The Saitama Seibu Lions enter the 2024 season with high personal expectations. However, most pundits don't see an A-class finish given the recent track record.
Their rotation has potential to carry this team and becomes the most intriguing unit with the mix of Kona Takahashi, Chihiro Sumida, Tatsuya Imai, Kaima Taira, Wataru Matsumoto and even first round rookie Natsuki Takeuchi. They may even throw out Bo Takahashi to the unit.
Last season's flaws came on offense and bullpen, where those who don't make the rotation should help the latter.
Gone is David MacKinnon, where the Lions chose to sign Jesus Aguilar in favor of his potential for pop. The Lions also took flyers on pitchers Jefry Yan and Albert Abreu who could contribute to the bullpen.
OF Franchy Cordero is an extreme hit or miss, where making contact is important.
For the bullpen, Hiroshi Kaino comes as compensation for the loss of Hotaka Yamakawa with high expectations.
Tatsushi Masuda had an awful 2023 and enters this season in a contract year. Shunsuke Sato should be reliable while it would help if Albert Abreu can take a key role. Jefry Yan is a long shot in spite of his celebration antics.
Domestically, the Lions are hoping for a mature Takuya Hiruma into the outfield and being an everyday player. Can Yuto Koga's bat improve when his defense was strong? Ginjiro Sumitani is back as a veteran mentoring the young.
Only Shuta Tonosaki and Sosuke Genda are regular ichi-gun position players.
The Competition
Looking at the Pacific League as a whole, there's a way to break down each opponent in a simplified manner. Who has expectations and who doesn't?
Rakuten Eagles
2023 head-to-head record: 14-10-1
Core Four: IF Hideto Asamura, P Takahisa Hayakawa, OF Ryosuke Tatsumi, P Takayuki Kishi
Outlook: The Eagles came off a disappointing fourth place finish and lost their chance at the postseason on the final day of the regular season by losing at home to the Chiba Lotte Marines.
In a strange situation, Kazuhisa Ishii stepped away from manager with Toshiaki Imae promoted to manager after being a hitting coach.
On the field, they've had an aging rotation where Masahiro Tanaka took a decline and Takahiro Norimoto is switching to a closer role after the loss of Yuki Matsui to the San Diego Padres. From failing to build from within, the Eagles have been forced to sign players to fill holes and this year is no different with import retreads in Nik Turley and Cody Ponce as additions.
This team has enough to be mediocre or even in A-class, but many will point to the problems of this organization from within. We've made comparisons in the past that the Eagles are the Los Angeles Angels of Japan due to owner, Hiroshi Mikitani being too hands on and mirroring the latter in Arte Moreno in the baseball operations department.
The Eagles also became exposed over bullying within the organization and a video was shown where Masahiro Tanaka was laughing over something and was forced to apologize. Tomohiro Anraku was used as a scapegoat for the bullying, but there is no signs the culture has changed in spite of his ousting and going to Mexico.
Most would say with the pitching being arguably the worst in the league, they have no chance at A-class, but their hitting can spoil some games..
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Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters
2023 head-to-head record: 16-9
Core Four: OF Chusei Mannami, OF Go Matsumoto, P Takayuki Katoh, P Hiromi Itoh
Outlook: This season is put up or shut up for manager Tsuyoshi "Big Boss" Shinjo as he enters Year 3. For 2022, he was given a pass for being experimental and innovative to figure out which players can fit in different roles. Now, the excuses are fading with two consecutive last place finishes, including a bad 13-gane losing streak in the middle.
Kotaro Kiyomiya enters his age 25 season where injuries and performance have fizzled his development up to this point. If he can put a full season together sooner, he will never be the star the team and fans envisioned him at drafting.
Even with the loss of Naoyuki Uwasawa to MLB, the starting pitching should still be fine as long as Kenta Uehara has a full season. They re-added Drew VerHagen as well as Sachiya Yamasaki from the Orix Buffaloes to fill out the rotation.
Problem is, can Big Boss manage properly without being too much of a gimmick? Players are all over the place including several former catchers in the field. Attention to detail also hurting as there were several one run losses in that losing streak from bad base running to a bad pitch.
Breathing down Shinjo's neck is GM Atsunori Inaba, who is also taking farm manager duties in Kamagaya for the season. Don't be surprised if the former Samurai Japan manager who was in charge of the 2020 Olympics is lined up for 2025.
