harder against the aggressive style that the Central League didn't have. Could spot starter or move to the bullpen.

Wataru Matsumoto: The Lions first round draft pick from last October should get some ichi-gun time in his true rookie season. He has good velocity, but what does his control look like?

Kaito Awatsu: Awatsu modeled his pitching style after Tetsuya Shiozaki, who is now in the Lions front office. He has an outside shot to earn a spot starter role, but could also move to the bullpen.

Keisuke Honda: Honda has looked good outside of a Lions uniform at the ichi-gun level. From the U23 Samurai Japan team from 2016, to the Melbourne Aces and in ni-gun last year, he has done well. Unfortunately this hasn't translated to NPB and time could be running thin if he can't crack ichi-gun games soon.

Ken Togame: Togame continued his trend of having a good year followed by a bad season. Based on what happened in 2018, he should have a good 2019.

Chun-Lin Kuo: The Lions used Kuo late last season as a spot starter to only face the Softbank Hawks, which is a team he did well against in 2015. He was serviceable, but hasn't done well enough to be a rotation regular.

Fabio Castillo: Castillo did well in the first half of 2018, but poor closer troubles forced him to move to the bullpen. Once he became the closer, he faltered and an injury hampered his season as a whole. He took a pay cut to return and is now on the outside fighting for ichi-gun time. Could be a decent spot starter.

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Farm/Ikusei:

Kaima Taira: The young Okinawan played his first year of pro baseball in ni-gun and will likely do the same given he was drafted straight out of high school. He hopes to improve his velocity and control, but can pack a punch for a 19 year old.

Koki Fujita: Fujita's career started slow thanks to an injury in 2016, but he has been playing more ni-gun games. A 9th round draft pick from 2015 who turns 22 in December, he hopes to earn more playing time.

Yutaro Watanabe: Watanabe was the Lions second-round draft pick out of high school last October. The team viewed him as a fallback first round option, but he fell to the late second-round, creating good value to the Lions management and draft board. He's tall, but will have plenty of room to grow both in pitching and physically.

Jiyu Okubo: The second-round ikusei pick from last fall is one of the tallest players on the team at 198 cm (6' 8"). Velocity is lacking and the Lions see him as an unfinished project. He just finished high school and will be looking to earn a promotion to the 70-man roster.

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Outlook: 

The Lions can pencil in the five players as locks barring no injury. They can easily play the matchup for the 6th starter if they want, as there won't be any rush to set a 6-man rotation until later. Competition will play itself out, but there is no true ace on this team entering the season.

In the long run, the Lions need Imai, Matsumoto or Takahashi to step it up as they were the first round picks. The good thing is how there are plenty of options for the rotation and still upside on multiple pitchers. They don't need to be dominant, but adequate enough to go five or six innings.

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Here's the poll results we made on Utsumi:





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Other positions in Series: 

Catcher

Infield

Outfield

Bullpen

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