The 2019 NPB Season is about a month away from beginning. While training camp is nearly done and preseason starts soon, there are plenty of questions regarding every team.
For any sport, there is always the thought of which authoritative figure could be gone after the year if there is a poor performance ahead, or as stateside fans say, the hot seat. Some sports like hockey and soccer will go by current results and fire someone if losing is extreme in the middle of the season.
Manager in NPB aren't necessarily "fired", but could have a forced resignation if things go south. Last year, we thought up to four managerial changes would happen, but five took place instead with our #11 ranked manager resigning midseason.
Here are the factors we'll look at and analyze on each team's manager which determines our rankings, with the warmest seat listed first:
What have you done for me lately?: Firings usually happen due to a lack of winning more times than not. Looking at a manger's track record is good, but the window within the last few years is where it matters most when making a bold decision.
Situation: Not all managers are there to win now. How does he do with the talent around him? Is the team supposed to contend or rebuild? Does the manager serve his purpose for a period of time before he's expendable?
Surroundings/Scenery: Is there Wa/和 among the manager and the players? Does he make the right moves at the right time? Which market are they managing in?
As we rank these managers from 1-2, we'll also throw in an imaginary temperature for the hot seat where anything hotter than boiling water (212 °F, 100 °C) has a better chance of change if there is failure in 2019.
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1. Alex "Rami-chan" Ramirez (Yokohama DeNA Baystars)
For a team that went to the Japan Series in 2017, the Baystars took a plunge and resembled a B-class group in 2018. While there were spurts of wins, they couldn't string consistency together and regression took place as a whole. Pitching had injuries, offense was dependent on a few individuals and they couldn't beat the last-place Hanshin Tigers.
To his credit, Rami-chan did not throw any players under the bus and generalized why this team was coming short. However, the pressure is on for 2019 and he can't afford to repeat a similar season to last year. The Baystars have had a losing record in two of the last three years and were only close last season due to some poor competition in the Central League. For now, this is only a group that has shown they can play well in October, but not before it. Temperature: 500 (°C), 932 (°F)
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2. Tadahito Iguchi (Chiba Lotte Marines)
The Marines looked to be competitive through the first half of 2018, but a poor second half which had the worst record from the All-Star Break at 19-44-1. Injuries hurt them, but Ayumu Ishikawa's regression in the second half had a trickle down effect on the bullpen collapsing with the rest of the team. It didn't help to have Takashi Ogino hurt through an accident, but last year's record was unacceptable regardless.
More terrace seats to move the fences in should help the team's power numbers as both Brandon Laird and Kennys Vargas look to bolster the lineup. Offense needs to improve, but the bullpen is the largest concern of the bunch. Chiba was only good for one half until reality sunk in and the team arguably quit when they lost 14 in a row at home to end the season. Temperature: 200 (°C), 392 (°F)
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3. Yosuke Hiraishi (Rakuten Eagles)
Hiraishi was the interim manager after Masataka Nashida resigned when the Eagles were 20 games under .500 in June of 2018. The Eagles removed the interim tag and named him the full time manager for 2019, but there are still concerns over what could happen ahead. There was an early response and competitive baseball in the summer, but it all faded in August and September. Question marks continue with this team if 2017 was a fluke or if 2018 is what the team really is. As long as the team competes, he's likely safe, but some failure could lead to a change. Temperature: 80 (°C), 158 (°F)
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4. Akihiro Yano (Hanshin Tigers)
Yano lead the Tigers to a farm championship last year as the ni-gun manager and was promoted to the ichi-gun position following the dismissal of Tomoaki Kanemoto. By default of being in the Kansai market and ruthless media/fans alike, Yano's head is automatically turned on no matter what in Year 1.
Expectations remain high for a market starving for a championship. That being said, one and done is very unlikely unless there is a major disruption from within. There is pressure, but his job should be safe after 2019 no matter what. Temperature: 45 (°C), 113 (°F)
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5. Hideki Kuriyama (Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters)
Kuriyama lead his team to A-class without Shohei Ohtani while the team showed they can reload. While they could fall to B-class given a tough competition ahead, it's unlikely he'd be forced out by management. Kuriyama is in a position where he can retire when he wants to without question. Temperature: 30 (°C), 86 (°F)
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6. Tsuyoshi Yoda (Chunichi Dragons)
The Dragons underwent a minor shift as Shigekazu Mori is now in the front office. Their collective front office management got their man in Yoda, who was once a rookie of the year for the Dragons in 1990. Yoda's previous title in 2018 was farm pitching coach for the Rakuten Eagles.