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Chiba Lotte Marines
2023 head-to-head record: 9-16
Core Four: OF Gregory Polanco, IF Neftali Soto, P Kazuya Ojima, P Roki Sasaki
Outlook: One could argue the Marines underachieved in spite of winning a playoff series in 2023. There was no one good in the Pacific League except the champion Orix Buffaloes and the Marines were trailing in pile of mediocrity and trash among other teams.
For all the hype of Roki Sasaki and media attention he received for his holdout, the war isn't over as we won't know what parameters were signed for the 2024 season. The rumors of him leaving for MLB remain high when leaked reports said he wanted to come early before he's 25, sacrificing millions of it happened. He'll need to put a full ace-like season of work (150+ innings) which he has yet to accomplish.
Offensively, the Marines need to rely on imports who came from other teams as Polanco and Soto previously played for the Yomiuri Giants and Yokohama DeNA Baystars, respectively, but the former had success last season in Chiba.
What's really bad is Katsuya Kakunaka leading the team in OPS among Japanese players with at least 90 games played, the Marines were structured to move on from the old guard into the youth, but the latter hasn't progressed as one would hope.
Taiga Hirasawa is a bust while many are waiting on Kyota Fujiwara and Hisanori Yasuda to emerge.
If the recent draft picks of the last four years can come together and develop, this team is a lock for A-class, but it will hinge on the offense.
Starting pitching is still a strength beyond Sasaki as Kazuya Ojima and CC Mercedes can eat up innings. It wouldn't hurt if Atsuki Taneichi can put in an ace-like season, as he was thought to be this after 2019.
One thing that is very clear, they can't be written off as Masato Yoshii has shown to be a good manager and working with the best of his situation. Tadahito Iguchi, his predecessor, ended up making the worst bullpen decisions which led to a change after 2022. It could be a close tossup for A-class if the offense doesn't improve.
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Fukuoka Softbank Hawks
2023 head-to-head record: 12-13
Core Four: P Shunta Ishikawa, DH Kensuke Kondo, OF Yuki Yanagita, IF Ryoya Kurihara
Outlook: The Softbank Hawks had an injury riddled season that saw several players out, especially at the pitching level. In spite of this, they still competed and nearly won a postseason series only to blow it late against the Marines.
Gone is manager Hiroshi Fujimoto, who was there as a two-year caretaker, but also created a tense culture within the clubhouse. Hiroki Kokubo has been groomed for this moment, formerly in charge of Samurai Japan during the 2015 Premier 12 and 2017 World Baseball Classic. Would think he's learned a lot since those mistakes and working at the farm level.
While there is no true ace in the Hawks rotation, they still have plenty of depth and arguably the best top to bottom in this department when needing arms to carry the entire season. Kohei Arihara played his first season with the Hawks with success while it's possible Carter Stewart Jr. could have a breakout season. Even an old Tsuyoshi Wada can take 100+ innings into his 40s.
Their biggest acquisitions were in the field, signing Hotaka Yamakawa to an excessive contract when he came off controversy and a suspension. They also added Adam Walker, who was on the Giants.
There are always options from within they can reload and re-tool even without a true ace like the years of Wada's prime or Kodai Senga. With the new leadership of Kokubo, the switch should flip and they'll be back in contending status, but from a Lions standpoint, it was good to get a monkey off their back competing head to head better than previous seasons.
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Orix Buffaloes
2023 head-to-head record: 8-17
Core Four: P Hiroya Miyagi, P Shunpeita Yamashita, DH/C Tomoya Mori, IF Kotaro Kurebayashi
Outlook: Orix is the cream of the crop even without Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Sachiya Yamasaki leaving. Everything is slated for their rotation to still be loaded with Yamashita and Miyagi ready to go.
Offensively, they'll be above average but that might be enough to be No. 1 in the Pacific League given the state of the PL as a whole. Adding Nishikawa should provide stability to the outfield and while Yuna Tongu may have had a fluke 2023, he should be solid. Other veterans like Yuma Mune and Yutaro Sugimoto should be fine, but Kotaro Kurebayashi becomes the guy Orix needs for the long run to keep themselves atop of the Pacific.
Orix still has a strong bullpen with the usual suspects and with Satoshi Nakajima as the longest tenured manager in the PL, they should be contenders and a thorn for the Lions.
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Where the Lions finish and go?
Right now, it feels like the Lions could go anywhere from as high as second place if they have a strong offense to dead last if injuries pile up.
The rotation is too strong to put them in the cellar, but can offense do anything and execute? Also it will be a question on how Kazuo Matsui manages the bullpen, as his fixation on Minato Aoyama came back to bite and hurt the team. On paper, the Lions should be competitive, but it could come down to every game meaning something and the final week to determine if they're an A-class team or not.
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