The 2019 NPB Trade deadline is on July 31. However, we've seen a wave of trades come early in recent weeks as several teams are swapping ahead of time.
Through July 7, the Lions have not made a trade and haven't done a player-for-player swap since trading Yosuke Okamoto for Daiki Enokida prior to the 2018 season. Their last transaction was acquiring Ryuya Ogawa from the Chunichi Dragons for cash.
None of the trades have been blockbuster worthy, but it has been an interesting way to see how teams view the players they send off. A few might have traded to save face and not outright cut him (senryokugai) at the end of the year. Others just have no room on the roster or the team has no idea what to do with him.
Given how frequent these trades haven been in 2019, we've had to write a piece earlier than usual to project what the Lions could be thinking. Factoring in age and ichi-gun playing time is how we'll decide who is expendable, whether the Lions want cash or a player in return.
When it comes to cheap depth, the Lions could always use more pitchers whether it's for relief of a short starter or even a spot starter. They won't get anyone of quality, but the right change of scenery can find a contributor the way Ogawa and Enokida did in 2018.
Here is the list of players the Lions could trade or senryokugai at the end of 2019:
Note: First-year foreigners do not count.
OF Shogo Saito: In 2015, Saito had his peak season as the team's fourth outfielder, but hasn't replicated the same success since. The Lions have used him as a pinch runner and briefly called him up during interleague play this year. He is one of five Lions outfielders born in the 1980s, but has seen the least amount of ichi-gun playing time behind Masato Kumashiro, Takumi Kuriyama, Shogo Akiyama and Fumikazu Kimura. It's also clear the Lions want to move in a younger direction given Akiyama will likely sign with another team and the recent drafts picks need to develop. Saito is the odd man out.
IF Kyohei Nagae: Nagae used to be one of the top defensive replacement options off the bench. However, with others being drafted, Nagae has fallen down the depth chart given his inability to hit. Like the outfield, there are younger options available with more upside.
IF Daichi Mizuguchi: Mizuguchi was one of the better underdog stories on the Lions when he earned an ikusei promotion back in 2015. After being a decent part-time player in 2017, he has fallen out of favor with Ryusei Sato and Kakeru Yamanobe receiving more playing time. Now a 30-year old with only 95 ichi-gun games to his name, he doesn't have upside compared to the rest of the group.
P Deunte Heath: Heath is starting to get low leverage innings with others pitching in his place when the Lions have a lead. The 2018 closer has struggled in 2019 out of the gate when an injury set him back for a few weeks. Kyle Martin has been the top foreign option out of the bullpen and it's possible the Lions even deactivate Heath if they want a foreign spot starter.
P Fabio Castillo: The Lions brought Castillo back for depth after a promising first half of 2018. He regressed once the team made him a closer and an injury took him out for the second half. Castillo had surgery in the offseason and made his first ni-gun appearance in June. He could still be recovering from an injury, but it's unclear if he would take a low wage to return for 2020 again. We won't know the Lions decision on Castillo until the season ends.
1B/DH Ernesto Mejia: Mejia enters the final year of his three-year extension signed in the middle of the 2016 season. This extension has proved to be an expensive mistake as he has been the highest paid player for the last three years. The 2017 season saw the emergence of Hotaka Yamakawa which dropped Mejia to a part-time player status. He has mostly seen time as a pinch hitter and is unable to deliver in this role. The writing has been on the wall for awhile since Yamakawa took the everyday cleanup and 1B spot from Mejia. Deep down, the Lions wish they could find someone to take on the rest of his contract and I'm sure they'd be willing to take small cash considerations back in return.
IF Nien Ting Wu: Wu has been unable to get ichi-gun playing time with Sosuke Genda, Shuta Tonosaki, Kakeru Yamanobe and Ryusei Sato all leaping him on the infield depth chart. He saw some time in 2016 when the team wasn't playing well, but the Lions have mostly used him as a versatile utility player with him being in the outfield in ni-gun. With no room for him on the spot, it doesn't look so good for his baseball career. The Lions have a deep relationship with Taiwan, so it's unlikely he becomes a senryokugai, but on the field, it's doubtful he contributes at the ichi-gun level.
C Shota Nakata: Nakata has been a career ni-gun catcher for majority of his time at the NPB level. He has been injured since April and hasn't seen a game of action since. With the Lions already playing without him, there are plenty of younger options with more upside, including a recently promoted Masato Saito. He could serve as a coach, but as a player won't be doing much for the ichi-gun as Tomoya Mori and Masatoshi Okada have the main two spots.
P Tatsuya Oishi: Arguably the biggest bust in Lions history could finally be cut after the 2019 season. Injuries derailed his career early on and had issues cracking ichi-gun games. His highlights include being a decent reliever against righties in 2016-2017, but that has been it for someone who was once viewed as an ace by several teams an scouts. He currently holds a 5.51 ERA in ni-gun.
P Koki Fujita: Fujita is one of only two players from the 2015 draft class to not appear at the ichi-gun level. He has mostly struggled after spending majority of 2016 recovering from an injury. In 12.2 innings of work at ni-gun his ERA is 7.11. However, he turns 22 in December so he could still have a chance, but there are previous Lions who were senryokugai at the age of 23.
P Hirotaka Koishi: Koishi has been the pitcher to take mop up innings if the Lions were trailing. At age 32, there are younger pitchers who can fill this role and it's clear his ichi-gun time has diminished in favor of Ryosuke Moriwaki. He's the third oldest pitcher on the Lions roster behind only Tetsuya Utsumi and Daiki Enokida.
P Hayato Takagi: The Lions front office and fans alike thought they got a steal when taking Takagi as compensation for the loss of Ryoma Nogami in free agency. Instead, Takagi has been nothing but a disappointment after being thought of as a rotation starter. Pacific League hitters have destroyed whatever he's thrown and even in mop up duty for 2019, he still can't record outs. Having a senryokugai after two seasons would be losing face, but if a team was desperate for pitching depth, he could be a trade option.
P Shunta Nakatsuka: Nakatsuka has the fewest ichi-gun appearances among the 2016 Lions draft class and has found problems not fixing his control. He was viewed as a hard thrower with upside, but his control issue might be what he is with no end in sight. It's unlikely the Lions cut him, but a change of scenery would do him wonders.
P Tadasuke Minamikawa: A fifth-round shakaijin pick in 2015, Minamikawa has seen limited time at the ichi-gun and hasn't made the most of it when called up. Being one of the older draft picks from that class, his upside has disappeared at age 27 and it doesn't look like there's a role for him on the team.
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There could be even more guys on the bubble like Naoaki Matsumoto and Shogo Noda, but I'm giving those tow the benefit of the doubt. If anything, there are several guys who will likely not return in 2020 and at minimum, five players will become senryokugai.
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