Despite the lack of coaching experience, Yoda is a fresh face for a team that has needed a face lift from the previous regime. The only pressure is how the Dragons have the longest A-class drought, being stuck on 2012. At six years, this is the longest B-class stretch in franchise history. It's doubtful he goes one and done. Temperature: 23 (°C), 74.3 (°F)
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7. Norifumi Nishimura (Orix Buffaloes)
The Buffaloes promoted Nishimura from within after Junichi Fukura stepped down under his own will. Nishimura's last managing gig was with the Chiba Lotte Marines and he led them to a Japan Series title in 2010. However, his success remained minimal after 2010 with consecutive B-class finishes afterwards.
Nishimura can manage anonymously given this is the Orix Buffaloes unlike their Kansai Central League counterparts. As said before, one and done is highly unlikely for any manager. Temperature: 20 (°C), 68 (°F)
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8. Hatsuhiko Tsuji (Saitama Seibu Lions)
Tsuji is coming off a pennant season and hasn't had a losing record as manager. However, the team is expected to regress in 2018 after a historic offensive year. The Lions already gave him a vote of confidence with his contract running through 2020, as opposed to year by year.
A few out there think the Lions won last year in spite of Tsuji, not because of him. This year should be an interesting test one way or another. Temperature: 17 (°C), 62.6 (°F)
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9. Koichi Ogata (Hiroshima Carp)
Ogata won the pennant for the third consecutive year and made the Japan Series in two of the last three seasons. Unfortunately, he hasn't won the big championship yet as it eludes him, like the Central League for most of the 21st Century.
While the team had its share of losses, the Carp are still expecting to be a strong force with their current core. A step backwards could happen, but a downward plummet? Doubtful. Temperature: 15 (°C), 59 (°F)
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10. Tatsunori Hara (Yomiuri Giants)
Hara returns to managing the Giants for the third time and first seasons since 2015. Lots of things have changed in the game since he left, but the Giants will be expecting Hara to lead them back to relevance after the last two mediocre seasons under Yoshinobu Takahashi.
in 2018, he was elected to the Hall of Fame as a manager while barely coming up short as a player. Given his past seniority accomplishments, the Giants won't do anything unless a scandal happens. Underachieving will have backlash from fans, but nothing from management should force the hand here. Temperature: 10 (°C), 50 (°F)
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11. Junji Ogawa (Tokyo Yakult Swallows)
Ogawa returned as manager from the front office as a caretaker for the Swallows and led them to a second place finish in 2018. This is likely to be the transitional year where Shinya Miyamoto or someone else from within takes the reins after the season and Ogawa moves back to the front office.
With the team competing while rebuilding, there shouldn't be heat for Ogawa as he is there to take the bullet. Even if the Swallows fall to B-class, he will have served his purpose and won't have a forced resignation. Ogawa will just move back to the front office when his time is done. Temperature: 2 (°C), 35.6 (°F)
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12. Kimiyasu Kudo (Fukuoka Softbank Hawks)
Kudo has won a Japan Series in three of his four years managing the team and they're currently back-to-back defending champions. He is chasing to be the all-time leader in Japan Series rings, currently at 14 as the record is held by Masaaki Mori at 17. Mori was Kudo's manager during the Golden Era with the Lions. With all this success, hangovers will happen, but it's unlikely he'll be going anywhere anytime soon. Temperature: -273 (°C), -460 (°F). This is also known as Sub zero or (°0) Kelvin.
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Overall:
We could see as many as three managerial changes if the worst case scenario plays out for the top three listed squads. Everyone else is unlikely to leave unless health or another issue arises. Of course extreme losing could poke the bear for any forced change in staff. It will be interesting to see how this plays out, but it's clear cut who has the most pressure in 2019.
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